By Kirk Maltais


--Corn for December delivery fell 5.9%, to $5.86 1/2 a bushel, on the Chicago Board of Trade on Friday, with traders pulling back on weather risk due to a wetter forecast for U.S. growing areas.

--Soybeans for November delivery fell 2.7%, to $13.02 a bushel.

--Wheat for September delivery fell 1.2%, to $7.50 a bushel.


HIGHLIGHTS


All Wet: Corn futures led grains lower in today's session. "The EU/Canadian weather models have gone wetter in their 10-day Midwest rain forecasts, while the GFS has gone drier into a key weather weekend," said AgResource in a note. With corn seen as being the most-affected by weather in the coming weeks, those futures are the most susceptible to moves on weather forecasts. "It will take substantially more rain than what is forecast over the next 10 days to diminish the drought, but CBOT weather markets are often determined with short term weather forecasts," said AgResource.

Slowing Demand: A sharp slowdown in European business activity this month put pressure on markets across the board, including CBOT grain futures. "The global economy is a major factor in the market today," said Karl Setzer of Mid-Co Commodities. A weak export sales report is also a factor pulling grains down, amid ongoing demand concerns. "We are also seeing more concerns over demand and how U.S. ending stocks could still increase next year, even with production losses," he said.

Dead Deal: The Black Sea Grain Initiative has been on unstable ground throughout this year, but market observers appear to be almost certain that the deal will come to an end next month. "One senior Ukrainian diplomat has even spoken of a 99.9% probability of Russia withdrawing from the agreement," said Commerzbank in a note. Exports on the Black Sea appear to be dwindling, and with crop conditions deteriorating worldwide, wheat prices are expected to rise in the coming months, the firm said.


INSIGHT


Another Dip: The next Crop Progress report from the USDA, due out Monday, is expected to show crop ratings dipping again, "albeit at a bit slower pace," said Arlan Suderman of StoneX. "Some Midwest crops are doing quite poorly, while others are doing quite well, depending on soil types and where the rain has fallen." The range of possibilities for crop yields going forward is wide, but continued dryness will likely derail crop production significantly, Suderman said.

Bean Binge: Export sales of U.S. soybeans hit the high end of trader forecasts for the week ended June 15, the USDA said today. Soybean sales across the 2022/23 and 2023/24 marketing years totaled 626,300 metric tons. That's up 98% from the prior 4-week average, the USDA said, and on the upper end of forecast from analysts surveyed by The Wall Street Journal this week, who forecast sales between 200,000 tons and 700,000 tons. However, sales for wheat and corn were low, per analyst forecasts.


AHEAD


--The USDA will release its weekly grains export inspections report at 11 a.m. ET Monday.

--The USDA will release its weekly crop progress report at 4 p.m. ET Monday.

--The EIA will release its weekly ethanol production and stocks report at 10:30 a.m. ET Wednesday.


Write to Kirk Maltais at kirk.maltais@wsj.com


(END) Dow Jones Newswires

06-23-23 1542ET