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By Dan Molinski
U.S. commercial crude-oil stockpiles are expected to have declined from the previous week in data due Thursday from the Energy Department, according to a survey by The Wall Street Journal.
Estimates from 10 analysts and traders showed U.S. oil inventories are projected to have declined by 1.1 million barrels for the week ended Jan. 13, with seven analysts forecasting a decline and three predicting an increase. Forecasts range from a decrease of 4 million barrels to an increase of 4.5 million barrels.
Analysts said the likely decrease would be partly because the U.S. government didn't transfer any crude last week from the nation's Strategic Petroleum Reserve to the commercial side. The SPR sales by the government took place throughout 2022 to help reduce gasoline prices, but have now stopped at least temporarily as reserves are at a nearly 40-year low.
The closely watched survey from the DOE's Energy Information Administration is scheduled for release at 11 a.m. EST Thursday, a day later than normal because of Monday's Martin Luther King Jr. holiday.
Gasoline stockpiles are expected to increase by 1.7 million barrels from the previous week, according to analysts. Estimates range from a decline of 2 million barrels to an increase of 4.6 million barrels.
Stocks of distillates, which is mostly diesel fuel, are expected to fall by 400,000 barrels from the previous week. Forecasts range from a decrease of 3 million barrels to an increase of 2.3 million barrels.
Refinery use likely increased by 3 percentage points from the previous week to 87.1% as plants continued to claw back toward normal activity levels following cold weather-forced shutdowns in late December. Forecasts range from a 1.1 percentage-point decrease to a 5.2 percentage-point increase. One analyst didn't make a forecast.
The American Petroleum Institute, an industry group, said late Wednesday that its data for the week showed a 7.6 million-barrel increase in crude supplies, a 2.8 million-barrel rise in gasoline stocks and a 1.8 million-barrel decrease in diesel inventories, according to a source.
Refinery
Crude Gasoline Distillates Use
Again Capital -3.6 2.4 1.3 5.2
Citi Futures 4.5 3.5 1.5 4
Commodity Research Group -3.5 1.9 -0.2 5
Confluence Investment Management -3 3 2 3.5
DTN 2.5 2.1 -1.2 2.8
Excel Futures 3.8 4.6 -2 -1.1
Spartan Capital Securities -1.4 -0.2 -2.9 n/f
Mizuho -4 -1 -2 2
Price Futures Group -3 -2 -3 1
Ritterbusch and Associates -3.5 2.3 2.3 5.0
AVERAGE -1.1 1.7 -0.4 3.0
n/f = no forecast
unch = unchanged
Note: Numbers in millions of barrels, with the exception of refinery use, which is in percentage points.
Write to Dan Molinski at dan.molinski@wsj.com
(END) Dow Jones Newswires
01-18-23 1719ET
