Financials China Railway Group Limited Hong Kong S.E.

Equities

390 CNE1000007Z2

Construction & Engineering

Market Closed - Hong Kong S.E. Other stock markets 01:38:42 28/06/2024 pm IST			5-day change	1st Jan Change
4.31 ^HKD	+1.41%		+0.47%	+23.85%

28/05	China Railway Construction to Redeem $1 Billion of 3.97% Perpetual Securities on June 27	MT
17/05	China Railway Construction Completes Saudi Arabian Tunnel Construction	MT

Valuation

Fiscal Period: December	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026
Capitalization ¹	1,39,050	1,19,432	1,32,027	1,29,563	1,29,985	1,50,819	-	-
Enterprise Value (EV) ¹	2,04,993	1,84,721	2,47,724	2,80,201	3,15,647	4,33,543	4,42,065	4,73,207
P/E ratio	6.25 x	5.47 x	5.58 x	4.64 x	4.4 x	4.37 x	4.06 x	3.85 x
Yield	2.85%	3.42%	3.39%	3.6%	3.7%	3.68%	4.02%	4.38%
Capitalization / Revenue	0.16 x	0.12 x	0.12 x	0.11 x	0.1 x	0.11 x	0.11 x	0.1 x
EV / Revenue	0.24 x	0.19 x	0.23 x	0.24 x	0.25 x	0.32 x	0.31 x	0.32 x
EV / EBITDA	4.91 x	4.3 x	5.1 x	5.25 x	5.45 x	6.2 x	5.84 x	5.89 x
EV / FCF	-11.4 x	-17.4 x	-6.1 x	-17.3 x	-8.7 x	-43.9 x	-30.8 x	-66.9 x
FCF Yield	-8.77%	-5.75%	-16.4%	-5.78%	-11.5%	-2.28%	-3.25%	-1.49%
Price to Book	0.77 x	0.62 x	0.52 x	0.54 x	-	0.44 x	0.41 x	0.38 x
Nbr of stocks (in thousands)	2,45,70,929	2,45,70,929	2,45,70,929	2,47,52,196	2,47,52,196	2,47,50,630	-	-
Reference price ²	5.940	5.270	5.790	5.560	5.680	6.520	6.520	6.520
Announcement Date	30/03/20	30/03/21	30/03/22	30/03/23	28/03/24	-	-	-

¹CNY in Million²CNY

Estimates

Income Statement Evolution (Annual data)

Fiscal Period: December	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026
Net sales ¹	8,48,440	9,71,405	10,70,417	11,51,501	12,60,841	13,45,330	14,15,719	14,95,297
EBITDA ¹	41,709	42,926	48,559	53,324	57,962	69,897	75,754	80,375
EBIT ¹	31,882	33,578	38,782	43,049	46,282	53,594	55,962	59,166
Operating Margin	3.76%	3.46%	3.62%	3.74%	3.67%	3.98%	3.95%	3.96%
Earnings before Tax (EBT) ¹	31,332	33,383	37,586	42,583	46,070	50,628	54,890	60,765
Net income ¹	23,678	25,188	27,618	31,276	33,483	36,955	39,920	42,029
Net margin	2.79%	2.59%	2.58%	2.72%	2.66%	2.75%	2.82%	2.81%
EPS ²	0.9500	0.9630	1.037	1.198	1.292	1.493	1.605	1.693
Free Cash Flow ¹	-17,981	-10,627	-40,643	-16,192	-36,276	-9,876	-14,371	-7,072
FCF margin	-2.12%	-1.09%	-3.8%	-1.41%	-2.88%	-0.73%	-1.02%	-0.47%
FCF Conversion (EBITDA)	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
FCF Conversion (Net income)	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
Dividend per Share ²	0.1690	0.1800	0.1960	0.2000	0.2100	0.2400	0.2622	0.2858
Announcement Date	30/03/20	30/03/21	30/03/22	30/03/23	28/03/24	-	-	-

¹CNY in Million²CNY

Estimates

Income Statement Evolution (Quarterly data)

Fiscal Period: December	2019 S2	2020 S1	2020 S2	2021 S1	2021 Q4	2021 S2	2022 Q1	2022 Q2	2022 S1	2022 Q3	2022 Q4	2023 Q1	2023 Q2	2023 Q3	2023 Q4	2024 Q1	2024 Q2	2024 Q3	2024 Q4
Net sales	4,88,956	4,16,303	5,58,429	4,98,227	3,02,492	5,75,045	2,66,537	2,92,867	5,59,405	2,88,780	3,03,316	2,71,974	3,17,499	-	-	-	-	-	-
EBITDA	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
EBIT	-	-	19,751	18,205	11,318	19,640	10,203	10,789	20,992	9,521	12,535	10,751	11,546	-	-	-	-	-	-
Operating Margin	-	-	3.54%	3.65%	3.74%	3.42%	3.83%	3.68%	3.75%	3.3%	4.13%	3.95%	3.64%	-	-	-	-	-	-
Earnings before Tax (EBT)	-	-	19,514	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
Net income	-	-	13,491	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
Net margin	-	-	2.42%	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
EPS ¹	-	-	-	-	0.3100	-	0.2940	0.2600	-	0.3200	0.3300	0.3050	0.3000	0.3080	0.3800	0.2890	0.3600	0.3700	0.3700
Dividend per Share	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
Announcement Date	30/03/20	28/08/20	30/03/21	30/08/21	30/03/22	30/03/22	30/04/22	30/08/22	30/08/22	28/10/22	30/03/23	28/04/23	30/08/23	30/10/23	28/03/24	29/04/24	-	-	-

¹CNY

Estimates

Balance Sheet Analysis

Fiscal Period: December	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026
Net Debt ¹	65,943	65,289	1,15,697	1,50,639	1,85,662	2,82,724	2,91,247	3,22,389
Net Cash position ¹	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
Leverage (Debt/EBITDA)	1.581 x	1.521 x	2.383 x	2.825 x	3.203 x	4.045 x	3.845 x	4.011 x
Free Cash Flow ¹	-17,981	-10,627	-40,643	-16,192	-36,276	-9,876	-14,371	-7,072
ROE (net income / shareholders' equity)	11.5%	11.9%	10.4%	12.1%	11.8%	10.6%	10.2%	10%
ROA (Net income/ Total Assets)	2.37%	2.23%	2.2%	2.1%	1.95%	2.05%	2.09%	2.09%
Assets ¹	9,99,264	11,27,980	12,55,346	14,87,412	17,21,391	18,02,692	19,06,991	20,10,945
Book Value Per Share ²	7.730	8.490	11.20	10.30	-	14.80	16.00	17.30
Cash Flow per Share ²	0.9000	1.260	0.5300	1.760	1.550	1.820	2.910	2.920
Capex ¹	18,258	41,622	53,713	59,744	56,892	63,825	65,314	67,015
Capex / Sales	2.15%	4.28%	5.02%	5.19%	4.51%	4.74%	4.61%	4.48%
Announcement Date	30/03/20	30/03/21	30/03/22	30/03/23	28/03/24	-	-	-

¹CNY in Million²CNY

Estimates

EPS & Dividend

Year-on-year evolution of the PER

Year-on-year evolution of the Yield

Change in Enterprise Value/EBITDA

Ratings for China Railway Group Limited

Trading Rating

Investor Rating

ESG Refinitiv

More Ratings

Analysts' Consensus

Sell

Buy

Mean consensus

BUY

Number of Analysts

Last Close Price

6.52 CNY

Average target price

9.176 CNY

Spread / Average Target

+40.73%

Consensus

EPS Revisions

Estimates Revisions

Quarterly earnings - Rate of surprise

Company calendar

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