Financials Carlsberg LIQUIDNET SYSTEMS

Equities

CARLB

DK0010181759

Brewers

Real-time Estimate Cboe Europe Other stock markets 08:30:00 06/05/2024 pm IST			5-day change	1st Jan Change
922.6 ^DKK	+26.02%		0.00%	0.00%

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Valuation

Fiscal Period: December	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026
Capitalization ¹	1,45,805	1,42,676	1,63,149	1,33,594	1,22,775	1,32,227	-	-
Enterprise Value (EV) ¹	1,64,584	1,63,939	1,82,311	1,52,920	1,45,126	1,57,641	1,57,977	1,58,566
P/E ratio	22.7 x	23.7 x	23.8 x	-121 x	-2.83 x	17.2 x	15.5 x	13.9 x
Yield	2.11%	2.26%	2.12%	2.92%	3.19%	2.96%	3.24%	3.54%
Capitalization / Revenue	2.21 x	2.44 x	2.45 x	1.9 x	1.67 x	1.72 x	1.65 x	1.57 x
EV / Revenue	2.5 x	2.8 x	2.74 x	2.18 x	1.97 x	2.05 x	1.97 x	1.89 x
EV / EBITDA	11 x	11.6 x	11.8 x	9.77 x	9.56 x	9.93 x	9.33 x	8.76 x
EV / FCF	17.5 x	32.4 x	20.5 x	15.5 x	29.8 x	20.2 x	18.2 x	17.5 x
FCF Yield	5.72%	3.08%	4.87%	6.46%	3.36%	4.96%	5.49%	5.72%
Price to Book	3.39 x	3.6 x	3.65 x	3.97 x	4.89 x	5.19 x	5.04 x	5 x
Nbr of stocks (in thousands)	1,47,996	1,45,102	1,41,892	1,37,341	1,34,114	1,32,790	-	-
Reference price ²	993.8	975.2	1,130	923.2	846.8	928.0	928.0	928.0
Announcement Date	04/02/20	05/02/21	04/02/22	07/02/23	07/02/24	-	-	-

¹DKK in Million²DKK

Estimates

Income Statement Evolution (Annual data)

Fiscal Period: December	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026
Net sales ¹	65,902	58,541	66,634	70,265	73,585	76,777	80,308	84,053
EBITDA ¹	15,007	14,085	15,474	15,657	15,179	15,883	16,924	18,095
EBIT ¹	10,465	9,699	10,862	11,470	11,105	11,561	12,468	13,464
Operating Margin	15.88%	16.57%	16.3%	16.32%	15.09%	15.06%	15.53%	16.02%
Earnings before Tax (EBT) ¹	10,228	9,041	10,228	9,961	9,830	10,565	11,445	12,408
Net income ¹	6,569	6,030	6,846	-1,063	-40,788	7,206	7,798	8,444
Net margin	9.97%	10.3%	10.27%	-1.51%	-55.43%	9.39%	9.71%	10.05%
EPS ²	43.70	41.10	47.40	-7.600	-299.7	53.91	59.88	66.64
Free Cash Flow ¹	9,415	5,057	8,876	9,884	4,878	7,813	8,679	9,076
FCF margin	14.29%	8.64%	13.32%	14.07%	6.63%	10.18%	10.81%	10.8%
FCF Conversion (EBITDA)	62.74%	35.9%	57.36%	63.13%	32.14%	49.19%	51.28%	50.16%
FCF Conversion (Net income)	143.32%	83.86%	129.65%	-	-	108.41%	111.3%	107.49%
Dividend per Share ²	21.00	22.00	24.00	27.00	27.00	27.46	30.09	32.81
Announcement Date	04/02/20	05/02/21	04/02/22	07/02/23	07/02/24	-	-	-

¹DKK in Million²DKK

Estimates

Income Statement Evolution (Quarterly data)

Fiscal Period: December	2019 S2	2020 S1	2020 S2	2021 S1	2021 Q3	2021 Q4	2021 S2	2022 Q1	2022 Q2	2022 S1	2022 Q3	2022 Q4	2022 S2	2023 Q1	2023 Q2	2023 S1	2023 S2	2024 Q1	2024 Q2	2024 S1	2024 Q3	2024 Q4	2024 S2	2025 Q1	2025 S1	2025 S2
Net sales	32,912	28,830	29,711	31,687	19,739	15,208	34,947	-	20,511	35,447	-	-	34,818	16,405	21,383	37,788	35,797	-	22,280	39,144	21,515	16,056	37,269	17,890	41,267	38,896
EBITDA	-	6,797	7,288	7,245	-	-	8,229	-	-	7,705	-	-	7,087	-	-	8,060	7,119	-	-	8,426	-	-	7,428	-	-	-
EBIT	5,294	4,615	5,084	5,111	-	-	5,751	-	-	6,442	-	-	5,028	-	-	6,272	4,833	-	-	6,322	-	-	5,426	-	6,586	6,194
Operating Margin	16.09%	16.01%	17.11%	16.13%	-	-	16.46%	-	-	18.17%	-	-	14.44%	-	-	16.6%	13.5%	-	-	16.15%	-	-	14.56%	-	15.96%	15.92%
Earnings before Tax (EBT)	5,375	4,404	4,637	4,674	-	-	5,554	-	-	5,069	-	-	-	-	-	5,771	-	-	-	5,713	-	-	5,262	-	6,307	5,676
Net income ¹	3,490	2,855	3,175	3,027	1,910	1,910	3,819	-2,638	-2,638	-5,276	2,106	-	-	-	-	3,495	-44,283	1,060	2,473	3,864	2,473	1,060	3,402	-	4,289	3,860
Net margin	10.6%	9.9%	10.69%	9.55%	9.67%	12.56%	10.93%	-	-12.86%	-14.88%	-	-	-	-	-	9.25%	-123.71%	-	11.1%	9.87%	11.49%	6.6%	9.13%	-	10.39%	9.92%
EPS ²	23.40	19.30	21.80	20.90	13.26	13.26	26.50	-	-	-37.40	15.11	-	-	-	-	25.50	-	7.939	18.69	27.75	18.60	8.079	24.60	-	31.50	28.30
Dividend per Share ²	-	-	-	-	-	24.00	24.00	-	-	-	-	27.00	-	-	-	-	-	6.809	6.809	28.13	6.809	6.809	-	7.418	31.47	-
Announcement Date	04/02/20	13/08/20	05/02/21	18/08/21	28/10/21	04/02/22	04/02/22	17/08/22	17/08/22	17/08/22	07/02/23	07/02/23	07/02/23	16/05/23	16/08/23	16/08/23	07/02/24	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-

¹DKK in Million²DKK

Estimates

Balance Sheet Analysis

Fiscal Period: December	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026
Net Debt ¹	18,779	21,263	19,162	19,326	22,351	25,414	25,750	26,339
Net Cash position ¹	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
Leverage (Debt/EBITDA)	1.251 x	1.51 x	1.238 x	1.234 x	1.472 x	1.6 x	1.522 x	1.456 x
Free Cash Flow ¹	9,415	5,057	8,876	9,884	4,878	7,813	8,679	9,077
ROE (net income / shareholders' equity)	13.9%	15.4%	16.7%	25%	26.9%	30%	32.2%	34.8%
ROA (Net income/ Total Assets)	5.46%	4.99%	5.66%	-0.88%	6.54%	6.48%	6.81%	7.18%
Assets ¹	1,20,411	1,20,939	1,20,886	1,20,864	-6,23,965	1,11,270	1,14,545	1,17,660
Book Value Per Share ²	294.0	271.0	310.0	232.0	173.0	179.0	184.0	186.0
Cash Flow per Share ²	81.40	74.80	91.90	92.40	85.10	82.60	87.80	104.0
Capex ¹	4,588	4,396	4,221	4,018	4,243	5,076	5,299	5,455
Capex / Sales	6.96%	7.51%	6.33%	5.72%	5.77%	6.61%	6.6%	6.49%
Announcement Date	04/02/20	05/02/21	04/02/22	07/02/23	07/02/24	-	-	-

¹DKK in Million²DKK

Estimates

EPS & Dividend

Year-on-year evolution of the PER

Year-on-year evolution of the Yield

Change in Enterprise Value/EBITDA

Ratings for Carlsberg

Trading Rating

Investor Rating

ESG Refinitiv

More Ratings

Analysts' Consensus

Sell

Buy

Mean consensus

BUY

Number of Analysts

Last Close Price

928 DKK

Average target price

1,065 DKK

Spread / Average Target

+14.81%

Consensus

EPS Revisions

Estimates Revisions

Quarterly earnings - Rate of surprise

Company calendar

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