The dollar soared between +0.5% and +1.3% against the main reserve currencies.

The Dollar-Index climbed +0.55% to 104.88, its highest level since November 14, 2023, while the Euro retrograded symmetrically by 0.6% to 1.0710. But it was above all the Swiss Franc that let go at 0.8870 (and -0.7% against the Euro), while the Pound was a little weak, gaining only 0.25% against the greenback.
The latter is benefiting from a surge in yields since January 1.
The yield on T-Bonds has jumped +13pts to 4.3000% (+46pts since February 1), the 2-year has soared +15pts to 4.6200% (worst score since November 30, 2023 and the morning of December 13 respectively).... and the '30 yr' climbs +12Pts to 4.45% (worst score since December 4, 2023 and 50Pts above the December 27/2023 low).
All the above levels correspond to 'lows of the day' and of the year 2024 for T-Bonds.

This cold shower results from consumer prices rising slightly more than expected to 0.3% (vs. +0.2% estimated) in January, or 3.1% y-o-y (vs. 3.4% the previous month).

Core underlying inflation (excluding food and energy) came in at +0.4% last month (above the median forecast of +0.3%), giving an unchanged core annual inflation rate of 3.9% (vs. 3.7% or 3.6% expected).

In Europe, the deterioration in interest-rate markets is much more modest, as the ZEW business climate index in Germany recovers significantly, gaining a further 4.7 points in February to stand at +19.9: in reality, this concerns the 'outlook' (2/3 of business leaders are betting everything on the ECB rate cut this summer), as for the 'present situation', the ZEW continues to deteriorate: -4.4 points to -81.7, the lowest since June 2020.

In France, the unemployment rate in France (excluding Mayotte) as defined by the ILO (International Labor Office) came out at 7.5% of the working population in the last quarter of 2023, stable compared with the third quarter, whose estimate was raised by 0.1 points to 7.5%.
Unemployment among young people (under 24) is contracting slightly, but is increasing in the 30/45 age bracket.

To this mechanical factor, we must add the decline in productivity, which has been worsening in France for 10 years, and the global slowdown in growth... particularly in our main partner: Germany.


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