A Progressive Montney Producer for the New
Energy Market
Investor Presentation | December 2023 |
(1)
Advantage Corporate Highlights
Market Overview
Market Capitalization: $1.6 b
Enterprise Value: $1.8 b
Net Debt(2): $206.7 m (Advantage only)
Shares Outstanding: 162.4 m
TSX 52-week high/low: AAV $11.97 - $6.79
2024 Guidance (3)
Strategic focus: AFF per share(2) growth
65,000 to 68,000 BOE/d
$260 m to $290 m capital spending
All free cash flow(2) dedicated to buybacks
Pure Play Montney Producer
Decades of top-tier inventory
Glacier Gas Plant capacity of 425 mmcf/d
Operating cost ~$0.64/mcfe
Carbon Capture and Storage Developer
Subsidiary Entropy Inc. financed
by Brookfield and CGF
Developing global scale "pipeline" of projects
Post-combustion CCS project at Glacier is
first-in-kind globally
Ownership of leading solvent and process technologies to drive costs below $40/tonne
1. Advantage was recognized by the TSX as one of the top 30 issuers based on 3-yeardividend-adjusted share price performance (www.tsx.com/tsx30).
2. | See "Specified Financial Measures" in Advantage's MD&A on page 34 for the year ended December 31, 2022 and page 28 for the three and nine months ended September 30, 2023 for information relating to these measures, | 2 |
which information is incorporated by reference into this presentation. See "Specified Financial Measures" in the Advisory of this presentation. | ||
3. | All 2024 Guidance excludes the financial and operating results of Entropy Inc., a subsidiary of Advantage. |
Corporate Strategy - Strength Across the Board
Performance
10% annual production growth
Net debt(1) target of $200 m to $250 m(2)
Bought back ~18% of shares and
returned $356 million to shareholders(3)
Evolving Competitively
Entropy Inc. -
Modular Carbon Capture and StorageTM
Advancing liquids development
Technical enhancements delivering
superior performance
Top Tier Asset Quality
186% PDP reserve additions replaced(1),
$6.10/boe FD&A(1) cost (2022)
Well payouts(1) averaged 6 producing
months (2022)
Infrastructure dominance facilitating
production growth & midstream revenue
Foundations in Risk Management
20% to 50% commodity hedges
Diversified gas markets and low relative
commitments
Low abandonment liability and
responsible stewardship
1. | See "Specified Financial Measures" in Advantage's MD&A on page 34 for the year ended December 31, 2022 and page 28 for the three and nine months ended September 30, 2023 for information relating to these | |
measures, which information is incorporated by reference into this presentation. See "Specified Financial Measures" in the Advisory of this presentation. | 3 | |
2. | Net debt target excludes Entropy Inc., a subsidiary of Advantage. | |
3. | Shares bought back from April 13, 2022 to November 30, 2023. Percentage based on shares repurchased compared to the 190.8 million shares outstanding on March 31, 2022. |
2024 Capital Investment Thesis Maximizes AFF Per Share(1)(2)
Glacier
20 wells (20 net)
$260 - $290 | |
million | Wembley |
Net Capital | 3 wells (3 net) |
Expenditures (1) |
Phased infrastructure investments pave the path to 500+ mmcf/d operated capacity
Capital Efficiency (1)
$13,000/boe/d
24% corporate decline rate (1)
Production
65,000 to 68,000 boe/d
Net Debt (1) Target
$200 million to $250 million(3)
Maximizing AFF Per Share
Free Cash Flow Allocated to Share Buybacks
Low Cost Structure
Operating expense ~$3.85/boe
1. See "Specified Financial Measures" in Advantage's MD&A on page 34 for the year ended December 31, 2022 and page 28 for the three and nine months ended September 30, 2023 for information relating to these measures, which information is incorporated by reference into this presentation. See "Specified Financial Measures" in the Advisory of this presentation.
2. Forward-looking information. See "Corporate Update" on page 3 in Advantage's MD&A for the year ended December 31, 2022 for an explanation of significant differences in forward-looking information and historical results. | 4 |
Refer to the Advisory in this presentation and Advantage's news release dated November 30, 2023 including advisories in the press release for material assumptions and risk factors. | |
3. Net debt target excludes Entropy Inc., a subsidiary of Advantage. |
Three-Year Strategic Plan: Investing in Measured Production Growth
Millions
$400
$300
$200
$100
$0
Net Capital Expenditures (1)(2)
2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
Production Range (2)
80,000
75,000
70,000
65,000
60,000
55,000
50,000
2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
Range
1. See "Specified Financial Measures" in Advantage's MD&A on page 34 for the year ended December 31, 2022 and page 28 for the three and nine months ended September 30, 2023 for information relating to these measures, which
information is incorporated by reference into this presentation. See "Specified Financial Measures" in the Advisory of this presentation. | |
2. Forward-looking information. See "Corporate Update" on page 3 in Advantage's MD&A for the year ended December 31, 2022 for an explanation of significant differences in forward-looking information and historical results. Refer to | |
the Advisory in this presentation and Advantage's news release dated November 30, 2023 including advisories in the press release for material assumptions and risk factors. 2025 for illustration purposes only and is subject to a number | 5 |
of factors including 2023/24 results. |
Three-Year Strategic Plan: Maximize AFF per Share Growth
4.00
3.50
3.00
2.50
2.00
1.50
1.00
0.50
0.00
Adjusted Funds Flow per Share at Strip Pricing(1)(2)
2023 | 2024 | 2025 | |
Without Share Buybacks | With Share Buybacks | ||
Millions
$500
$400
$300
$200
$100
$0
2024 AFF Sensitivity(3)
C$3.50/GJ AECO | ||||
Free Cash Flow | ||||
C$3.00/GJ AECO | ||||
Dedicated to | ||||
Shareholder Returns | ||||
C$2.50/GJ AECO | ||||
C$1.90/GJ AECO | ||||
Capital Spending | ||||
Delivering | ||||
~10% Production | ||||
Growth | ||||
Adjusted Funds Flow | Capital Allocation |
- Advantage expects it will not be subject to cash taxes until calendar 2026 due to its $1.1 billion in high-quality tax pools. AFF per share with share buybacks assumes production growth of approximately 10% annually and all FCF dedicated to share buybacks. Without share buybacks analysis assumes that no shares were bought back from April 13, 2022 and net debt reduced and cash accumulated.
- Strip pricing assumptions: WTI US$/bbl (2023-$78,2024-$73,2025-$69), AECO $CDN/GJ (2023-$2.59,2024-$2.77,2025-$3.77), FX $CDN/$US (2023-1.35,2024-1.37,2025-1.37), includes hedges.
- Other price assumptions include WTI US$75/bbl, AECO/NYMEX Basis range US$0.85-US$1.78/mmbtu, $CAD/$USD 1.35 and hedging.
6
World Class Assets, Operational Excellence, Environmental Leadership
PROGRESS
GLACIER
Glacier Carbon Capture
& Storage Asset
VALHALLA
WEMBLEY
Alberta Core Assets
226 Net Montney Sections
AAV Lands
AAV Facilities
Disciplined Financial Management
Self-funded growth with free cash flow (1)
Prolific Gas Foundation
Free cash flow (1) generation with low declines and cost
High Quality Light Oil
Deep inventory of high quality resource
Clean Sustainable Energy
State of the art emissions engineering
Low-Cost Owned Infrastructure
Controlled, efficient, innovative
Invested in Alberta's Communities
Generating employment and giving back
1. See "Specified Financial Measures" in Advantage's MD&A on page 34 for the year ended December 31, 2022 for information relating to these measures, which information is incorporated by reference into this | 7 |
presentation. See "Specified Financial Measures" in the Advisory of this presentation. |
Low-Cost Structure: Key Factor in Free Cash Flow Generation
Op Exp | Royalty Exp | G&A | Int Exp | Trans Exp(1) |
$/boe
$30
$25
$20
$15
$10
$5
$0
Peer | AAV | Peer | Peer | Peer | Peer | Peer | Peer | Peer | Peer | Peer | Peer | Peer | Peer | Peer |
1. Transportation expense is not a typical cost as it is generally associated with accessing higher priced markets. | 8 |
2. Source: Scotiabank, November 20, 2023. Cash costs year-to-date, 2023. |
Advantage Montney Assets - Multizone Oil, Liquids and Gas Throughout
Doig
Upper
Montney
Middle
Montney
300m
Glacier | Valhalla | Progress | Wembley | Conroy, BC |
D4
D3
D2
D1
2024 Targets
Lower | Advantage Operated HZ | |
Montney | ||
Belloy | Offset Operator HZ | |
9 | ||
Glacier Core: World-Class Free Cash Flow(1) Engine | |||||||||||||
Glacier Production Forecast2 | Net Capital Expenditures1 & FCF1 | ||||||||||||
Actuals | Free Cash | ||||||||||||
Net Operating Income | 1,2 | Flow1 | |||||||||||
Growth | 1,2 | ||||||||||||
04-01: On stream Q4/23 | Net Capital Expenditures [MM$] | Engine | |||||||||||
Base | |||||||||||||
3 | Cumulative Free Cash Flow [MM$] | 1,2 | |||||||||||
boe/d | |||||||||||||
09-32: Q4/24 | $530MM+ | ||||||||||||
2-32: Q4/23 | |||||||||||||
Production | |||||||||||||
08-17: Q3/24 | |||||||||||||
2023 | 2024 | 2025 | |||||||||||
05-21: Q1/24 | Planned Turnaround | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | |||||||||
IP180 Comparison vs Peers | |||||||||||||
13-12: Q3/24 | |||||||||||||
→ | P10 | ||||||||||||
Probability | |||||||||||||
13-28: Q2/24 | Newest AAV wells | ||||||||||||
Peer 2 | Peer 1 | AAV | |||||||||||
P50 | |||||||||||||
AAV Pipelines | |||||||||||||
Cumulative | |||||||||||||
04-22: Q1/24 Frac | 2024 Locations | Median AAV Wells | |||||||||||
Upper Montney | Significantly Outperform Peers | ||||||||||||
Montney D4 | P90 | ||||||||||||
Montney D1 | |||||||||||||
2023 wells | Higher Well Productivity |
Cum. 180 day BCF/100m
- See "Specified Financial Measures" in Advantage's MD&A on page 34 for the year ended December 31, 2022 for information relating to these measures, which information is incorporated by reference into this presentation. See "Specified Financial Measures" in the Advisory of this presentation.
- Forward-lookinginformation. See "Corporate Update" on page 3 in Advantage's MD&A for the year ended December 31, 2022 for an explanation of significant differences in forward-looking information and historical results. Refer to the Advisory in this presentation and Advantage's news release dated
November 30, 2023 including advisories in the press release for material assumptions and risk factors. 2025 is for illustration purposes only and is subject to a number of factors including 2023/24 results. Economic calculations based on strip pricing assumptions: WTI US$/bbl (2023-$78,2024-$73, 2025- | 10 |
$69), AECO $CDN/GJ (2023-$2.59,2024-$2.77,2025-$3.77), FX $CDN/$US (2023-1.35,2024-1.37,2025-1.37). | |
3. Production rates are Advantage working interest sales volumes. |
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Disclaimer
Advantage Oil & Gas Ltd. published this content on 20 December 2023 and is solely responsible for the information contained therein. Distributed by Public, unedited and unaltered, on 20 December 2023 13:57:37 UTC.