By Kirk Maltais
--Wheat for July delivery fell 3.3% to $6.07 a bushel, on the Chicago Board of Trade on Monday, with traders continuing to sell on indications of increased Russian wheat exports available on the global market.
--Corn for July delivery rose 0.5% to $4.51 a bushel.
--Soybeans for July delivery rose 0.7% to $11.88 a bushel.
HIGHLIGHTS
Clamped Vise: Grain traders appear unwilling to hold long positions amid developments overseas, driving futures down today. U.S. traders are fearing increased competition from Russia for wheat following Turkey's suspension of imports at the start of the season, according to AgriTel in a note. Traders are also being cautious ahead of the USDA's WASDE report on Wednesday, said the firm--with analysts surveyed by The Wall Street Journal forecasting U.S. wheat production to rise roughly 30 million bushels from the USDA's previous forecast.
Late in the Game: Traders also focused on getting their positions in order ahead of this afternoon's Crop Progress report from the USDA - looking for indications of what late planting has been completed by farmers in the past week and what amount of the crop could be considered for prevented planting under farmers' crop insurance. "Most of the struggling areas should've had a decent window to get into the field in the latter half of last week and into the weekend, though this afternoon's report will reveal just how much progress was made," said Mike Castle of StoneX in a note. Castle adds that overall crop quality looks to be significantly better than this time last year, which is expected to keep pressure on CBOT grains.
INSIGHT
Lots to Choose From: Grain trading looks to stay tentative ahead of numerous data releases this week, said John Payne of Advance Trading in a note, with WASDE and CPI data Wednesday as well as the conclusion of the FOMC meeting. Brazilian crop agency Conab is also expected to release a report this week. "There remains a significant gap between estimates by those in Brazil against the USDA estimates," said Payne, adding that traders and analysts expect this gap to shrink this week.
Overcooked: Selling seen in wheat futures has brought futures close to below the $6 per bushel mark - which would be the lowest since early May. "Wheat is its own animal," said Virginia McGathey of McGathey Commodities. "It's a thinner market than corn and beans and what happens when the market gains momentum - it tends to overshoot its objective." McGathey adds that she sees the decline in wheat futures as 'overdone' and the most-active futures contract 'extremely oversold' - with the market looking for a catalyst to bid futures higher.
Zooming Out: Friday's Commitment of Traders report from the CFTC showed strong surges in short positions for corn and soybeans through June 4. Short positions in corn among managed money funds rose roughly 69,500 contracts, bringing the net short in corn to roughly 213,000. Soybean shorts rose roughly 37,000 contracts, to a net short of about 60,000. "The big jump in the fund short position last week has caught the trade a bit off guard and is a reminder that there are still plenty of fund managers that are comfortable being short soybeans for the time being anyway," said Tomm Pfitzenmaier of Summit Commodity Brokerage in a note regarding soybeans.
AHEAD
--The EIA will release its weekly ethanol production and stocks report at 10:30 a.m. ET Wednesday.
--The USDA will release its monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report at noon ET Wednesday.
--The USDA will release its weekly export sales report at 8:30 a.m. ET Thursday.
Write to Kirk Maltais at kirk.maltais@wsj.com
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
06-10-24 1516ET
