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In the news:
- The second quarter comes in at 0.2 percent growth from a quarter earlier. That is half as low as the earlier June estimate and also half as slow as in the first quarter (0.4 percent each time).
- That pace would continue into the current third quarter: the NBB's econometric models again indicate 0.2 percent, although under optimistic assumptions, growth of up to 0.5 percent would also be within reach.
More details:
- The demand side of the economy is currently doing relatively well: households are spending, business investment is holding up, and since next year is an election year, we can expect a boost in local government investment in the coming months. Only international trade (net exports) disappoints.
- Compared to the third quarter of 2022, growth comes in at 0.9 percent.
Conclusion: "A contraction of the economy in the third quarter seems unlikely at this time,"
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