Financials United Parcel Service Inc.

Equities

UPS

US9113121068

Air Freight & Logistics

Market Closed - Nyse Other stock markets 01:30:01 27/04/2024 am IST			5-day change	1st Jan Change
147.6 ^USD	+0.14%		+3.38%	-6.13%

26/04	North American Morning Briefing : Tech Still in -2-	DJ
25/04	UPS, FedEx Face Roadblocks in Electrification of Delivery Fleets	MT

Valuation

Fiscal Period: December	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026
Capitalization ¹	1,00,417	1,45,565	1,86,292	1,50,357	1,33,948	1,25,914	-	-
Enterprise Value (EV) ¹	1,16,494	1,64,309	1,97,952	1,64,417	1,50,140	1,44,880	1,45,664	1,47,550
P/E ratio	22.9 x	103 x	14.6 x	13.2 x	20.2 x	18.3 x	14.9 x	13.5 x
Yield	3.28%	2.4%	2.14%	3.55%	-	4.44%	4.55%	4.72%
Capitalization / Revenue	1.36 x	1.72 x	1.91 x	1.5 x	1.47 x	1.35 x	1.28 x	1.23 x
EV / Revenue	1.57 x	1.94 x	2.03 x	1.64 x	1.65 x	1.56 x	1.48 x	1.44 x
EV / EBITDA	11.1 x	14.4 x	12.3 x	9.69 x	11.3 x	11.1 x	9.83 x	9.09 x
EV / FCF	51.6 x	32.6 x	18.3 x	17.6 x	29.6 x	24.5 x	22.5 x	22.2 x
FCF Yield	1.94%	3.07%	5.46%	5.68%	3.38%	4.07%	4.44%	4.5%
Price to Book	30.6 x	197 x	13.1 x	7.68 x	-	7.14 x	6.67 x	6.49 x
Nbr of stocks (in thousands)	8,57,823	8,64,398	8,69,142	8,64,918	8,51,926	8,53,137	-	-
Reference price ²	117.1	168.4	214.3	173.8	157.2	147.6	147.6	147.6
Announcement Date	30/01/20	02/02/21	01/02/22	31/01/23	30/01/24	-	-	-

¹USD in Million²USD

Estimates

Income Statement Evolution (Annual data)

Fiscal Period: December	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026
Net sales ¹	74,094	84,628	97,287	1,00,338	90,958	93,045	98,516	1,02,572
EBITDA ¹	10,510	11,416	16,097	16,965	13,239	13,074	14,823	16,224
EBIT ¹	8,150	8,718	13,144	13,853	9,873	9,614	11,299	12,508
Operating Margin	11%	10.3%	13.51%	13.81%	10.85%	10.33%	11.47%	12.19%
Earnings before Tax (EBT) ¹	5,652	1,974	16,595	14,825	8,573	9,226	10,929	12,285
Net income ¹	4,440	1,427	12,890	11,548	6,708	6,925	8,362	9,129
Net margin	5.99%	1.69%	13.25%	11.51%	7.37%	7.44%	8.49%	8.9%
EPS ²	5.110	1.640	14.68	13.20	7.800	8.077	9.875	10.91
Free Cash Flow ¹	2,259	5,047	10,813	9,335	5,080	5,903	6,470	6,634
FCF margin	3.05%	5.96%	11.11%	9.3%	5.58%	6.34%	6.57%	6.47%
FCF Conversion (EBITDA)	21.49%	44.21%	67.17%	55.03%	38.37%	45.15%	43.64%	40.89%
FCF Conversion (Net income)	50.88%	353.68%	83.89%	80.84%	75.73%	85.24%	77.37%	72.67%
Dividend per Share ²	3.840	4.040	4.580	6.180	-	6.550	6.713	6.963
Announcement Date	30/01/20	02/02/21	01/02/22	31/01/23	30/01/24	-	-	-

¹USD in Million²USD

Estimates

Income Statement Evolution (Quarterly data)

Fiscal Period: December	2021 Q3	2021 Q4	2022 Q1	2022 Q2	2022 Q3	2022 Q4	2023 Q1	2023 Q2	2023 Q3	2023 Q4	2024 Q1	2024 Q2	2024 Q3	2024 Q4	2025 Q1
Net sales ¹	23,184	27,771	24,378	24,766	24,161	27,033	22,925	22,055	21,061	24,917	21,700	22,314	22,686	26,392	23,463
EBITDA ¹	3,708	4,706	4,070	4,338	3,923	4,634	3,386	3,747	2,452	3,654	2,645	3,240	3,257	4,001	3,216
EBIT ¹	2,970	3,952	3,306	3,576	3,149	3,822	2,552	2,919	1,615	2,787	1,747	2,346	2,426	3,136	2,306
Operating Margin	12.81%	14.23%	13.56%	14.44%	13.03%	14.14%	11.13%	13.24%	7.67%	11.19%	8.05%	10.52%	10.69%	11.88%	9.83%
Earnings before Tax (EBT) ¹	2,993	3,962	3,392	3,697	3,269	4,467	2,522	2,720	1,268	2,063	1,536	2,244	2,341	3,023	2,147
Net income ¹	2,329	3,093	2,662	2,849	2,584	3,453	1,895	2,081	1,127	1,605	1,113	1,716	1,787	2,325	1,647
Net margin	10.05%	11.14%	10.92%	11.5%	10.69%	12.77%	8.27%	9.44%	5.35%	6.44%	5.13%	7.69%	7.88%	8.81%	7.02%
EPS ²	2.650	3.520	3.030	3.250	2.960	3.960	2.190	2.420	1.310	1.870	1.300	2.010	2.086	2.733	1.925
Dividend per Share ²	1.020	1.520	1.520	1.520	1.520	1.620	1.620	1.620	-	-	1.630	1.630	1.630	1.630	1.675
Announcement Date	26/10/21	01/02/22	26/04/22	26/07/22	25/10/22	31/01/23	25/04/23	08/08/23	26/10/23	30/01/24	23/04/24	-	-	-	-

¹USD in Million²USD

Estimates

Balance Sheet Analysis

Fiscal Period: December	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026
Net Debt ¹	16,077	18,744	11,660	14,060	16,192	18,965	19,749	21,636
Net Cash position ¹	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
Leverage (Debt/EBITDA)	1.53 x	1.642 x	0.7244 x	0.8288 x	1.223 x	1.451 x	1.332 x	1.334 x
Free Cash Flow ¹	2,259	5,047	10,813	9,335	5,080	5,903	6,470	6,634
ROE (net income / shareholders' equity)	207%	358%	143%	66.6%	36.2%	37.9%	42.1%	44.4%
ROA (Net income/ Total Assets)	12.1%	11.9%	19.6%	16.4%	9.45%	9.76%	11.5%	13%
Assets ¹	36,600	11,983	65,907	70,243	70,990	70,978	72,859	70,048
Book Value Per Share ²	3.830	0.8600	16.30	22.60	-	20.70	22.10	22.70
Cash Flow per Share ²	9.940	12.00	17.10	16.10	11.90	12.60	14.60	16.50
Capex ¹	6,380	5,412	4,194	4,769	5,158	4,634	5,478	5,998
Capex / Sales	8.61%	6.4%	4.31%	4.75%	5.67%	4.98%	5.56%	5.85%
Announcement Date	30/01/20	02/02/21	01/02/22	31/01/23	30/01/24	-	-	-

¹USD in Million²USD

Estimates

EPS & Dividend

Year-on-year evolution of the PER

Year-on-year evolution of the Yield

Change in Enterprise Value/EBITDA

Ratings for United Parcel Service Inc.

Trading Rating

Investor Rating

ESG Refinitiv

More Ratings

Analysts' Consensus

Sell

Buy

Mean consensus

OUTPERFORM

Number of Analysts

Last Close Price

147.6 USD

Average target price

163.1 USD

Spread / Average Target

+10.52%

Consensus

EPS Revisions

Estimates Revisions

Quarterly earnings - Rate of surprise

Company calendar

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