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| This week's gainers and losers |
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| Commodities |
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Volatility remains at high levels on oil markets, which remain particularly sensitive to developments related to the war in Ukraine. Comments from Vladimir Putin, who sees progress in talks with the Ukrainian government and is reportedly willing to compromise on neutrality, have caused prices to ease as the two global benchmarks, Brent and WTI, are trading lower at USD 110 and USD 107 respectively. On the other hand, the mood is deteriorating regarding the Iranian nuclear deal. While the negotiations seemed to be on the verge of success until a few days ago, the talks have now been suspended. It was a week of excess for the metals segment, and more particularly for nickel, whose price jumped to USD 100,000 per ton, its biggest gain in a single day. Prices were boosted by a race to cover short positions after Western sanctions threatened supply from the main producer, Russia. Copper, on the other hand, lost ground at $1,040. In precious metals, gold broke through the USD 2,000 per ounce mark, but failed to hold above that level. Investors did indeed regain their risk appetite at the end of the week, to the detriment of the barbarian relic, which is trading, at the time of writing, around USD 1980. Prices also eased in Chicago, with wheat (1070 cents per bushel) and corn (753 cents) down over the past five days. The USDA was rather optimistic about world wheat production for 2021/2022, as the institution raised its forecast from 776.4 to 778.5 million tons. However, not surprisingly, the USDA revised its world export estimate downward (from 206.7 to 203.1 million tons) due to lower Ukrainian and Russian exports. |
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| Macroeconomics |
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The week was marked by the European Central Bank meeting. Alongside a status quo on key rates, the institution showed concern about the acceleration of inflation. It brought forward to June the start of the reduction of its asset purchases, while leaving open the possibility of a rate hike this year, a possibility that was not even considered a few weeks ago. The other macroeconomic event was the release of inflation data in the United States in February, which remained high. This will support a first rate hike by the Fed next week, of up to a quarter point. The yield on 10-year US debt rose to 2.01% today, as inflation remains the major concern of central banks, which see the conflict in Ukraine as an aggravating factor. This war on Europe's doorstep has tightened yields on the old continent: the 10-year German Bund is up to 0.31% and the French OAT to 0.77%. On the foreign exchange market, the dollar rose to JPY 449.93. After benefiting from the rush to safety, the greenback fell back slightly against the euro in the middle of the week, before recovering to USD 1.0944 for 1 euro. With the geopolitical environment still very tense, the cryptocurrency market has suffered from significant volatility in recent days. In the space of a week, bitcoin has experienced 10% swings, up and down. The price of bitcoin is once again hovering around the $39,000 mark at the time of writing. Investors' appetite for risk assets may yet be put on hold until the situation calms down on the international political-economic scene. Next week's session on Wednesday, March 16, has long been on investors' minds: barring any major surprises, the Fed will launch a new round of monetary policy tightening. |
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| Things to read this week | ||||
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*The weekly movements of indexes and stocks displayed on the dashboard are related to the period ranging from the open on Monday to the sending time of this newsletter on Friday. The weekly movements of commodities, precious metals and currencies displayed on the dashboard are related to a 7-day rolling period from Friday to Friday, until the sending time of this newsletter. These assets continue to quote on weekends. |
