In the absence of crisp macroeconomic statistics, market participants had to make do with little, such as housing starts, which were down sharply by -8.8%. Or the Philadelphia Fed's manufacturing index, which deteriorated sharply from -23.2 in March to -31.3 in April. It is this statistic that has put a serious brake on the rebound initiated since the beginning of the month.

According to a study by Bank of America, the main concern of asset managers is now the risk of a credit crunch and a possible recession, particularly as a result of the crisis in regional American banks. The continuation of a restrictive monetary policy ("hawkish") to curb inflation comes only in second place. As a logical consequence, the share of bonds in asset allocations has now reached 9%, the highest level ever recorded since 2009.

The path is particularly narrow. On one hand, macroeconomic indicators argue in favor of a recession, which would tend to push bond yields lower due to the classic "flight to quality." On the other hand, the US Federal Reserve is not done with its fight against inflation: a continuation of the monetary tightening cycle is expected at the next committee meeting scheduled for May 3, during which investors expect a further 25 basis point increase. These opposing forces explain the current status quo observed on government bonds, with a 10-year US bond hovering above 3.35/30% but unable to break through 3.60/70%.

It is important to understand that if the "guidance" provided by the heavyweights of the stock market were to tip the balance in favor of a contraction in activity, the Fed's stance would no longer matter. All eyes will turn to the forecasts of financial analysts to try to anticipate the duration and intensity of the recession. As for the bond market, it will fall well before the Fed pivots. Such is the case in the wonderful world of finance. The stars of one day will be burned the next, following a simple blink of an eye.