Financials Nippon Paper Industries Co., Ltd.

Equities

3863

JP3721600009

Paper Products

Delayed Japan Exchange Other stock markets 11:30:00 02/05/2024 am IST			5-day change	1st Jan Change
1,093 ^JPY	-0.09%		+0.09%	-13.53%

20/02	Factbox-Asia's sustainable aviation fuel projects and agreements	RE
20/02	Asia's sustainable aviation fuel projects and agreements	RE

Valuation

Fiscal Period: March	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026
Capitalization ¹	2,64,548	1,77,769	1,53,161	1,20,041	1,18,200	1,26,136	-	-
Enterprise Value (EV) ¹	8,86,794	7,96,319	8,92,283	8,61,158	8,76,083	8,85,191	8,76,061	8,63,801
P/E ratio	-7.51 x	12.5 x	47.9 x	60.3 x	-2.34 x	8.47 x	7.29 x	6.37 x
Yield	1.31%	2.6%	3.02%	3.85%	-	0.91%	2.56%	3.16%
Capitalization / Revenue	0.25 x	0.17 x	0.15 x	0.11 x	0.1 x	0.11 x	0.11 x	0.11 x
EV / Revenue	0.83 x	0.76 x	0.89 x	0.82 x	0.76 x	0.75 x	0.75 x	0.74 x
EV / EBITDA	11.1 x	8.49 x	10.5 x	10.8 x	21.6 x	11 x	9.03 x	8.59 x
EV / FCF	72.1 x	-259 x	-9.04 x	77.4 x	-399 x	136 x	52.8 x	46.8 x
FCF Yield	1.39%	-0.39%	-11.1%	1.29%	-0.25%	0.73%	1.89%	2.14%
Price to Book	0.69 x	0.47 x	0.37 x	0.28 x	0.3 x	0.31 x	0.3 x	0.29 x
Nbr of stocks (in thousands)	1,15,725	1,15,510	1,15,506	1,15,535	1,15,542	1,15,404	-	-
Reference price ²	2,286	1,539	1,326	1,039	1,023	1,093	1,093	1,093
Announcement Date	15/05/19	15/05/20	14/05/21	13/05/22	15/05/23	-	-	-

¹JPY in Million²JPY

Estimates

Income Statement Evolution (Annual data)

Fiscal Period: March	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026
Net sales ¹	10,68,703	10,43,912	10,07,339	10,45,086	11,52,645	11,75,669	11,74,133	11,74,360
EBITDA ¹	80,037	93,753	84,928	79,655	40,473	80,641	96,980	1,00,575
EBIT ¹	19,615	35,048	19,233	12,090	-26,855	18,934	33,200	36,420
Operating Margin	1.84%	3.36%	1.91%	1.16%	-2.33%	1.61%	2.83%	3.1%
Earnings before Tax (EBT) ¹	-27,644	21,648	10,657	7,797	-41,365	28,350	26,625	29,300
Net income ¹	-35,220	14,212	3,196	1,990	-50,406	15,020	16,137	17,860
Net margin	-3.3%	1.36%	0.32%	0.19%	-4.37%	1.28%	1.37%	1.52%
EPS ²	-304.3	122.9	27.67	17.23	-436.3	129.0	149.8	171.6
Free Cash Flow ¹	12,299	-3,077	-98,748	11,131	-2,195	6,492	16,576	18,473
FCF margin	1.15%	-0.29%	-9.8%	1.07%	-0.19%	0.55%	1.41%	1.57%
FCF Conversion (EBITDA)	15.37%	-	-	13.97%	-	8.05%	17.09%	18.37%
FCF Conversion (Net income)	-	-	-	559.35%	-	43.22%	102.72%	103.43%
Dividend per Share ²	30.00	40.00	40.00	40.00	-	10.00	28.00	34.50
Announcement Date	15/05/19	15/05/20	14/05/21	13/05/22	15/05/23	-	-	-

¹JPY in Million²JPY

Estimates

Income Statement Evolution (Quarterly data)

Fiscal Period: March	2020 S1	2020 S2	2021 S1	2022 Q2	2022 S1	2022 Q3	2022 Q4	2022 S2	2023 Q1	2023 Q2	2023 S1	2023 Q3	2023 Q4	2024 Q1	2024 Q2	2024 S1	2024 Q3	2024 Q4	2025 Q1	2025 Q2	2025 Q3	2025 Q4
Net sales ¹	5,24,876	5,19,036	4,67,403	2,57,942	5,08,402	2,65,574	2,71,110	5,36,684	2,64,773	2,86,145	5,50,918	2,98,482	3,03,245	2,87,424	2,96,518	5,83,942	2,90,574	3,01,628	2,87,424	2,96,518	2,97,000	2,96,400
EBITDA	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
EBIT ¹	15,195	19,853	3,971	3,285	8,113	2,310	1,667	3,977	-2,924	-9,057	-11,981	-10,785	-4,089	812	4,040	4,852	4,455	9,772	6,900	8,900	10,500	10,300
Operating Margin	2.89%	3.82%	0.85%	1.27%	1.6%	0.87%	0.61%	0.74%	-1.1%	-3.17%	-2.17%	-3.61%	-1.35%	0.28%	1.36%	0.83%	1.53%	3.24%	2.4%	3%	3.54%	3.48%
Earnings before Tax (EBT)	13,013	-	-4,396	4,470	7,536	809	-	-	-1,293	-	-13,774	-2,507	-	-3,430	-	-2,537	3,349	-	-	-	-	-
Net income ¹	9,645	4,567	-8,048	325	2,196	191	-397	-206	-8,197	-	-22,076	-3,624	-	-5,267	-4,103	-9,370	1,073	21,897	-	-	-	-
Net margin	1.84%	0.88%	-1.72%	0.13%	0.43%	0.07%	-0.15%	-0.04%	-3.1%	-	-4.01%	-1.21%	-	-1.83%	-1.38%	-1.6%	0.37%	7.26%	-	-	-	-
EPS	83.35	39.54	-69.68	2.810	19.01	1.660	-3.440	-1.780	-70.95	-	-191.1	-31.36	-	-45.63	-	-81.18	9.290	-	-	-	-	-
Dividend per Share	10.00	-	10.00	-	10.00	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
Announcement Date	06/11/19	15/05/20	05/11/20	05/11/21	05/11/21	07/02/22	13/05/22	13/05/22	05/08/22	09/11/22	09/11/22	14/02/23	15/05/23	07/08/23	10/11/23	10/11/23	09/02/24	-	-	-	-	-

¹JPY in Million

Estimates

Balance Sheet Analysis

Fiscal Period: March	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026
Net Debt ¹	6,22,246	6,18,550	7,39,122	7,41,117	7,57,883	7,59,055	7,49,925	7,37,665
Net Cash position ¹	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
Leverage (Debt/EBITDA)	7.774 x	6.598 x	8.703 x	9.304 x	18.73 x	9.413 x	7.733 x	7.334 x
Free Cash Flow ¹	12,299	-3,077	-98,748	11,131	-2,195	6,492	16,576	18,473
ROE (net income / shareholders' equity)	-8.6%	3.7%	0.8%	0.5%	-12.3%	3.62%	3.92%	4.19%
ROA (Net income/ Total Assets)	1.69%	2.22%	0.84%	0.12%	-1.48%	0.88%	0.9%	1%
Assets ¹	-20,80,577	6,41,197	3,78,906	15,93,275	33,96,516	17,12,695	17,86,401	17,90,781
Book Value Per Share ²	3,328	3,249	3,570	3,695	3,416	3,556	3,669	3,791
Cash Flow per Share	218.0	630.0	576.0	593.0	137.0	-	-	-
Capex ¹	60,338	70,636	58,265	58,107	85,972	64,000	63,320	62,500
Capex / Sales	5.65%	6.77%	5.78%	5.56%	7.46%	5.44%	5.39%	5.32%
Announcement Date	15/05/19	15/05/20	14/05/21	13/05/22	15/05/23	-	-	-

¹JPY in Million²JPY

Estimates

EPS & Dividend

Year-on-year evolution of the PER

Year-on-year evolution of the Yield

Change in Enterprise Value/EBITDA

Ratings for Nippon Paper Industries Co., Ltd.

Trading Rating

Investor Rating

ESG Refinitiv

A-

More Ratings

Analysts' Consensus

Sell

Buy

Mean consensus

HOLD

Number of Analysts

Last Close Price

1,093 JPY

Average target price

1,223 JPY

Spread / Average Target

+11.92%

Consensus

EPS Revisions

Estimates Revisions

Quarterly earnings - Rate of surprise

Company calendar

Sector Paper Mills & Products

	1st Jan change	Capi.
NIPPON PAPER INDUSTRIES CO., LTD.	-13.53%	825M
SHANDONG SUNPAPER CO., LTD.	+27.77%	6B
SYLVAMO CORPORATION	+32.32%	2.69B
YFY INC.	-3.83%	1.61B
PT PABRIK KERTAS TJIWI KIMIA TBK	+7.53%	1.52B
YUEYANG FOREST & PAPER CO., LTD.	-17.32%	1.19B
HANGZHOU HUAWANG NEW MATERIAL TECHNOLOGY CO.,LTD.	+18.49%	1.03B
SHANDONG BOHUI PAPER INDUSTRY CO.,LTD.	-11.76%	937M
MCC MEILI CLOUD COMPUTING INDUSTRY INVESTMENT CO., LTD	-17.90%	872M
JK PAPER LIMITED	-6.90%	783M

Paper Mills & Products