A Progressive Montney Producer for the New

Energy Market

Investor Presentation

December 2023

(1)

Advantage Corporate Highlights

Market Overview

Market Capitalization: $1.6 b

Enterprise Value: $1.8 b

Net Debt(2): $206.7 m (Advantage only)

Shares Outstanding: 162.4 m

TSX 52-week high/low: AAV $11.97 - $6.79

2024 Guidance (3)

Strategic focus: AFF per share(2) growth

65,000 to 68,000 BOE/d

$260 m to $290 m capital spending

All free cash flow(2) dedicated to buybacks

Pure Play Montney Producer

Decades of top-tier inventory

Glacier Gas Plant capacity of 425 mmcf/d

Operating cost ~$0.64/mcfe

Carbon Capture and Storage Developer

Subsidiary Entropy Inc. financed

by Brookfield and CGF

Developing global scale "pipeline" of projects

Post-combustion CCS project at Glacier is

first-in-kind globally

Ownership of leading solvent and process technologies to drive costs below $40/tonne

1. Advantage was recognized by the TSX as one of the top 30 issuers based on 3-yeardividend-adjusted share price performance (www.tsx.com/tsx30).

2.

See "Specified Financial Measures" in Advantage's MD&A on page 34 for the year ended December 31, 2022 and page 28 for the three and nine months ended September 30, 2023 for information relating to these measures,

2

which information is incorporated by reference into this presentation. See "Specified Financial Measures" in the Advisory of this presentation.

3.

All 2024 Guidance excludes the financial and operating results of Entropy Inc., a subsidiary of Advantage.

Corporate Strategy - Strength Across the Board

Performance

10% annual production growth

Net debt(1) target of $200 m to $250 m(2)

Bought back ~18% of shares and

returned $356 million to shareholders(3)

Evolving Competitively

Entropy Inc. -

Modular Carbon Capture and StorageTM

Advancing liquids development

Technical enhancements delivering

superior performance

Top Tier Asset Quality

186% PDP reserve additions replaced(1),

$6.10/boe FD&A(1) cost (2022)

Well payouts(1) averaged 6 producing

months (2022)

Infrastructure dominance facilitating

production growth & midstream revenue

Foundations in Risk Management

20% to 50% commodity hedges

Diversified gas markets and low relative

commitments

Low abandonment liability and

responsible stewardship

1.

See "Specified Financial Measures" in Advantage's MD&A on page 34 for the year ended December 31, 2022 and page 28 for the three and nine months ended September 30, 2023 for information relating to these

measures, which information is incorporated by reference into this presentation. See "Specified Financial Measures" in the Advisory of this presentation.

3

2.

Net debt target excludes Entropy Inc., a subsidiary of Advantage.

3.

Shares bought back from April 13, 2022 to November 30, 2023. Percentage based on shares repurchased compared to the 190.8 million shares outstanding on March 31, 2022.

2024 Capital Investment Thesis Maximizes AFF Per Share(1)(2)

Glacier

20 wells (20 net)

$260 - $290

million

Wembley

Net Capital

3 wells (3 net)

Expenditures (1)

Phased infrastructure investments pave the path to 500+ mmcf/d operated capacity

Capital Efficiency (1)

$13,000/boe/d

24% corporate decline rate (1)

Production

65,000 to 68,000 boe/d

Net Debt (1) Target

$200 million to $250 million(3)

Maximizing AFF Per Share

Free Cash Flow Allocated to Share Buybacks

Low Cost Structure

Operating expense ~$3.85/boe

1. See "Specified Financial Measures" in Advantage's MD&A on page 34 for the year ended December 31, 2022 and page 28 for the three and nine months ended September 30, 2023 for information relating to these measures, which information is incorporated by reference into this presentation. See "Specified Financial Measures" in the Advisory of this presentation.

2. Forward-looking information. See "Corporate Update" on page 3 in Advantage's MD&A for the year ended December 31, 2022 for an explanation of significant differences in forward-looking information and historical results.

4

Refer to the Advisory in this presentation and Advantage's news release dated November 30, 2023 including advisories in the press release for material assumptions and risk factors.

3. Net debt target excludes Entropy Inc., a subsidiary of Advantage.

Three-Year Strategic Plan: Investing in Measured Production Growth

Millions

$400

$300

$200

$100

$0

Net Capital Expenditures (1)(2)

2023

2024

2025

Production Range (2)

80,000

75,000

70,000

65,000

60,000

55,000

50,000

2023

2024

2025

Range

1. See "Specified Financial Measures" in Advantage's MD&A on page 34 for the year ended December 31, 2022 and page 28 for the three and nine months ended September 30, 2023 for information relating to these measures, which

information is incorporated by reference into this presentation. See "Specified Financial Measures" in the Advisory of this presentation.

2. Forward-looking information. See "Corporate Update" on page 3 in Advantage's MD&A for the year ended December 31, 2022 for an explanation of significant differences in forward-looking information and historical results. Refer to

the Advisory in this presentation and Advantage's news release dated November 30, 2023 including advisories in the press release for material assumptions and risk factors. 2025 for illustration purposes only and is subject to a number

5

of factors including 2023/24 results.

Three-Year Strategic Plan: Maximize AFF per Share Growth

4.00

3.50

3.00

2.50

2.00

1.50

1.00

0.50

0.00

Adjusted Funds Flow per Share at Strip Pricing(1)(2)

2023

2024

2025

Without Share Buybacks

With Share Buybacks

Millions

$500

$400

$300

$200

$100

$0

2024 AFF Sensitivity(3)

C$3.50/GJ AECO

Free Cash Flow

C$3.00/GJ AECO

Dedicated to

Shareholder Returns

C$2.50/GJ AECO

C$1.90/GJ AECO

Capital Spending

Delivering

~10% Production

Growth

Adjusted Funds Flow

Capital Allocation

  1. Advantage expects it will not be subject to cash taxes until calendar 2026 due to its $1.1 billion in high-quality tax pools. AFF per share with share buybacks assumes production growth of approximately 10% annually and all FCF dedicated to share buybacks. Without share buybacks analysis assumes that no shares were bought back from April 13, 2022 and net debt reduced and cash accumulated.
  2. Strip pricing assumptions: WTI US$/bbl (2023-$78,2024-$73,2025-$69), AECO $CDN/GJ (2023-$2.59,2024-$2.77,2025-$3.77), FX $CDN/$US (2023-1.35,2024-1.37,2025-1.37), includes hedges.
  3. Other price assumptions include WTI US$75/bbl, AECO/NYMEX Basis range US$0.85-US$1.78/mmbtu, $CAD/$USD 1.35 and hedging.

6

World Class Assets, Operational Excellence, Environmental Leadership

PROGRESS

GLACIER

Glacier Carbon Capture

& Storage Asset

VALHALLA

WEMBLEY

Alberta Core Assets

226 Net Montney Sections

AAV Lands

AAV Facilities

Disciplined Financial Management

Self-funded growth with free cash flow (1)

Prolific Gas Foundation

Free cash flow (1) generation with low declines and cost

High Quality Light Oil

Deep inventory of high quality resource

Clean Sustainable Energy

State of the art emissions engineering

Low-Cost Owned Infrastructure

Controlled, efficient, innovative

Invested in Alberta's Communities

Generating employment and giving back

1. See "Specified Financial Measures" in Advantage's MD&A on page 34 for the year ended December 31, 2022 for information relating to these measures, which information is incorporated by reference into this

7

presentation. See "Specified Financial Measures" in the Advisory of this presentation.

Low-Cost Structure: Key Factor in Free Cash Flow Generation

Op Exp

Royalty Exp

G&A

Int Exp

Trans Exp(1)

$/boe

$30

$25

$20

$15

$10

$5

$0

Peer

AAV

Peer

Peer

Peer

Peer

Peer

Peer

Peer

Peer

Peer

Peer

Peer

Peer

Peer

1. Transportation expense is not a typical cost as it is generally associated with accessing higher priced markets.

8

2. Source: Scotiabank, November 20, 2023. Cash costs year-to-date, 2023.

Advantage Montney Assets - Multizone Oil, Liquids and Gas Throughout

Doig

Upper

Montney

Middle

Montney

300m

Glacier

Valhalla

Progress

Wembley

Conroy, BC

D4

D3

D2

D1

2024 Targets

Lower

Advantage Operated HZ

Montney

Belloy

Offset Operator HZ

9

Glacier Core: World-Class Free Cash Flow(1) Engine

Glacier Production Forecast2

Net Capital Expenditures1 & FCF1

Actuals

Free Cash

Net Operating Income

1,2

Flow1

Growth

1,2

04-01: On stream Q4/23

Net Capital Expenditures [MM$]

Engine

Base

3

Cumulative Free Cash Flow [MM$]

1,2

boe/d

09-32: Q4/24

$530MM+

2-32: Q4/23

Production

08-17: Q3/24

2023

2024

2025

05-21: Q1/24

Planned Turnaround

2023

2024

2025

IP180 Comparison vs Peers

13-12: Q3/24

P10

Probability

13-28: Q2/24

Newest AAV wells

Peer 2

Peer 1

AAV

P50

AAV Pipelines

Cumulative

04-22: Q1/24 Frac

2024 Locations

Median AAV Wells

Upper Montney

Significantly Outperform Peers

Montney D4

P90

Montney D1

2023 wells

Higher Well Productivity

Cum. 180 day BCF/100m

  1. See "Specified Financial Measures" in Advantage's MD&A on page 34 for the year ended December 31, 2022 for information relating to these measures, which information is incorporated by reference into this presentation. See "Specified Financial Measures" in the Advisory of this presentation.
  2. Forward-lookinginformation. See "Corporate Update" on page 3 in Advantage's MD&A for the year ended December 31, 2022 for an explanation of significant differences in forward-looking information and historical results. Refer to the Advisory in this presentation and Advantage's news release dated

November 30, 2023 including advisories in the press release for material assumptions and risk factors. 2025 is for illustration purposes only and is subject to a number of factors including 2023/24 results. Economic calculations based on strip pricing assumptions: WTI US$/bbl (2023-$78,2024-$73, 2025-

10

$69), AECO $CDN/GJ (2023-$2.59,2024-$2.77,2025-$3.77), FX $CDN/$US (2023-1.35,2024-1.37,2025-1.37).

3. Production rates are Advantage working interest sales volumes.

Attachments

  • Original Link
  • Original Document
  • Permalink

Disclaimer

Advantage Oil & Gas Ltd. published this content on 20 December 2023 and is solely responsible for the information contained therein. Distributed by Public, unedited and unaltered, on 20 December 2023 13:57:37 UTC.