The bank forecasts a period of disinflation, indicating that central banks in developed markets have probably completed their rate hike cycles. Although rate cuts are not immediate, Lazard suggests that policy easing is likely to be the next step in this cycle.

As economies adjust to higher interest rates, growth should normalize. However, the bank warns that the operating environment will not return to a situation of zero rates and persistent inflation. Companies and investors will probably have to adapt to a new environment where fundamental analysis will regain importance after years of negative real interest rates that favored macroeconomic assumptions to the detriment of company-specific factors.

The US should avoid a recession, with the Federal Reserve forecasting a "soft landing". Despite persistent problems in the housing market, sentiment in China should improve. However, the Eurozone and the UK are on the brink of recession, with stagnant inflation preventing any easing.

Japan is expected to abandon yield curve control and negative interest rates, while geopolitical tensions, particularly the war in Ukraine and Western tensions with China, are set to intensify.

In the United States, the economy held up better than expected in 2023, as consumers used up much of the excess savings of over $2.25 trillion accumulated during the pandemic. However, the outlook for 2024 is more mixed, with global growth projections limited by rising interest rates, shrinking fiscal space and fragmented trade.

In China, the housing crisis has led to weak growth in 2023. However, the various stimulus measures announced by the government should improve the outlook in 2024.

The Eurozone experienced stagflation in 2023, but the situation should improve in 2024 as disinflation progresses. However, a recession seems likely, with data pointing to a 0.1% contraction in the eurozone economy.

To find out more, Lazard's report on their macroeconomic forecasts for 2024 is available here : Global Outlook 2024