By Kirk Maltais


--Soybeans for March delivery fell 0.5%, to $11.87 a bushel, on the Chicago Board of Trade on Tuesday, as the continued outlook of strong production out of South America kept pressure on soybeans, with some pressure hitting other grains early in the day.

--Wheat for March delivery rose 0.2%, to $5.98 1/2 a bushel.

--Corn for March delivery rose 0.2%, to $4.31 1/2 a bushel.


HIGHLIGHTS


Forward March: The balance of production out of South America--where Brazilian crops are expected to be big even with some weather-related reductions, and Argentina's crops are receiving ample rain--is seen as keeping the world well-supplied and prices under pressure. "It remains difficult to see a major fundamental change for the next month-plus, before the trade turns to the March 31 acreage and stocks reports and heads into the spring 2024 U.S. planting season," said Matt Zeller of StoneX in a note. This sentiment carried over to other grains Tuesday morning, but by close corn and wheat finished higher.

Surprise Reading: Commodities across the board wilted after a higher-than-expected January CPI on Tuesday, weighing on grains throughout the day. At 3.1% year-over-year, the reading has traders convinced the data might slow a rate-cut cycle from the Federal Reserve. Making matters worse are the holidays being celebrated in China and Brazil this week, constraining trading volumes.


INSIGHT


Failure to Launch: CBOT grains attempted to mount a buying rally Tuesday morning, but didn't get off the ground by afternoon. Traders still don't see a compelling-enough story to turn the trend around. "Any little rally attempts are being sold," said Brian Hoops of Midwest Market Solutions. "The sharply higher U.S. dollar index is bearish for commodities in general and pressuring values today." Disappointing CPI data, the upcoming USDA Agricultural Outlook Forum, and South American weather are all other factors weighing on futures.

Chop It Up: Grain trading is tentative ahead of the USDA's Agricultural Forum, which begins on Thursday. Holidays in China and Brazil will keep volumes low which could enhance volatility. Traders expect the data being issued at the forum will reinforce sentiment around a loose market. "The USDA has already forecasted a significant decline in U.S. 2024 net farm income which is telegraphing larger stocks and lower grain prices forecasted," Daniel Flynn of Price Futures Group said in a note.


AHEAD


--The EIA will release its weekly ethanol production and stocks report at 10:30 a.m. ET on Wednesday.

--Deere & Co. will release its first quarter 2024 earnings report before the stock market opens Thursday.

--The USDA will hold the first day of its Annual Agricultural Outlook Forum in Arlington, Va., beginning at 8 a.m. ET on Thursday.

--The USDA will release its weekly export sales report at 8:30 a.m. ET on Thursday.


Write to Kirk Maltais at kirk.maltais@wsj.com


(END) Dow Jones Newswires

02-13-24 1524ET