Confidence among manufacturers improves further

The long-term average over the past two decades is 0.2. Producer confidence reached an all-time high (10.9) in February 2018 and an all-time low (-28.7) in April 2020. Pessimism has prevailed among Dutch manufacturers since April 2020.

2017	februari	7
2017	maart	7.8
2017	april	8.3
2017	mei	6.1
2017	juni	7.2
2017	juli	6.6
2017	augustus	5.4
2017	september	8.5
2017	oktober	8.2
2017	november	9.1
2017	december	8.9
2018	januari	10.3
2018	februari	10.9
2018	maart	9.5
2018	april	8.2
2018	mei	9.8
2018	juni	7.7
2018	juli	6.3
2018	augustus	5.9
2018	september	5.7
2018	oktober	5.9
2018	november	7.2
2018	december	7.5
2019	januari	5.8
2019	februari	6.3
2019	maart	6.1
2019	april	6.7
2019	mei	4.7
2019	juni	3.3
2019	juli	3.9
2019	augustus	3.9
2019	september	3.3
2019	oktober	3.6
2019	november	2.8
2019	december	2.9
2020	januari	2.5
2020	februari	3.7
2020	maart	0.2
2020	april	-28.7
2020	mei	-25.1
2020	juni	-15.1
2020	juli	-8.7
2020	augustus	-5.4
2020	september	-4.8
2020	oktober	-5.6
2020	november	-3.8
2020	december	-0.4
2021	januari	0.6

Manufacturers less negative about their order position, more positive about future output

In January, opinions of manufacturers about their order position are less negative for the eighth consecutive month. They are also more positive about future output. Their opinions about stocks of finished products remain the same.

Manufacturers' opinions on two component indicators are positive. Manufacturers who anticipate output to increase over the next three months outnumber those expecting output to decrease. There are fewer manufacturers who define their current stocks of finished products as too large rather than too small.

The other component indicator is negative. More manufacturers consider their order position to be weak rather than strong, given the time of year.

Improved confidence only in the electrotechnical and machinery industry and in the metal industry

Entrepreneurial confidence has increased in the electrotechnical products and machinery industry and in the metal industry, while it has declined in the other sectors. The most positive are producers of timber and building materials. The most negative opinions are found among entrepreneurs in the food industry.

Timber and building materials	9.1	11.2
Electrotechnical products and machinery	5.8	-2.5
Petroleum	3.4	4.5
Metal	2.7	-1.3
Transport equipment	2.5	7
Textiles, clothes, leather	1.7	8.1
Paper and printing	-2.1	3.7
Food, beverages, tobacco	-5	-2.8

Capacity utilisation rate higher

The industrial capacity utilisation rate stood at 80.0 percent at the start of Q1 2021. This was higher than the 79.2-percent rate at the start of Q4, but lower than the 82.7-percent rate in Q1 2020.

2017	Quarter 2	82.8
2017	Quarter 3	83.4
2017	Quarter 4	83.3
2018	Quarter 1	83.5
2018	Quarter 2	83.6
2018	Quarter 3	84.5
2018	Quarter 4	84.1
2019	Quarter 1	83.9
2019	Quarter 2	84.3
2019	Quarter 3	84.3
2019	Quarter 4	84
2020	Quarter 1	82.7
2020	Quarter 2	74.2
2020	Quarter 3	76.9
2020	Quarter 4	79.2
2021	Quarter 1	80

Manufacturing output 2.5 percent down in November

In November 2020, the average daily output generated by the Dutch manufacturing industry was 2.5 percent down on November 2019. This is the smallest contraction after March 2020, when output was almost 2 percent lower than one year previously.

German manufacturers less positive in January

Germany is an important foreign market for the Dutch manufacturing industry. After rising for eight consecutive months, German producer confidence is down in January according to the Business Climate Index of the IFO Institute. This is due to notably less optimistic future output expectations among manufacturing companies. However, opinions on the current situation have improved. Capacity utilisation rose from 80.2 percent to 81.8 percent. In November, the average daily output generated by the German industry contracted by almost 4 percent year-on-year, as reported by Destatis.