An ultra-calm bond trading session in terms of volumes, but a clearly bearish trend in Europe, while the US markets are closed for the Martin Luther King's Day holiday on January 15.

OATs (2.733%) and Bunds (2.200%) are down on Monday by +5.5pts respectively, Italian BTPs and Spanish Bonos by +6.5pts, while the ECB seems very reluctant to let the markets expect a rate cut before next autumn (whereas many are hoping for one at the start of the 2nd half of the year).

The macro-economic agenda in the United States looks set to be quieter this week, with retail sales figures for the month of December the highlight of the week, providing an opportunity to gauge the health of consumer spending in the US.
The inflation figures published last Thursday, although disappointing, were well digested by the markets and were seen as 'non-events'.

The 'figure of the day' was published mid-morning in Europe: CVS industrial production in October and November 2023 fell by 0.3% in the eurozone and by 0.2% in the EU, according to Eurostat, following declines of 0.7% and 0.5% respectively between September and October.

In the eurozone, production of durable consumer goods fell by 2%, while production of non-durable consumer goods rose by 1.2%.
Over 1 year, the decline flirts with -6.8% in the Eurozone (-5.8% in the EU), which largely explains the contraction in GDP growth anticipated in Q4 in the Eurozone (led by a negative GDP of -0.3% in Germany at the end of 2023).

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