U.S. Crude-Oil Stockpiles Likely Rose in DOE Data, Analysts Say

By Dan Molinski

U.S. commercial crude-oil stockpiles are expected to have increased from the previous week in data due Thursday from the Energy Department, according to a survey of analysts and traders by The Wall Street Journal.

Estimates from 11 analysts and traders showed U.S. oil inventories are projected to have increased by 1 million barrels for the week ended Oct. 7, with three analysts forecasting a decline and the other eight predicting an increase. Forecasts range from a decrease of 2.8 million barrels to an increase of 4.5 million barrels.

Analysts said the expected increase is due in large part to another sizable transfer of crude from the nation's Strategic Petroleum Reserve to the commercial side, as part of a year-long effort by the U.S. government to boost supplies and reduce gasoline prices at the pump.

The closely watched survey from the DOE's Energy Information Administration is scheduled for release at 11 a.m. ET Thursday, a day later than normal due to Monday's holiday.

Gasoline stockpiles are expected to decrease by 1.2 million barrels from the previous week, according to analysts. Estimates range from a decrease of 4 million barrels to an increase of 2.3 million barrels.

Stocks of distillates, which include heating oil and diesel, are expected to fall by 1.7 million barrels from the previous week. Forecasts range from a decrease of 3 million barrels to an increase of 1 million barrels.

Refinery use likely declined by 0.3 percentage point from the previous week to 91.0%. Forecasts range from a 1 percentage-point decrease to a 1.2 percentage-point increase. Two analysts didn't make a forecast.

 
                                                                 Refinery 
                                   Crude  Gasoline  Distillates   Use 
Again Capital                       -1.1       2.3          0.9       0.8 
Citi Futures                         2.5      -2.5         -2.5      -0.5 
Commodity Research Group               1        -1            1       1.2 
Confluence Investment Management     2.5        -2         -2.5        -1 
DTN                                  1.1      -1.8         -1.2      -0.5 
Excel Futures                       -2.8        -3         -2.7       0.7 
Spartan Capital Securities             1      -0.1           -3       n/f 
Mizuho                                 1        -2           -1        -1 
Price Futures Group                  4.5        -1           -2        -1 
Ritterbusch and Associates           2.7       1.5         -3.0      -1.0 
Tradition Energy                    -1.5        -4         -2.5       n/f 
 
AVERAGE                              1.0      -1.2         -1.7      -0.3 
 

n/f = no forecast

unch = unchanged

Note: Numbers in millions of barrels, with the exception of refinery use, which is in percentage points.

Write to Dan Molinski at [e-mail]

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

10-12-22 1211ET