In my previous column on Wednesday morning, I complained that the market had become entirely fixated on a single topic, semiconductors, while oil had been pushed completely out of the conversation. We all know what happened next. The United States and Iran resumed exchanging strikes, Donald Trump said the ceasefire was over, and oil prices climbed to within touching distance of $80 a barrel. The moral of the story is that writing stock market columns is a bit like commentating on a football match. The moment you say a player is having a perfect game, he sends his next pass into the stands.

Yesterday's session ended in positive territory in both Europe and the United States. And, as is so often the case, a rebound in semiconductor stocks was behind the move. In Europe, ASML, BE Semiconductor and STMicroelectronics were among the strongest performers in the Stoxx 600. In the United States, Sandisk, Lam Research and AMD topped the leaderboard.

It has therefore been a particularly volatile week for the sector, which has alternated between steep falls and equally sharp rebounds. The market remains torn between the promise of AI and lingering doubts, not least because some share prices have already risen at a dizzying pace. Those swings are now affecting equity indices more broadly. The most striking example is South Korea's KOSPI, which entered a bear market, defined as a 20% decline from its peak, in the middle of the week, yet is still up more than 70% this year.

The other factor that has brought volatility back into the market this week is the situation in the Middle East. In the middle of the week, the United States and Iran exchanged strikes, while Donald Trump declared that the ceasefire was over. Tensions appeared to ease somewhat yesterday, however. At least, that is what the retreat in oil prices seemed to suggest. There were no fresh clashes, nor did Donald Trump make any comments on the subject over the past 24 hours, which is unusual enough to be worth mentioning. Investors are still holding on to the view that both the United States and Iran would prefer a negotiated settlement to a resumption of the conflict. According to Bloomberg, technical discussions between the two sides are still under way.

Today's session will be marked by the start of SK Hynix trading on Wall Street. The South Korean company raised $26.5 billion, making it the largest US share sale by a foreign issuer. More importantly, the IPO was more than seven times oversubscribed. That implies investor demand of at least $185 billion. It is a sign that enthusiasm for memory chips is far from fading, despite some sizeable corrections since the start of the month.

The other event on the agenda is Delta Air Lines' earnings release, which has been particularly interesting to follow in recent quarters. First, it reports before all the others, so it naturally attracts more attention. Second, the sector is exposed both to consumer demand and to geopolitical developments. Finally, there are often useful insights to be drawn from the comments made by its chief executive, Ed Bastian. We will reconvene around midday to find out whether these results are as relevant as I have promised, or whether this, too, turns out to be another pass into the stands.

Today's economic highlights:

Today: consumer confidence in Switzerland will be followed by monthly industrial production in Italy; In Canada, the unemployment rate, participation rate, employment change, as well as full-time and part-time employment changes will be released. See the full calendar here.

  • GBP / USD: 1.343
  • Gold: 4,117.38
  • Crude Oil (BRENT): 76.21
  • United States 10 years: 4.54%
  • BITCOIN: 64,005.9

In corporate news:

  • AstraZeneca: A US appeals court upheld a ruling in its favour in a patent case against a Pfizer unit.
  • e&: The group is to sell its stake in Vodafone to a French telecoms tycoon for nearly $6 billion.
  • Whitbread: The company secured approval for a development scheme in Norwich city centre.
  • Cint and WPP: The companies have partnered on a media impact measurement initiative in Latin America.
  • Airbus: Workers in Spain went on strike over working conditions.
  • UniCredit: The bank could reopen its Banco BPM dossier.
  • Intesa Sanpaolo, MPS, Commerzbank and UniCredit: Carlo Messina doubled down on MPS, while Bettina Orlopp said she was open to talks with UniCredit over a potential tie-up.
  • UniCredit: The bank's Libyan stake is now valued at €1.5 billion.
  • Air Liquide: The group will invest more than $200 million to expand production at Oxea's Texas site.
  • Volkswagen: The carmaker plans to reduce its model range and cut production capacity.
  • EMS-Chemie: First-half net sales declined, prompting the group to lower its FY2026 outlook amid currency headwinds.
  • Main earnings of the day: EMS-Chemie Holding, first half of 2026, and Tryg A/S.
  • ExxonMobil: The group and its partners will invest $1 billion in a Nigerian oilfield, according to the regulator.
  • Bank of America: The bank will redeem $2.6 billion of senior notes.
  • Chevron: The company signed a long-term gas supply agreement with Alinta Energy in Western Australia.
  • Goldman Sachs: The bank has banned employees from most prediction-market trading.
  • EQT, Advent and KKR: The investment firms are exploring a takeover of diagnostics company Qiagen, according to Bloomberg.
  • OpenAI: Fidji Simo, the company's head of AGI deployment, is set to step down.
  • SK Hynix: The company raised $26.5 billion in a Nasdaq IPO, setting a record for a foreign listing and seeking to reinvigorate the memory-chip rally.
  • Tencent and Manus: Tencent is in talks to become the AI start-up's largest shareholder, according to the Financial Times.
  • Main earnings of the day: MediaTek and Nanya Technology.
  • Main earnings today: Delta Air Lines, Hays and Schroder Real Estate Investment Trust.

See more news from UK listed companies here

Analyst Recommendations:

  • Intertek Group Plc: Rothschild & Co Redburn downgrades to neutral from buy with a target price of GBX 6200.
  • Astrazeneca Plc: Bernstein maintains its outperform rating and reduces the target price from GBX 18900 to GBX 18500.
  • The Weir Group Plc: Citi maintains its buy recommendation and reduces the target price from GBP 32.50 to GBP 31.50.
  • Integrafin Holdings Plc: Barclays maintains its overweight recommendation and raises the target price from GBP 4.40 to GBP 4.50.
  • Aj Bell Plc: Barclays maintains its equalweight recommendation and raises the target price from GBP 5.30 to GBP 5.90.
  • St. James's Place Plc: Barclays maintains its equalweight recommendation and raises the target price from GBP 13 to GBP 13.30.
  • Quilter Plc: Barclays maintains its underweight recommendation and raises the target price from GBP 1.70 to GBP 1.85.
  • Watches Of Switzerland Group Plc: Jefferies downgrades to hold from buy and raises the target price from GBX 440 to GBX 740.
  • Sage Group Plc: Morgan Stanley maintains its overweight recommendation and raises the target price from GBX 1110 to GBX 1125.
  • Rio Tinto Plc: JP Morgan maintains its neutral recommendation and reduces the target price from GBP 82.80 to GBP 82.50.
  • Shell Plc: Morgan Stanley maintains its equalwt recommendation and reduces the target price from GBX 3495 to GBX 3045.