Currencies: Waiting for the Fed...

Despite the continued restrictive monetary policy of the European Central Bank, which as expected raised its main policy rate by 50 basis points on March 16 to 3.50%, the euro is struggling to maintain the upward momentum it started last October. It seems that traders believe that at current rates, the rate differential no longer militates for a catch-up effect against the dollar. Especially since the Fed will meet on Wednesday to give its vision of things.

The status quo observed on the EURUSD currency is taking the effect of a horizontal consolidation channel in progress since the beginning of March, whose limits are between 1.0520 and 1.0734. We will watch carefully the support which also corresponds to the neckline of a potential reversal pattern called "head and shoulders" whose downside potential would be 1.0245/58. For the more optimistic, you will have to wait for the breakout of 1.0734 to hope to see again the amounts of early February at 1.1012 or even 1.1250.

EUR/USD 2023

By mimicry, the dollar index (DXY) remains stuck below 105.70 with a first support at 103.45 which it would be happy to preserve to avoid retesting the February lows at 100.Commodity currencies remain under overall bearish pressure despite last week's rebound. We will be watching the first resistances at 0.6740/68 on the Aussie and 0.6303/40 on the Kiwi to reinforce short positions.

The British pound should also be in the spotlight as the BoE is expected to meet this Thursday. Against the dollar, it is hovering inside an open triangle of 1.1827 and 1.2419 while against the euro, it is close to the line that joins the highs since 2022, resistance around 1.1438.On the scandi side, the USDSEK has finally stumbled on the upper bound of its horizontal channel at 10.65/75 with 10.34 or even 10.16 in sight. Finally, the USDNOK offered itself a small respite below 10.75 with initial support at 10.44 to maintain its bullish strength towards 10.88/11.00.