Focusing on Adjusted Funds Flow Growth - in Any Environment
Investor Presentation | TSX: AAV | January 2020 |
ADVANTAGE AT A GLANCE
TSX 52-week trading range | $1.35 to $2.94 | ||||||
Shares Outstanding (basic) | 187 million | ||||||
Market Capitalization | $0.5 billion | ||||||
Enterprise Value | $0.8 billion | ||||||
2020 Guidance (1) | Advantage Montney | ||||||
Assets | |||||||
Capital | $170 to $200 million | ||||||
Total Production | 45,000 to 47,500 boe/d | ||||||
Liquids Production Avg 130% | 6,000 to 6,700 bbls/d | Glacier | Progress | ||||
Liquids Production Exit 200% | 9,000 bbls/d | ||||||
Valhalla |
Advantage holds 133,000 net acres (210 net sections) in the condensate/light oil-rich Montney Glacier/Pipestone fairway
Pipestone/
Wembley
6 Miles
Notes:
(1) Forward-looking information. Refer to Advantage news release dated2 January 8, 2020 and Advisory for material assumptions and risk factors.
2020 - ADVANCING LIGHT OIL WITH A SOLID NATURAL GAS FOUNDATION
High Quality | Prolific Gas | Low-Cost Owned | Disciplined Financial |
Light Oil | Foundation | Infrastructure | Management |
Deep inventory of high | Foundation of free cash | Controlled, efficient, | Self funded growth |
return resource | generation | innovative |
2020 Capital Program of $170 to $200 million
Rapid growth in | Sustain and reinvest | Establish key oil | Target D/AFF ratio of |
liquids revenue | in highest IRR | batteries at Progress | 2x |
projects | and Wembley | ||
3 |
SHAREHOLDER-FOCUSED STRATEGY FOR THE NEW ENERGY MARKET
Continuously
Evolving,
Adapting and
Competing
Relentless Focus
on Asset Quality
and Cost
Structure
Deliver
Sustainable
Adjusted
Funds Flow
Growth
Foundation of
Financial
Stability
Deep
Understanding
of Fundamentals
and Risk
Management
Tactical Elements
Clean, sustainable energy
High quality light oil
Prolific gas foundation
Low cost owned infrastructure
Resilient in all cycles
Disciplined financial management
Focusing on Adjusted Funds Flow Growth - in Any Environment
CANADA - LEADING JURISDICTION FOR RESPONSIBLE ENERGY INVESTMENT
"A Proud Clean Energy Producer - The World Needs More of Our Energy"
Aggregate Independent ESG Scores
Sources: ESG Scores are aggregation of Yale Environmental Performance Index, Social Progress Imperative and World Bank Governance Index; reserves from BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2019 based on government and published data; Canada Action. *Iraq scores unavailable
Clean, sustainable energy
High quality light oil
Prolific gas foundation
Low cost owned infrastructure
Resilient in all cycles
Disciplined financial management | 5 |
ENVIRONMENTAL LEADERSHIP AND SUSTAINABILITY
Glacier CO2 Sequestration Project
(tonnes CO2e accredited)
90,367
90,000 tonnes CO2e equates to
approx. 20,000 vehicles (1)
Wells (AIF 2018)
Non-Producing Wells vs LMR(2)
5,000
4,000 | Ultra-low liability |
57,410 56,999
47,393
40,853
Non-Producing Net
3,000
2,000
1,000
Advantage
0
0 | 10 | 20 | 30 | 40 | |||||
2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | LMR(2) (Jan 2019) |
Clean, sustainable energy
Advantage is an Environmental, Social and Governance (ESG) leader
- Natural gas is the best way to reduce global CO2 emissions by displacing coal
- Advantage offsets 69% of emissions using carbon capture and storage at Glacier(3)
- Created 650 full-time jobs/year over the last 5 years
- Contributed >$1 million to community programs/charities since inception
- See Sustainability Report onAAV website
High quality light oil
Prolific gas foundation
Low cost owned infrastructure
Resilient in all cycles
Disciplined financial management
(1) | Based on estimates per Environmental Protection Agency emissions per vehicle | |
(2) | LMR - Liability Management Ratio as determined by Alberta Energy Regulator | 6 |
(3) | 2018 annual totals | |
2020: 200% LIQUIDS PRODUCTION GROWTH(1), BALANCED PROFILE
6 miles
Progress
Glacier
Valhalla
BC AB
Pipestone/
Wembley
Clean, sustainable energy
•State of the art emissions engineering
High quality light oil
•Exit liquids rate 9,000 bbls/d
Prolific gas foundation
•Free cash funds liquids program
Low cost owned infrastructure
•Two new oil batteries, existing gas plant
Resilient in all cycles
•Balanced commodities, market exposure
Disciplined financial management
•Pace of development driven by balance sheet
(1) Forward-looking information. Refer to Advantage news release dated January 8, 2020 and Advisory for material | 7 |
assumptions and risk factors. | |
ADVANTAGE MONTNEY - MULTIZONE OIL, LIQUIDS AND GAS THROUGHOUT
Valhalla liquids | |
appraisal targets | |
Glacier liquids | |
zones | New oil pool discovery |
Advantage Operated HZ
Offset Operator HZ
Wembley
primary target
Clean, sustainable energy
High quality light oil
Prolific gas foundation
Low cost owned infrastructure
Resilient in all cycles
Disciplined financial management | 8 |
DEVELOPMENT POST LIGHT OIL DISCOVERY AT PROGRESS
Kelt Oil Wells | Tourmaline Oil Wells |
Up to 153,000 bbls CTD | |
Up to 152,000 bbls CTD | |
13-31 Montney D1 (2017)
8-17 New Drill - | |
16-36 Montney D3 (1) | Q1 Completion |
1,038 bbls/d oil | 1-11 New Drill - |
290 bbls/d NGL | Q1 Completion |
4.9 mmcf/d gas |
2-34 Montney D3
(2018)
Tie in to AAV | 5-22 Montney D3 |
Glacier Plant | |
(2018) | |
- 2020 spending ~$75 million
- Recent advancement in frac design at 16-36 resulted in >2,000 boe/d rate(1)
- Initial production Q1 2020; 5,000 bbl/d battery to be completed Q4 2020
- Progress competitive with Wembley/ Pipestone, and higher netbacks
Clean, sustainable energy
High quality light oil
Prolific gas foundation
Low cost owned infrastructure
Resilient in all cycles
Disciplined financial management
(1) Average rate at 5,168 kPa over 72 hours at end of frac flowback and production test. Entrained NGLs calculated using composition | |
from 02/2-34 well and shallow-cut recoveries. Production rates were continuing to increase prior to the well being shut in due to | 9 |
flare limitations. Preliminary results are not necessarily indicative of long-term performance or of ultimate recovery. |
PIPESTONE/WEMBLEY/VALHALLA OIL AND LIQUIDS DEVELOPMENT
Recently completed D3 Well
30% liquids (IP30)
Valhalla
New 5 well pad | |
7,117 boe/d | |
(22% liquids)(1) | Competitor well |
Confidential competitor well | IP30 1,422 boe/d |
(67% liquids) (4) | |
(~41% oil, NGL not available) | |
Confidential competitor well | 3 well pad |
(~44% oil, NGL not available) | |
completing | |
Pipestone/Wembley | 4 well pad |
testing |
- 2020 spending ~$60 million
- Wembley: predictable, top tier results across the fairway (150- 300 bbls/mmcf)
- Valhalla: similar results, early development
Half-cycle Economics(2)(3)
(AECO Cdn $2.00/mcf & $US 60/bbl WTI)
Rate of Return % | Payout Years | Breakeven(3) |
>90% | 1.3 - 1.4 | <$1.00/mcf |
Clean, sustainable energy
High quality light oil
Prolific gas foundation
Low cost owned infrastructure
Resilient in all cycles
Disciplined financial management
- Aggregate initial production rate from 5 wells
- Rate of Return is the percentage return earned on the capital invested in a well during the well's producing life assuming initial capital of $6.0 million per
well DCE+T (drilling, completion, equipping and tie-in) with natural gas and NGL prices and costs escalated at 1.5% annually. | 10 | |
(3) | Breakeven based on NPV10 pre-tax equal to zero and calculated AECO Cdn price. | |
(4) | Kelt Exploration public disclosure |
LIQUIDS-RICH MIDDLE MONTNEY AT GLACIER STEPPING UP
Montney D4 (L2)
Montney D3 (L3)
Montney D2 (L4)
- 2020 spending ~$35 million
- Early development was in Upper and Lower Montney; ultra-low cost lean gas with resilient netbacks
- Recent focus on Middle Montney (25-80 bbls/mmcf)
- IP30 liquids rates up to 400 bbls/d
Half-cycle Economics(1)
(AECO Cdn $2.00/mcf & $US 60/bbl WTI)
Rate of Return % | Payout Years | Breakeven(2)(AECO Cdn $) | |||
40% - 90% | 1.4 - 2.2 | <$1.00/mcf | |||
Q1 2019 10 Well Middle | |||||
Clean, sustainable energy | |||||
Montney Pad - Average Final | |||||
Rate 422 bbls/d (73 | |||||
High quality light oil | |||||
bbls/mmcf) | |||||
Prolific gas foundation
Low cost owned infrastructure
Q4 2018 5 Well Middle | ||
Resilient in all cycles | ||
Montney Pad - Average Final | ||
Rate 428 bbls/d per Well (85 | ||
Disciplined financial management | ||
bbls/mmcf) | ||
(1)
(2)
Management estimates. Rate of Return is assuming initial capital of $4.8 million per well DCE+T and 1.5% escalation | 11 |
Breakeven based on NPV10 pre-tax equal to zero and calculated AECO Cdn price. | |
STRATEGIC INFRASTRUCTURE CONTROL, FLEXIBLE PIPELINE ACCESS
100% Owned Glacier Gas Plant | ||||
TCPL Groundbirch | ||||
Lateral | ||||
BC | AB | Advantage | ||
Glacier | ||||
Gas Plant | ||||
AAV Progress Liquids Hub | ||||
5,000 bbls/d Q4-2020 | ||||
• 400 mmcf/d + 6,800 bbl/d capacity Glacier Plant | ||||
• >120 mmcf/d surplus capacity available | ||||
Keyera | ||||
AAV Liquids | Pipestone Plant | |||
Handling Hub | Clean, sustainable energy | |||
2,000 bbls/d | ||||
High quality light oil | ||||
Prolific gas foundation | ||||
Low cost owned infrastructure | ||||
Tidewater | AAV Wembley Liquids Hub | |||
5,000 bbls/d Q2-2020 | Resilient in all cycles | |||
Pipestone Plant | ||||
Disciplined financial management | ||||
6 miles |
12
2020 BUDGET AND GUIDANCE (1)(2)
Average production (boe/day) | 45,000 to 47,500 |
Gas production (mmcf/d) | 234 to 245 |
Liquids production (bbls/d) | 6,000 to 6,700 |
% Oil and Liquids | 13% |
Royalty Rate (%) | 3% to 5% |
Operating Expense ($/boe) | $2.50 |
Transportation Expense ($/boe) | $3.70 |
G&A/Finance Expense ($/boe) | $1.70 |
Cash Used in Investing Activities (4) (millions) | $170 to $200 |
Net Capital Expenditures (3)(4) (millions) | $170 to $200 |
Clean, sustainable energy
High quality light oil
- Forward-lookinginformation. Refer to Advisory for cautionary statements including material assumptions and risk factors.
- Refer to 2020 capital budget news release dated January 8, 2020.
- Non-GAAPmeasure which may not be comparable to similar non-GAAP measures used by other entities. Refer to Advisory.
- Net Capital Expenditures is the same as Cash Used in Investing Activities as no change in non-cash working capital is assumed between years and other differences are immaterial.
Prolific gas foundation
Low cost owned infrastructure
Resilient in all cycles
Disciplined financial management
13
LIQUIDS DEVELOPMENT - FOCUSING ON RETURNS, DIVERSIFYING REVENUE(1)
Corporate Revenue Composition
• Transition to ~50% liquids revenue |
18%
38%
9%46%
12%
13%
16%
39% 18%
16%
11%
3%
13%
22% 17%
9%
2019E 2020E 2021E
Oil/Liquids
Midwest US
Dawn
Fixed Price
Empress/Emerson
AECO
• | Mid to Long term Double digit |
Adjusted Funds Flow ("AFF") per | |
share growth & return on capital | |
employed | |
• | Generates significant free cash with |
target Total Debt to AFF ~2.0x |
Clean, sustainable energy
High quality light oil
Prolific gas foundation
Low cost owned infrastructure
Resilient in all cycles
Disciplined financial management
1) Forward-looking information. Refer to Advantage news release dated January 8, 2020 | 14 |
and Advisory for material assumptions and risk factors. | |
NATURAL GAS MARKET DIVERSIFICATION
27 MMcf/d of TC Prairie Mainline to Nov 2032
Up to 75 MMcf/d of Empress capacity - varying term durations
Clean, sustainable energy
High quality light oil
Prolific gas foundation
Low cost owned infrastructure
Resilient in all cycles
Disciplined financial management
54 MMcf/d of Dawn LTFP Capacity to Nov 2032
15
MARKET HEDGING ACTIVITIES
Current Natural Gas Hedging | ||||||
80 | (MMcf/d) | 35% | 1200 | |||
70 | 30% | 1000 | ||||
$3.16 | ||||||
60 | ||||||
25% | ||||||
800 | ||||||
50 | ||||||
20% | ||||||
600 | ||||||
40 | ||||||
30 | 15% | |||||
400 | ||||||
$2.26 | $1.36 | $1.36 | $1.36 | 10% | ||
20 | ||||||
10 | 5% | 200 | ||||
$2.31 | $2.31 | $2.31 | $2.31 | |||
0 | 0% | 0 | ||||
Q1-20 | Q2-20 | Q3-20 | Q4-20 | |||
Henry Hub ($US/Mcf) | AECO ($CAD/Mcf) | |||||
Dawn ($US/Mcf) | % of Production Hedged |
Current Crude Oil Hedging (B/d) | |||
30% | |||
25% | |||
20% | |||
15% | |||
10% | |||
$57.91 | $56.53 | $55.44 | $55.44 |
5% | |||
0% | |||
Q1-20 | Q2-20 | Q3-20 | Q4-20 |
Crude Oil Hedges | % of Liquids Production Hedged |
Clean, sustainable energy | ||||||||||
Physical Flows | Q1-20 | Q2-20 | Q3-20 | Q4-20 | 2021 | 2022-2027 | ||||
AECO | 63% | 50% | 47% | 26% | 15% | 26% - 50% | High quality light oil | |||
Empress | 0% | 0% | 0% | 7% | 13% | 10% - 20% | ||||
Prolific gas foundation | ||||||||||
TCPL Mainline | 21% | 22% | 23% | 30% | 34% | 29% - 32% | ||||
Low cost owned infrastructure | ||||||||||
U.S. Midwest | 16% | 28% | 30% | 37% | 38% | 10% - 22% | ||||
Resilient in all cycles | ||||||||||
Disciplined financial management
16
Financial Discipline
Operationally Nimble
Returns Focus
APPENDIX
18
OPERATIONS OVERVIEW - SHIFTING TO MIDDLE MONTNEY LIQUIDS
Deep Liquids-Rich Inventory (1)(2)(3)
Booked Undeveloped | Unbooked | Upside |
Progress
Glacier
TOTAL future location inventory ~1,400 to 1,500
Valhalla
Pipestone/
Wembley
70
216
697
129
244 |
11 |
<25 bbls/mmcf | 25-100 bbls/mmcf | >100 bbls/mmcf |
Liquids-rich Middle Montney
- Total of ~210 net sections (134,400 net acres)
- Middle Montney is liquids-rich throughout (25 to 280 bbls/mmcf)
- Only 75 liquids-rich wells drilled to date - 6% of inventory
- 100% Ownership of Glacier Gas Plant
- 400 mmcf/d raw gas capacity, 6,800 bbls/d liquids handling
- Management Estimates. Refer to Advisory.
(2) | Based on Sproule December 31, 2018 Reserves Report. | 19 |
(3) | C + shallow cut recoveries. | |
3 |
ADVISORY
Forward-Looking Information and Statements
The information in this presentation contains certain forward-looking information and forward-looking statements (collectively, "forward-looking statements") within the meaning of applicable securities laws relating to the Corporation's plans and other aspects of its anticipated future operations, management focus, strategies, financial, operating and production results and business opportunities. These statements relate to future events or our future intentions or performance. All statements other than statements of historical fact may be forward-looking statements. The statements have been prepared by management to provide an outlook of the Corporation's activities and results and may not be appropriate for other purposes. Forward-looking statements are often, but not always, identified by the use of words such as "seek", "anticipate", "plan", "continue", "estimate", "guidance", "demonstrate", "expect", "may", "can", "will", "project", "predict", "potential", "target", "intend", "could", "might", "should", "believe", "would" and similar expressions and include statements relating to, among other things, the Corporation's estimated net capital expenditures for 2020, including the expected allocation and timing of such expenditures and the anticipated effect of such expenditures on revenue; the development focus of the 2020 capital budget and the anticipated timing thereof; the anticipated effect of net capital expenditures on liquids production, including the estimated amount of such production; expected focus and results to be derived from the 2020 capital budget, including, but not limited to, increasing annual liquids production and the anticipated amount thereof, diversifying the Corporation's revenue sources and developing additional operational and infrastructure capability and how this will be achieved; the expected amount by which revenues from liquids production will increase in 2020 and 2021 as a percentage of total revenue; the expected amount of average production in 2020, including the expected amount of gas production and liquids production; the estimated total debt to adjusted funds flow ratio for 2020; anticipated royalty rates, operating expense, transportation expense and G&A/finance expense for 2020; expectations that the owned Glacier gas plant has capacity to accommodate future growth and provide third party processing opportunities; the anticipated timing of wells being brought on production; drilling and development plans for 2020; anticipated disruptions to production while the oil battery at Pipestone/Wembley is being completed, the expected timing of such completion and the anticipated effect of such battery on performance and production; anticipated timing of production from certain wells at Pipestone/Wembley; the expected timing of completion of commissioning an oil battery at Progress and the tie-in of the Progress asset to Advantage's existing Glacier pipeline system; resource development potential of the Corporation's assets and the Corporation's future drilling inventory; the benefits derived from third party processing arrangements the Corporation entered into with two midstream firms; the Corporation's plans to continue to be a low-cost supplier of natural gas, condensate and light oil and to grow adjusted funds flow per share, increase free cash generation and strengthen netback margins; and other matters. Advantage's actual decisions, activities, results, performance or achievement could differ materially from those expressed in, or implied by, such forward-looking statements and accordingly, no assurances can be given that any of the events anticipated by the forward-looking statements will transpire or occur or, if any of them do, what benefits that Advantage will derive from them.
With respect to the forward-looking statements contained in this presentation, Advantage has made a number of material assumptions regarding, but not limited to: current and future commodity prices; the Corporation's current and future hedging program; future exchange rates; future production and composition including natural gas and liquids; royalty regimes and future royalty rates; future operating costs; future transportation costs and availability of product
20
ADVISORY
transportation capacity; future general and administrative costs; the estimated well costs including frac stages and lateral lengths per well; the number of new wells required to achieve the objectives of the 2020 budget; that the Corporation will be able to complete its infrastructure projects on a timely basis; the timing for the construction to be completed on third party mid-stream facilities; timing and amount of net capital expenditures; and that the Corporation will have sufficient financial resources required to fund its capital and operating expenditures and requirements as needed.
Management has included the summary of assumptions and risks related to forward-looking information in order to provide shareholders with a more complete perspective on Advantage's future operations and such information may not be appropriate for other purposes. Advantage's actual results, performance or achievement could differ materially from those expressed in, or implied by, these forward-looking statements and, accordingly, no assurance can be given that any of the events anticipated by the forward-looking statements will transpire or occur, or if any of them do so, what benefits that Advantage will derive there from. Readers are cautioned that the foregoing lists of factors are not exhaustive. The Corporation and management believe that the statements have been prepared on a reasonable basis, reflecting management's best estimates and judgments. However, because this information is highly subjective and subject to numerous risks including the risks discussed above, it should not be relied on as necessarily indicative of future results. These forward-looking statements are made as of the date of this presentation and Advantage disclaims any intent or obligation to update publicly any forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events or results or otherwise, other than as required by applicable securities laws.
These statements involve substantial known and unknown risks and uncertainties, certain of which are beyond Advantage's control, including, but not limited to: changes in general economic, market and business conditions; industry conditions; impact of significant declines in market prices for oil and natural gas; actions by governmental or regulatory authorities including increasing taxes and changes in investment or other regulations; changes in tax laws, royalty regimes and incentive programs relating to the oil and gas industry; the effect of acquisitions; Advantage's success at acquisition, exploitation and development of reserves; failure to achieve production targets on timelines anticipated or at all; unexpected drilling results; risk and assumptions used in estimating the 2020 budget, including commodity prices, timing of expenditures and the focus of such expenditures, change from current expectations; risk that the Corporation does not achieve the anticipated increases to production and revenues expected from the 2020 capital budget; changes in commodity prices, currency exchange rates, net capital expenditures, reserves or reserves estimates and debt service requirements; the occurrence of unexpected events involved in the exploration for, and the operation and development of, oil and gas properties, including hazards such as fire, explosion, blowouts, cratering, and spills, each of which could result in substantial damage to wells, production facilities, other property and the environment or in personal injury; changes or fluctuations in production levels; individual well productivity; lack of available capacity on pipelines; delays in anticipated timing of drilling and completion of wells; delays in completion of infrastructure; lack of available capacity on pipelines; individual well productivity; competition from other producers; the lack of availability of qualified personnel or management; credit risk; changes in laws and regulations including the adoption of new environmental laws and regulations and changes in how they are interpreted and enforced; our ability to comply with current and future environmental or other laws; stock market volatility and market valuations; liabilities inherent in oil and natural gas operations; uncertainties associated with estimating oil
21
ADVISORY
and natural gas reserves; competition for, among other things, capital, acquisitions of reserves, undeveloped lands and skilled personnel; incorrect assessments of the value of acquisitions; geological, technical, drilling and processing problems and other difficulties in producing petroleum reserves; ability to obtain required approvals of regulatory authorities; and ability to access sufficient capital from internal and external sources. Many of these risks and uncertainties and additional risk factors are described in the Corporation's Annual Information Form dated February 28, 2019 which is available at www.Sedar.com and www.advantageog.com.
Oil and Gas Information
Barrels of oil equivalent ("boe") and thousand cubic feet of natural gas equivalent ("mcfe") may be misleading, particularly if used in isolation. Boe and mcfe conversion ratios have been calculated using a conversion rate of six thousand cubic feet of natural gas equivalent to one barrel of oil. A boe and mcfe conversion ratio of 6 mcf: 1 bbl is based on an energy equivalency conversion method primarily applicable at the burner tip and does not represent a value equivalency at the wellhead. Given that the value ratio based on the current price of crude oil as compared to natural gas is significantly different from the energy equivalency of 6:1, utilizing a conversion on a 6:1 basis may be misleading as an indication of value.
This presentation discloses drilling inventory in the Glacier, Valhalla, Progress and Pipestone/Wembley areas in three categories: (i) proved locations; (ii) probable locations; and (iii) unbooked locations. Proved locations and probable locations are derived from Sproule Associates Limited reserves evaluation effective December 31, 2018 and account for drilling locations that have associated proved and/or probable reserves, as applicable. Unbooked locations are internal estimates based on our prospective acreage and an assumption as to the number of wells that can be drilled per section based on industry practice and internal review. Unbooked locations do not have attributed reserves or resources. Of the 1,400 to 1,500 total drilling locations identified herein, 327 are proved locations, 29 are probable locations and 1,044 to 1,144 are unbooked locations. Unbooked locations have been identified by management as an estimation of our multi-year drilling activities based on evaluation of applicable geologic, seismic, engineering, production and reserves information. There is no certainty that the Corporation will drill all unbooked drilling locations and if drilled there is no certainty that such locations will result in additional oil and gas reserves, resources or production. The drilling locations on which we actually drill wells will ultimately depend upon the availability of capital, regulatory approvals, seasonal restrictions, oil and natural gas prices, costs, actual drilling results, additional reservoir information that is obtained and other factors. While certain of the unbooked drilling locations have been de-risked by drilling existing wells in relative close proximity to such unbooked drilling locations, other unbooked drilling locations are farther away from existing wells where management has less information about the characteristics of the reservoir and therefore there is more uncertainty whether wells will be drilled in such locations and if drilled there is more uncertainty that such wells will result in additional oil and gas reserves, resources or production.
22
ADVISORY
References in this presentation to production test rates, initial production rates, IP30 rates, flow rates, yields and other short-term production rates are useful in confirming the presence of hydrocarbons, however such rates are not determinative of the rates at which such wells will commence production and decline thereafter and are not indicative of long term performance or of ultimate recovery. Additionally, such rates may also include recovered "load oil" fluids used in well completion stimulation. While encouraging, readers are cautioned not to place reliance on such rates in calculating the aggregate production of Advantage. Advantage cautions that the test results should be considered to be preliminary.
Advantage has presented certain type curves and well economics for its Montney areas. The type curves presented are based on Advantage's historical production. Such type curves and well economics are useful in understanding management's assumptions of well performance in making investment decisions in relation to development drilling in the Montney area and for determining the success of the performance of development wells; however, such type curves and well economics are not necessarily determinative of the production rates and performance of existing and future wells and such type curves do not reflect the type curves used by our independent qualified reserves evaluator in estimating our reserves volumes. The type curves differ as a result of varying horizontal well length, stage count and stage spacing. The type curves represent the average type curves expected. In this presentation, estimated ultimate recovery represents the estimated ultimate recovery associated with the type curves presented; however, there is no certainty that Advantage will ultimately recover such volumes from the wells it drills.
In presenting such type curves, inputs and economics information and in this presentation generally, Advantage has used a number of oil and gas metrics which do not have standardized meanings and therefore may be calculated differently from the metrics presented by other oil and gas companies. Such metrics include DCE+T, "EUR", "NPV10", "payout", "rate of return" (or "ROR"), "half cycle ROR", and "operating netback". EUR represents the estimated ultimate recovery of resources associated with the type curves presented. NPV10 represents the anticipated net present value of the future net revenue discounted at a rate of 10% associated with the type curves presented. Payout means the anticipated years of production from a well required to fully pay for the DCE+T of such well. ROR means the rate of return of a well or the discount rate required to arrive at a NPV equal to zero. Half cycle ROR means the rate of return of a well or the discount rate required to arrive at a NPV equal to zero when taking into account "half cycle" costs, which include drilling, completion, equip and tie-in capital expenditures.
Production estimates contained herein are expressed as anticipated average production over the calendar year. In determining anticipated production for the years ended 2019 to 2021 Advantage considered historical drilling, completion and production results for prior years and took into account the estimated impact on production of the Corporation's 2019 to 2021 expected drilling and completion activities.
23
ADVISORY
Non-GAAP Measures
The Corporation discloses several financial and performance measures that do not have any standardized meaning prescribed under International Financial Reporting Standards ("IFRS" or "GAAP"). These financial and performance measures include "net capital expenditures", "adjusted funds flow", "adjusted funds flow per share", "total debt", and "total debt to adjusted funds flow". Such financial and performance measures should not be considered as alternatives to, or more meaningful than measures determined in accordance with GAAP including "net income", "comprehensive income", "cash provided by operating activities", or "cash used in investing activities". Management believes that these measures provide an indication of the results generated by the Corporation's principal business activities and provide useful supplemental information for analysis of the Corporation's operating performance and liquidity. Advantage's method of calculating these measures may differ from other companies, and accordingly, they may not be comparable to similar measures used by other companies. "Net capital expenditures" include total capital expenditures related to property, plant and equipment and exploration and evaluation assets incurred during the period. Management considers this measure reflective of actual capital activity for the period as it excludes changes in working capital related to other periods. The Corporation considers "adjusted funds flow" to be a useful measure of Advantage's ability to generate cash from the production of natural gas and liquids, which may be used to settle outstanding debt and obligations, and to support future capital expenditures plans. Changes in non-cash working capital are excluded from adjusted funds flow as they may vary significantly between periods and are not considered to be indicative of the Corporation's operating performance as they are a function of the timeliness of collecting receivables or paying payables. Expenditures on decommissioning liabilities are excluded from the calculation as the amount and timing of these expenditures are unrelated to current production, highly variable and discretionary. "Total debt" is the total of bank indebtedness and working capital deficit. "Total debt to adjusted funds flow" is a ratio calculated as total debt divided by adjusted funds flow for the previous four quarters. Total debt to adjusted funds flow is considered by management to be a useful measure as it is commonly used to evaluate the leverage of a company and the ability to settle outstanding debt and obligations with cash generated from operations. Refer to the Corporation's most recent Management's Discussion and Analysis, which is available at www.sedar.com and www.advantageog.com, for additional information about certain financial measures, including reconciliations to the nearest GAAP measures, as applicable.
24
ADVISORY
Abbreviations
The following abbreviations used in this presentation have the meanings set forth below.
bblbarrel
bbl/d | barrel per day |
bbls/d | barrels per day |
bbls/mmcf | barrels per million cubic feet |
boe | barrels of oil equivalent of natural gas, on the basis of one barrel of oil or natural gas liquids for six thousand cubic feet of natural gas |
boe/d | barrels of oil equivalent per day |
GJ | Gigajoule |
mcf | thousand cubic feet |
Mcfe | thousand cubic feet equivalent on the basis of six thousand cubic feet of natural gas for one barrel of oil or natural gas liquids |
mmcf/d | million cubic feet per day |
mmcfe/d | million cubic feet equivalent per day |
NGL | natural gas liquids |
DCE+T | drill, complete, equip and tie-in |
C3+ | propane plus |
C5+ | pentanes plus |
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ADVANTAGE CONTACT INFORMATION
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Advantage 100% W.I. Glacier Gas Plant
Andy Mah, P.Eng. | Director, Chief Executive Officer |
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Advantage Oil & Gas Ltd. published this content on 09 January 2020 and is solely responsible for the information contained therein. Distributed by Public, unedited and unaltered, on 10 January 2020 04:02:07 UTC