Zillow : Pockets of Affordable Housing Exist Within the Most Expensive Markets

SEATTLE, Jan. 27, 2017/PRNewswire / -- Even in metros where homebuyers have the biggest mortgage burdens, some cities within those metros provide relatively affordable housing options.

The San Josemetro has been one of the hottest housing markets in the country. Homebuyers in Palo Altocan expect to spend 75 percent of their income on a house payment. But just 15 miles away, buyers in Milpitas, Calif.need only spend 35 percent.

This example of disparity in the Silicon Valley demonstrates how hot housing markets are fueled by cities where high demand for jobs and amenities drive housing values to far outpace incomes. The phenomenon is one reason there is more inequality in very expensive markets.

Zillow's latest research on mortgage burdens at the city level illustrates how hot spots within popular housing markets have caused runaway housing costs that place significant burdens on the people who live and work there, even as the cities next door remain more affordable. However, choosing a more affordable city likely requires trade-offs, such as fewer amenities or longer commutes.

'The Bay Areaand other expensive West Coast markets get a lot of attention for being unaffordable, but even they have some areas where the share of income spent on housing is relatively low,' said Zillow Chief Economist Dr. Svenja Gudell. 'Of course, buyers have to be willing to make some trade-offs to live in more affordable cities within the metro. Some cities in the most in-demand housing markets across the country have such a high housing burden that they are simply not feasible for buyers with lower incomes. If income growth doesn't keep pace with home value growth, especially as mortgage rates rise, inequality will persist.'

In San Francisco, the flourishing tech industry and physical boundaries of the city have created a housing market with a high housing burden - buyers in San Francisconeed to spend nearly 54 percent of their income on mortgage payments. Across the bay, homebuyers in Oaklandfare a little better. Mortgage payments there require 42 percent of the typical household income.

Within the Seattlemetro, Bellevuebuyers would have to spend the greatest share of income on housing - 29.6 percent. Less than 10 miles away, Kirklandbuyers only need to set aside 22 percent of their income to pay their mortgage.

This phenomenon doesn't play out in less heated housing markets. Buyers in almost any part of the Kansas Citymetro, for example, can expect to spend between 7.3 percent and 13.2 percent of their income on a mortgage.

Similarly, buyers in the Las Vegasmetro can expect to spend between 14.4 and 18.9 percent of their income on mortgage payments, no matter which city they are in.

Buyers moving to the Detroitsuburbs will have similar mortgage burdens, with buyers having to spend between 10.2 and 15.3 percent of their income on mortgage payments. The city of Detroititself has the smallest mortgage burden in the country - just 5.9 percent of the typical income needed to pay the monthly mortgage.

Metropolitan Area	Metro-level Mortgage Burden, 2015	City with the Smallest Mortgage Burden, 2015	City with the Greatest Mortgage Burden, 2015
United States	14.6%	Detroit, MI - 5.9%	Palo Alto, CA - 75.4%
New York/Northern New Jersey	24.9%	Brentwood, NY -- 14.7%	Passaic, NJ -- 45.7%
Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, CA	39.7%	Lancaster, CA -- 18.5%	Santa Monica, CA -- 66.1%
Chicago, IL	14.0%	Gary, IN -- 6.8%	Evanston, IL -- 20.1%
Dallas-Fort Worth, TX	12.6%	Grand Prairie, TX -- 10.6%	Lewisville, TX -- 16.1%
Philadelphia, PA	14.2%	Camden, NJ -- 11.8%	Wilmington, DE -- 13.7%
Houston, TX	11.9%	Pasadena, TX -- 9.6%	Baytown, TX -- 9.9%
Washington, DC	17.8%	Waldorf, MD -- 13.1%	Washington, DC -- 29.9%
Miami-Fort Lauderdale, FL	19.5%	Lauderhill, FL -- 10.3%	Miami, FL -- 42.8%
Atlanta, GA	11.8%	Johns Creek, GA -- 14.0%	Sandy Springs, GA -- 26.4%
Boston, MA	21.7%	Lowell, MA -- 21.3%	Boston, MA -- 35.9%
San Francisco, CA	39.0%	Antioch, CA -- 21.9%	Berkeley, CA -- 58.4%
Detroit, MI	10.3%	Detroit, MI -- 5.9%	Rochester Hills, MI -- 15.3%
Riverside, CA	23.6%	Victorville, CA -- 18.1%	Upland, CA -- 35.2%
Phoenix, AZ	16.8%	San Tan Valley, AZ -- 12.0%	Scottsdale, AZ -- 23.6%
Seattle, WA	21.4%	Marysville, WA -- 16.2%	Bellevue, WA -- 29.6%
Minneapolis-St Paul, MN	13.8%	Maple Grove, MN -- 12.4%	Minneapolis, MN -- 17.1%
San Diego, CA	33.0%	Chula Vista, CA -- 29.5%	El Cajon, CA -- 39.4%
St. Louis, MO	11.0%	Saint Louis, MO -- 11.6%	Saint Charles, MO -- 12.7%
Tampa, FL	14.3%	Riverview, FL -- 11.3%	Clearwater, FL -- 16.0%
Baltimore, MD	15.5%	Baltimore, MD -- 11.8%	Ellicott City, MD -- 20.4%
Denver, CO	19.6%	Highlands Ranch, CO -- 16.3%	Denver, CO -- 25.0%
Pittsburgh, PA	10.6%	Pittsburgh, PA -- 11.1%	n/a
Portland, OR	20.8%	Hillsboro, OR -- 17.1%	Portland, OR -- 24.1%
Charlotte, NC	12.7%	Gastonia, NC -- 11.3%	Rock Hill, SC -- 14.9%
Sacramento, CA	23.3%	Elk Grove, CA -- 18.3%	Davis, CA -- 44.4%
San Antonio, TX	11.8%	New Braunfels, TX -- 14.3%	n/a
Orlando, FL	15.5%	Pine Hills, FL -- 10.5%	Kissimmee, FL -- 14.9%
Cincinnati, OH	11.1%	Cincinnati, OH -- 14.2%	n/a
Cleveland, OH	11.1%	Parma, OH -- 8.3%	Lorain, OH -- 8.3%
Kansas City, MO	10.8%	Kansas City, KS -- 7.3%	Overland Park, KS -- 13.2%
Las Vegas, NV	16.8%	Enterprise, NV -- 14.4%	Paradise, NV -- 18.9%
Columbus, OH	11.9%	Columbus, OH -- 10.7%	n/a
Indianapolis, IN	11.4%	Fishers, IN -- 8.5%	Carmel, IN -- 12.1%
San Jose, CA	39.4%	Milpitas, CA -- 34.8%	Palo Alto, CA -- 75.4%
Austin, TX	15.9%	Round Rock, TX -- 13.0%	Austin, TX -- 20.3%

Zillow
Zillow is the leading real estate and rental marketplace dedicated to empowering consumers with data, inspiration and knowledge around the place they call home, and connecting them with the best local professionals who can help. In addition, Zillow operates an industry-leading economics and analytics bureau led by Zillow's Chief Economist Dr. Svenja Gudell. Dr. Gudell and her team of economists and data analysts produce extensive housing data and research covering more than 450 markets at Zillow Real Estate Research. Zillow also sponsors the quarterly Zillow Home Price Expectations Survey, which asks more than 100 leading economists, real estate experts and investment and market strategists to predict the path of the Zillow Home Value Index over the next five years. Launched in 2006, Zillow is owned and operated by Zillow Group (NASDAQ:Z and ZG), and headquartered in Seattle.

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To calculate mortgage burden, Zillow first computes the monthly mortgage payment for the median-valued home in a city using the city-level Zillow Home Value Index for June of a given year and the 30-year fixed mortgage interest rate during that time period, provided by the Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey (based on a 20 percent down payment). Using one-year estimates of city-level median household income data from the U.S. Census Bureau's American Community Survey, Zillow calculates the proportion of monthly median household income that goes towards the monthly median mortgage payment for each city.
The share of the median household income required to pay the typical monthly mortgage payment.
Median household income is available for large cities only (populations over 65,000) and comes with a lag. As a result, Zillow does not produce a mortgage burden metric in smaller cities (with population under 65,000) or in cities for which we do not publish the Zillow Home Value Index. For these reasons, some metros only had one city for which mortgage burden was calculable.

SOURCE Zillow