Financials Petrobras Buenos Aires S.E.

Equities

PBR

ARBCOM4602U4

Integrated Oil & Gas

End-of-day quote Buenos Aires S.E. Other stock markets 03:30:00 19/06/2024 am IST			5-day change	1st Jan Change
18,100 ^ARS	+2.73%		+4.70%	+16.19%

20/06	Shell worried about employee strike at Brazil's environmental agency	RE
20/06	New Petrobras CEO says president wants firm to boost national economy	RE

Valuation

Fiscal Period: December	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026
Capitalization ¹	4,07,219	3,73,468	3,87,853	3,45,928	4,97,645	4,85,862	-	-
Enterprise Value (EV) ¹	7,25,086	7,01,736	6,53,631	5,70,438	7,25,444	7,25,185	7,27,085	6,77,486
P/E ratio	9.8 x	52.5 x	3.48 x	1.7 x	3.89 x	4.21 x	4.59 x	4.21 x
Yield	2.45%	2.78%	30%	61.6%	15%	16.2%	9.86%	11.1%
Capitalization / Revenue	1.35 x	1.28 x	0.86 x	0.54 x	0.98 x	0.98 x	1.02 x	1 x
EV / Revenue	2.4 x	2.41 x	1.44 x	0.89 x	1.42 x	1.46 x	1.53 x	1.39 x
EV / EBITDA	5.61 x	5.13 x	2.79 x	1.68 x	2.78 x	2.69 x	2.9 x	2.64 x
EV / FCF	10.7 x	5.94 x	3.87 x	2.77 x	4.54 x	5.91 x	9.28 x	7.19 x
FCF Yield	9.34%	16.8%	25.9%	36.1%	22%	16.9%	10.8%	13.9%
Price to Book	1.33 x	1.2 x	0.96 x	0.88 x	1.27 x	1.14 x	0.72 x	0.64 x
Nbr of stocks (in thousands)	1,30,44,201	1,30,44,201	1,30,44,201	1,30,44,201	1,30,15,466	1,29,09,288	-	-
Reference price ²	30.18	28.34	28.45	24.50	37.24	36.72	36.72	36.72
Announcement Date	19/02/20	25/02/21	24/02/22	02/03/23	08/03/24	-	-	-

¹BRL in Million²BRL

Estimates

Income Statement Evolution (Annual data)

Fiscal Period: December	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026
Net sales ¹	3,02,245	2,90,704	4,52,668	6,41,256	5,09,987	4,96,563	4,75,313	4,87,553
EBITDA ¹	1,29,249	1,36,690	2,34,576	3,40,482	2,61,016	2,69,543	2,50,370	2,56,164
EBIT ¹	70,747	74,714	1,71,528	2,72,280	1,94,883	1,97,922	1,76,080	1,76,627
Operating Margin	23.41%	25.7%	37.89%	42.46%	38.21%	39.86%	37.05%	36.23%
Earnings before Tax (EBT) ¹	47,242	-1,224	1,51,575	2,74,998	1,76,269	1,66,999	1,54,832	1,62,920
Net income ¹	40,137	6,179	1,06,668	1,88,328	1,23,920	1,17,248	1,07,755	1,12,677
Net margin	13.28%	2.13%	23.56%	29.37%	24.3%	23.61%	22.67%	23.11%
EPS ²	3.080	0.5400	8.180	14.44	9.570	8.732	8.005	8.722
Free Cash Flow ¹	67,756	1,18,132	1,68,992	2,05,754	1,59,925	1,22,667	78,337	94,232
FCF margin	22.42%	40.64%	37.33%	32.09%	31.36%	24.7%	16.48%	19.33%
FCF Conversion (EBITDA)	52.42%	86.42%	72.04%	60.43%	61.27%	45.51%	31.29%	36.79%
FCF Conversion (Net income)	168.81%	1,911.91%	158.43%	109.25%	129.05%	104.62%	72.7%	83.63%
Dividend per Share ²	0.7387	0.7874	8.534	15.09	5.569	5.952	3.622	4.076
Announcement Date	19/02/20	25/02/21	24/02/22	02/03/23	08/03/24	-	-	-

¹BRL in Million²BRL

Estimates

Income Statement Evolution (Quarterly data)

Fiscal Period: December	2021 Q4	2022 Q1	2022 Q2	2022 Q3	2022 Q4	2023 Q1	2023 Q2	2023 Q3	2023 Q4	2024 Q1	2024 Q2	2024 S1	2024 Q3	2024 Q4
Net sales ¹	1,34,190	1,36,994	1,80,914	1,70,076	1,58,579	1,32,974	1,11,441	1,24,828	1,34,990	1,17,721	1,28,224	-	1,24,999	1,21,655
EBITDA ¹	62,945	77,710	98,260	91,421	73,091	72,497	56,690	66,188	67,079	60,044	71,984	-	71,384	67,712
EBIT ¹	46,717	61,106	81,264	74,278	55,632	57,311	40,608	49,233	48,992	43,396	55,056	-	53,105	49,693
Operating Margin	34.81%	44.6%	44.92%	43.67%	35.08%	43.1%	36.44%	39.44%	36.29%	36.86%	42.94%	-	42.48%	40.85%
Earnings before Tax (EBT) ¹	44,485	66,580	85,236	66,639	59,301	54,469	40,907	-	41,074	34,448	45,793	-	46,489	46,169
Net income ¹	31,504	43,357	57,397	46,096	43,341	36,463	28,264	26,625	31,169	23,700	32,254	-	31,969	30,416
Net margin	23.48%	31.65%	31.73%	27.1%	27.33%	27.42%	25.36%	21.33%	23.09%	20.13%	25.15%	-	25.58%	25%
EPS ²	2.420	3.325	4.375	3.379	3.320	2.782	2.182	2.040	2.400	1.830	2.430	-	2.364	2.267
Dividend per Share ²	2.861	-	6.723	-	2.750	-	1.894	-	-	1.042	1.344	1.580	1.306	1.283
Announcement Date	24/02/22	05/05/22	28/07/22	03/11/22	02/03/23	11/05/23	03/08/23	09/11/23	08/03/24	14/05/24	-	-	-	-

¹BRL in Million²BRL

Estimates

Balance Sheet Analysis

Fiscal Period: December	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026
Net Debt ¹	3,17,867	3,28,268	2,65,778	2,24,510	2,27,799	2,39,322	2,41,222	1,91,624
Net Cash position ¹	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
Leverage (Debt/EBITDA)	2.459 x	2.402 x	1.133 x	0.6594 x	0.8727 x	0.8879 x	0.9635 x	0.7481 x
Free Cash Flow ¹	67,756	1,18,132	1,68,992	2,05,754	1,59,925	1,22,667	78,337	94,232
ROE (net income / shareholders' equity)	14%	2.35%	30.7%	50.2%	33.5%	27.4%	21.8%	20.2%
ROA (Net income/ Total Assets)	4.49%	0.74%	10.9%	19.3%	12.3%	11.6%	10%	9.36%
Assets ¹	8,93,323	8,31,639	9,80,224	9,74,830	10,08,216	10,15,086	10,75,182	12,04,133
Book Value Per Share ²	22.70	23.60	29.70	27.80	29.40	32.30	50.70	57.70
Cash Flow per Share ²	7.800	11.40	15.60	19.60	16.60	15.30	13.70	14.00
Capex ¹	34,010	29,974	34,134	49,656	62,297	81,420	1,02,357	96,465
Capex / Sales	11.25%	10.31%	7.54%	7.74%	12.22%	16.4%	21.53%	19.79%
Announcement Date	19/02/20	25/02/21	24/02/22	02/03/23	08/03/24	-	-	-

¹BRL in Million²BRL

Estimates

EPS & Dividend

Year-on-year evolution of the PER

Year-on-year evolution of the Yield

Change in Enterprise Value/EBITDA

Ratings for Petrobras

Trading Rating

Investor Rating

ESG Refinitiv

More Ratings

Analysts' Consensus

Sell

Buy

Mean consensus

OUTPERFORM

Number of Analysts

Last Close Price

36.72 BRL

Average target price

42.58 BRL

Spread / Average Target

+15.97%

Consensus

EPS Revisions

Estimates Revisions

Quarterly earnings - Rate of surprise

Company calendar

Sector Integrated Oil & Gas

	1st Jan change	Capi.
EXXON MOBIL CORPORATION	+10.78%	44TCr
PETROCHINA COMPANY LIMITED	+48.84%	24TCr
SHELL PLC	+7.99%	22TCr
TOTALENERGIES SE	+0.28%	15TCr
EQUINOR ASA	-9.08%	8.07TCr
GAZPROM	-.--%	5.26TCr
ENI S.P.A	-9.20%	4.74TCr
SUNCOR ENERGY INC.	+18.33%	4.69TCr
ROSNEFT OIL	-.--%	3.75TCr

Integrated Oil & Gas