Focus Turns to June Jobs Report

Focus Turns to June Jobs Report By Hardika Singh

Minutes of the Federal Reserve's last meeting showed officials were broadly comfortable with their wait-and-see stance on changing interest rates and highlighted a range of views about what might prompt the central bank to raise or lower rates, with some officials seemingly on alert for signs of labor market deterioration. Focus will now turn to this morning's nonfarm payrolls report, which is due at 8:30 a.m. ET. And a series of Supreme Court rulings promises to dramatically reshape how regulation is created and upheld in the U.S. Read on for this news and more.

Top News Fed Officials Signaled No Hurry to Cut Rates

With elevated inflation preventing Fed officials from feeling confident enough to cut interest rates, some policymakers at their meeting last month called for careful attention to signs the labor market might weaken faster than anticipated.

"A number of participants remarked that monetary policy should stand ready to respond to unexpected economic weakness," said the minutes of the Fed's June 11-12 meeting, which were released Wednesday with a customary three-week delay.

Pro Take: Inflation Stirs in Latin America After Months of Declines

Latin America's central banks have waged a largely successful fight to slow pandemic-fueled price increases for months, but now inflationary pressures are looming on several fronts.

Weaker currencies in the region aren't helping the inflation outlook , nor is continuing strength in labor markets. In some countries, inflation has already begun to pick up after months of declines, and central banks have signaled a wariness to push ahead with more interest-rate cuts.

U.S. Economy Jobs Report Today: What to Know

The next big look at the U.S. economy lands this morning, when the monthly jobs report is released at 8:30 a.m. ET . Traders have parsed hiring, inflation and spending data for clues on whether the economy is cooling enough for the Federal Reserve to start cutting rates soon.

Last month's jobs report showed a surprising hiring surge in May, with average hourly earnings also topping forecasts. Economists expect 200,000 jobs were added in June, down from 272,000 last month, and forecast the unemployment rate held steady at 4%, which remains historically low.

Financial Regulation Supreme Court's Agency Power Rulings Could Change Regulatory Landscape For Years to Come

A spate of Supreme Court rulings over the past week promises to dramatically reshape how regulation is created and upheld in the U.S., starting with proposed rules by the Biden administration to rein in businesses on noncompete clauses and bring transparency to how companies navigate the risks of climate change.

Forward Guidance Monday (all times ET)

10 a.m.: Employment Trends Index

3 p.m.: Consumer credit

Tuesday

6 a.m.: NFIB Index of Small Business Optimism

10 a.m.: Fed Chair Powell presents Monetary Policy Report to U.S. Senate Banking Committee

Research Bank of Canada Rate Cut Fails to Pull Vancouver Real-Estate Out of Doldrums

Existing-home sales in Vancouver declined in June, another sign that real estate-once a top engine of Canadian economic growth-shows no sign of accelerating despite expectations for further interest-rate cuts. The results could also give Bank of Canada confidence that another rate cut in July won't trigger a big rally in house prices. Sales activity in the Vancouver area fell 11.5% in June from the prior month, and nearly 20% below year-ago figures. Greater Vancouver Realtors, the local board, said June's sales were nearly 25% below the 10-year seasonal average. Inventories, though, are climbingTotal properties listed in June are 42% higher than the same year-ago month. Benchmark, or adjusted, home prices in metropolitan Vancouver fell 0.4% in June from a year ago, to C$1.14 million. - Paul Vieira

Basis Points U.S. tourists are flooding foreign locales from Japanese temples to Hungarian thermal baths at an opportune moment: the American dollar is soaring . An economy that is outrunning many peers is pulling investment stateside, driving the value of the dollar near its highest levels of the year. The U.S. currency has gained 15% against the yen and 2.3% against the euro since the end of 2023. - David Uberti Many Americans are hitting their breaking point on what they are willing to spend on a new car, as higher interest rates take a bite out of what they can afford. The average out-the-door price for a new vehicle is on track to drop in 2024 for the first time in more than a decade with dealerships restocking their lots and monthly payments rising because of increased financing rates. - Ben Glickman Milking cows has been a tough business in the past decade, with volatile prices, costs rising and workers hard to find. Now America's dairy farmers face a new problem: bird flu. Avian influenza, which can curb cows' milk production and upend dairy farms' operations, is the latest curveball for an industry that has grappled with low profit margins, drought and shifting consumer tastes. - Victor Stefanescu The U.S. economy grew a drab 1.4% in the first three months of the year - and it looks like a shabby performance is in store for the second quarter [https://www.marketwatch.com/story/gdp-malaise-why-u-s-second-quarter-growth-will-be-weak-again-90c2c211#::text=If%20these%20forecasts%20are%20on, deficit%20and%20lackluster%20business%20investment.]. After starting out with a 3.9% estimate, the Atlanta Federal Reserve's forecast tool predicts gross domestic product only grew at an annual 1.5% pace in the second quarter. The period covers April to June. - MarketWatch Presidential debates are mostly about style, not substance; the intended audience isn't economists, but wavering voters. Last week's debate was a case in point: President Biden's disastrous performance led to calls for him to drop out of the race, recasting the election campaign. But substance still matters, and the debate left wavering voters without a clear case for either party on the economy . - Greg Ip As Donald Trump gets closer to announcing his pick for running mate, the presumptive Republican presidential nominee's decision on his No. 2 could end up having an impact on industries . For example, one running-mate candidate-North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum, whose state is a major oil and gas producer-could help Trump implement the fossil-fuel policies that the former president has long espoused. - MarketWatch Britain's Labour Party won a landslide election victory as voters handed its leader Keir Starmer one of the biggest parliamentary majorities in British history, placing a center-left government into Downing Street for the first time in 14 years. With just two districts still outstanding, Labour had won 412 of the 650 seats in Parliament. - Max Colchester and David Luhnow German industrial production slumped in May as car manufacturing tailed off, after an uptick in the sector at the start of this year faded away. Industrial output fell 2.5% on month in May , on a seasonally and calendar-adjusted basis, much weaker than the 0.1% rise in April, German statistics agency Destatis said. Economists expected a much smaller 0.2% decline, according to a WSJ poll. - Ed Frankl China's central bank has signed agreements with major brokers to borrow "hundreds of billions" of yuan worth of government bonds, a move analysts say is likely aimed at stabilizing plummeting long-term bond yields . The People's Bank of China has started to borrow medium and long-term notes from lenders, state media said Friday, now holds "hundreds of billions" of yuan worth of bonds. - Jiahui Huang China is taking tentative new steps to help disrupt the global supply chain fueling the opioid crisis after intensifying criticism from the U.S. that its chemical factories are partly responsible for the deadly scourge. - Brian Spegele The outlook for India's stock market performance in the coming decade is bright, buoyed by optimism about the country's economic prospects after last month's general election results, according to analysts. - Miriam Mukuru Tanzania's central bank held its key lending rate at 6%, citing receding inflation and a recovering economy. Bank of Tanzania Governor Emmanuel Tutuba said in a statement that inflation was 3.1% at the end of May, below the target of 5%. - Nicholas Bariyo Elections are getting trickier for investors. Once all you had to think about was who would win, a hard enough job when polls are unreliable. Now you need to decide whether there will be a surprise landslide -and if there is, whether that will be good or bad for markets. - James Mackintosh Two of Sam Bankman-Fried's former lieutenants face the prospect of prison time over their role in his campaign-spending operation. But other insiders from the FTX chief executive's orbit were closely involved with his political-donation binge, including members of his family, according to previously unreported emails seen by The Wall Street Journal. - Alexander Osipovich Marko Kolanovic found himself in the loneliest place on Wall Street. On Wednesday, the man dubbed "Gandalf" and "Half-Man, Half-God" by the financial press over the years for his prowess at predicting market moves, was out of a job at JPMorgan . - Jack Pitcher Executive Insights

Here is our weekly roundup of stories from across WSJ Pro that we think you'll find useful.

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07-05-24 0715ET