Morgan Stanley calculates an estimated -$2.5bn in lower provision charges for the big banks between now and the end of FY26.

The analyst estimates the impact will be greatest on National Australia Bank's ((NAB)) earnings and smallest on ANZ Bank, with CommonBank ((CBA)) the second most impacted, and Westpac ((WBC)) the third.

$27.8 target price. Equal-weight rating. Industry view: In-Line.

Sector: Banks.

Target price is $27.80.Current Price is $28.82. Difference: ($1.02) - (brackets indicate current price is over target). If ANZ meets the Morgan Stanley target it will return approximately -4% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

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