By Kirk Maltais


--Corn for September delivery rose 3.5% to $5.00 1/2 a bushel, on the Chicago Board of Trade on Thursday, with rainfall over the next few days expected to give way to hot and dry weather that may stress crops.

--Soybeans for November delivery rose 3.1% to $13.68 1/4 a bushel.

--Wheat for December delivery rose 1.2% to $6.40 1/4 a bushel.


HIGHLIGHTS


Watching Weather: Grain futures on the whole rose throughout the day, shedding losses from yesterday's WASDE report as attention returned to weather. "The forecasts are for good moisture for the next week, then less rain and some heat over the corn belt, although the heat doesn't show up until late in July," said Charlie Sernatinger of Marex in a note. Corn is getting most of the pricing support, with crops being in their key pollination phase over the next few weeks.

Hot Spots: Drought conditions are becoming more dire in some areas of the Midwest, with parts of Wisconsin and Missouri experiencing growing severe drought conditions, according to the latest data from the U.S. Drought Monitor. Nebraska and Kansas still suffer from severe drought, but those patches are shrinking versus last week. The data appears to reflect recent rainfall missing some growing areas while landing in other areas - a trend that traders may see as continuing as rainfall persists in the coming days.


INSIGHT


Tracking El Niño: A weak El Niño system came into place as of June, and is expected to gather strength heading into this winter, the Climate Prediction Center said in its latest outlook. The agency gives an over 90% chance for El Niño to continue into the winter, and an 81% chance for the winter system to be anywhere from moderate to strong. Grain markets have been keen observers of the developing system, attempting to forecast how it might affect crops growing this summer and being harvested this fall.

Slack Demand: The USDA said its quarterly stocks report shows demand for transportation dropping off. "U.S. grain stocks were left at 5.6 billion bushels on June 1," according to the weekly Grain Transportation Report. "This was down 9% from last year and down 21% from the 5-year average for June. Low grain stocks suggest grain transportation demand will remain muted until fall when corn and soybeans are harvested." The report also shows that weekly rail shipments of grains are down 26% from this time last year, and barge shipments are down 30%.


AHEAD


--The CFTC will release its weekly commitment of traders report at 3:30 p.m. ET Friday.

--Cal-Maine Foods will release its fourth-quarter earnings report Monday.

--The USDA will release its weekly grains export inspections report at 11 a.m. ET Monday.

--The USDA will release its weekly crop progress report at 4 p.m. ET Monday.


Write to Kirk Maltais at kirk.maltais@wsj.com


(END) Dow Jones Newswires

07-13-23 1555ET