By Kirk Maltais


--Soybeans for November delivery fell 1.5%, to $12.52 1/2 a bushel, on the Chicago Board of Trade on Wednesday, with traders continuing a downward pattern amid weakness of soy products and whispers of the USDA actually revising soybean yield higher in tomorrow's WASDE report.

--Wheat for December delivery fell 0.5%, to $5.56 a bushel.

--Corn for December delivery rose 0.5%, to $4.88 a bushel.


HIGHLIGHTS


Wider Window: Soybeans continued to follow the slide of soy products like oil, with rumors of tomorrow's WASDE report showing higher soybean yield running counter to the expectations of tight supplies in the U.S. "The soybean market just continues to push lower counter seasonally," said Don Roose of U.S. Commodities. Soyoil futures dropped 1% Wednesday.

Outside Possibility: Corn futures were positive in trading with support from a dry forecast in Argentina, where farmers need a burst of rain to establish freshly planted corn. However, this isn't expected to be a long-term source of support for prices, said Rich Nelson of Allendale. "Corn is instead artificially holding up until the Argentina weather story changes," he said.

Loosened Belt: Some grain traders expect tomorrow's WASDE to show an increasingly loose picture of world wheat inventories, driven by a strong Russian crop along with slower-than-expected consumption of U.S. wheat. In turn, wheat futures fell, with Ukrainian ports also receiving more shipping vessels moving wheat shipments.


INSIGHT


Big Picture: The macroeconomic conditions seen for much of this year are taking "a disproportionate toll" on the U.S. agricultural industry, said ag lender CoBank in a note. The firm points to weakness in export sales figures reported by the USDA as evidence that the stronger dollar is making U.S. exports less attractive. "The challenge for agriculture and other rural industries that rely heavily on global markets is their export partners simply can't afford to buy U.S. products," said Rob Fox, director of CoBank's Knowledge Exchange, in the note. Tomorrow's WASDE is expected to update expectations surrounding export sales, as well as U.S. grain supplies.

Potent Progress: The harvest of corn and soybeans in the U.S. remains slightly ahead of schedule, according to the latest Crop Progress report from the USDA. The agency pegs the corn harvest at 34% complete, and the soybean harvest at 43% complete. Both figures are ahead of where those harvests were at this time last year, and their average pace over the past four years. Grain futures tend to find their near-term bottoms when harvesting hits the latter half of completion, says Tomm Pfitzenmaier of Summit Commodity Brokerage in a note.

Mitigating Risk: Traders are keeping a mostly hands-off approach towards markets in the wake of fighting between Israel and Hamas and the volatility it brings for key products like crude oil. "The economic and energy consequences of the events in Israel are still uncertain, leaving oil close to the $85 a barrel mark in New York," said AgriTel in a note. Should fuel prices rise, then the cost for operating farms will also climb.


AHEAD


--The EIA will release its weekly ethanol production and stocks report at 10:30 a.m. ET Thursday.

--The USDA will release its monthly world supply and demand forecast at noon ET Thursday.

--The USDA will release its weekly export sales report at 8:30 a.m. ET Friday.

--The CFTC will release its weekly Commitment of Traders report at 3:30 p.m. ET Friday.


Write to Kirk Maltais at kirk.maltais@wsj.com


(END) Dow Jones Newswires

10-11-23 1529ET