Morningstar Director of Economic Analysis Bob Johnson says consumer spending is the key economic factor for the U.S. and, it is on the up.

SHOWS: NEW YORK, USA (JANUARY 2, 2015) (REUTERS - ACCESS ALL)

1. MORNINGSTAR, DIRECTOR OF ECONOMIC ANALYSIS, BOB JOHNSON , SAYING:

JOURNALIST ASKING BOB JOHNSON : 'Alright your GDP forecast for 2015 is 2 percent to 2.5 percent. You have been keeping that steady with all this stuff going on. A lot of U.S. data is looking stronger heading into 2015 so talk to me about how you get to that number?'

JOHNSON: 'Sure, absolutely, you know we have been at this 2 to 2.5 percent rate for the last three to four years and I think we will probably see the same next year in that range and I think we will probably do in the high end, probably more like the 2.5 than the 2 end of the range. But the people that are getting excited and say 'oh gee, we saw this 5 percent number' well, keep in mind that was for the September quarter, that is kind of behind us. I think the best case now for the fourth quarter will probably grow 2.5 to 3 percent. So I think, you know, we were bouncing back from the bad weather and we had a perfect storm of good events. You know, government kicked in some money; we had a net export situation that helped the GDP and that isn't going to happen again in the fourth quarter. So I think we will back off pretty clearly in the fourth quarter and then for next year I think the consensus is for 2.5 to 3 percent, I think we will do just a little bit less than that. I think housing will be a little bit slow to come back. I think maybe by the end of the year maybe higher rates will hold us back to just a little bit. Certainly the strong dollar will probably affect exports a little bit. But, on the other hand, the part that I always like to talk about, the consumer which is 70 percent of the economy is likely to do quite well with the falling gasoline prices and relatively flat inflation.'

JOURNALIST: 'Yeah, I'm glad you mentioned the consumer. In your annual note that you put out you say that while the world is fretting about oil and the Fed all eyes should really be on the consumer and demographics. Tell me more about that?'

JOHNSON: 'Yeah, absolutely, you know so many people talk about 'oh, look what's happening in Europe or what is happening in China; it is going to make things awful'. And you know what, that kept us positive through most of 2014 and a lot of people were a little bit more worried especially in the weather affected months. But you know Europe is probably about 3 percent of our GDP in terms of exports, China depending on exactly how you measure it between 1 and 2 percent. So they really don't move the needle, in fact, as things get weaker in those economies it generally means commodity prices come down which is actually more helpful for the U.S. consumer. The U.S. economy is also somewhat unique in getting 70 percent of their GDP from consumers. In other economies such as China or even Germany it would be far less. But in the U.S. it is pretty easy to track what is going on with the consumer and that is what really drives things and even the business investment spending is driven by the consumer. Businesses won't invest, won't put more money in the inventories, and won't hire more people unless the consumer is spending more. So that is why I really like to watch what is going on there and the news there on the consumer has been getting better, they have been spending more, the consumption number has been up and has actually been revised up lately and so that has been good news for the economy.'