Spirit Guidance and Capital Deployment Update
JANUARY 10, 2022
2022 GUIDANCE UPDATE
We originally provided 2022 AFFO per share guidance at our 2019 Investor Day. Our tenants,
2022 AFFO per share of $3.52 to $3.58 and capital deployment of
$1.3 billion to $1.5 billion
portfolio and acquisitions platform performed throughout the COVID-19 pandemic, enabling us to raise the midpoint of our projected 2022 AFFO per share guidance range by 3.8%
Key Highlights:
Invested $2.1 billion in real estate assets over the past two years
Minimal tenant defaults due to the pandemic representing 1% of ABR
Maintained occupancy above 99% throughout the pandemic
Reduced Lost Rent and Unreimbursed Property Costs to 0.1% and 1.4%1, respectively, below Investor Day assumptions
2019 Investor Day Outlook2
December 5, 2019
6.1% CAGR
4.0% CAGR
$3.52
$3.32
$2.95
2019 Adjusted | 2022 AFFO | 2022 AFFO |
AFFO Per Share | Per Share (Low) | Per Share (High) |
Capital Deployment3
$700M - $900M
Implied Quarterly Capital Deployment
$175M - $225M
Implied Quarterly AFFO Per Share
$0.83 - $0.88 per share
2022 Guidance
6.7% CAGR
6.1% CAGR
$3.52 | $3.58 | |
$2.95 | ||
2019 Adjusted | 2022 AFFO | 2022 AFFO |
AFFO Per Share² | Per Share (Low) | Per Share (High) |
Capital Deployment
$1,300M - $1,500M
Implied Quarterly Capital Deployment
$325M - $375M
Implied Quarterly AFFO Per Share
$0.88 - $0.90 per share
1As of Q3 2021. | |
2As presented on slide 136 of Spirit's 2019 Investor Day presentation. | 2 |
32020 outlook as presented on slide 135 of Spirit's 2019 Investor Day presentation. |
STRONG GROWTH AT A REASONABLE PRICE
Spirit's Projections vs Net Lease Peers' Estimates
2022 AFFO Per Share Growth
14.2% | |||
10.1% | 1 | ||
9.4% | 9.2% | ||
8.0% | |||
6.6% | 6.0% | ||
3.8% | |||
1.4% |
AFFO CAGR from 2019 to 2022
9.3% | |
7.6% | |
6.4%2 | |
5.7% | 5.5% |
3.3% | |
2.6% | |
0.9% | |
N/A3 |
2022 Total Return | 2022 AFFO Per Share Multiple | ||||||||||||||
17.7% | Dividend Yield | ||||||||||||||
3.5% | 14.7% | 14.2% | 13.7% | 2022 AFFO Per Share Growth | 19.1x | 18.5x | 18.3x | 17.6x | 17.4x | ||||||
4.1% | 11.8% | 10.9% | 10.5% | 15.7x | 15.7x | 15.4x | |||||||||
5.3% | 4.5% | 3.8% | 9.0% | 13.4x | |||||||||||
4.3% | |||||||||||||||
4.5% | 5.8% | ||||||||||||||
14.2% | |||||||||||||||
5.2% | |||||||||||||||
9.4%1 | 10.1% | ||||||||||||||
9.2% | 8.0% | 6.6% | 4.4% | ||||||||||||
6.0% | |||||||||||||||
3.8% | |||||||||||||||
1.4% | |||||||||||||||
WPC | SRC | ||||||||||||||
Dividend Payout Ratio4 | |||||||||||||||
69.9% | 71.9% | 76.0% | 71.6% | 72.4% | 76.5% | 81.0% | 82.2% | 68.7% |
Note: Dividend yield and AFFO per share multiples based on data as of January 5, 2022. 2021 and 2022 AFFO per share is based on Factset consensus estimates for peers and midpoint | ||||
of guidance for Spirit. Our peers may not calculate AFFO as we do, and, accordingly, our AFFO may not be directly comparable to such peers' AFFO. | ||||
1Year-over-year growth based on midpoint of preliminary 2021 AFFO per share range of $3.24 to $3.25, excluding $0.06 of out of period earnings. | ||||
22019 to 2022 CAGR for Spirit based on 2019 adjusted AFFO per share as presented on slide 136 of Spirit's 2019 Investor Day presentation. | 3 | |||
3Initial public offering completed in third quarter of 2020. | ||||
4Calculated using the most recent dividend announcement annualized over 2022 Factset consensus estimates for peers and midpoint of guidance for Spirit. | ||||
CAPITAL DEPLOYMENT PERFORMANCE
Spirit has acquired approximately 27% of its total Real Estate Investments1 since 2020
Retail | |||||
Industrial | |||||
Activity | |||||
Other | |||||
Investment | |||||
Office | |||||
Revenue | Gross | ||||
Producing CapEx | |||||
-$50,000 |
Trailing 8-Quarter Totals | |||||
Gross Investment | $2,135.4M | Industrial | 46.5% | ||
Retail | 38.6% | ||||
Quarterly Avg. Gross Investment | $266.9M | ||||
Other | 10.8% | ||||
Wtd. Avg. Investment Cash Yield | 6.88% | ||||
Office | 2.4% | ||||
Wtd. Avg. Economic Yield on Acquisitions | 7.73% | ||||
Revenue Producing CapEx | 1.7% | ||||
$436.3M | $487.9M | ||||||||
4.9% | |||||||||
0.3% | |||||||||
$283.7M | $294.2M | 38.5% | |||||||
$215.3M | 56.3% | 0.8% | |||||||
$213.4M | $191.5M | 15.0% | |||||||
3.5% | 0.5% | ||||||||
3.8% | 41.4% | 78.6% | |||||||
50.3% | 66.7% | 56.6% | |||||||
71.8% | 43.4% | ||||||||
$13.0M | 58.1% | ||||||||
20.9% | 49.7% | 18.3% | 6.3% | ||||||
100.0% | 14.3% | ||||||||
Q1 2020 | Q2 2020 | Q3 2020 | Q4 2020 | Q1 2021 | Q2 2021 | Q3 2021 | Q4 2021 |
Acquisitions ($ in 000s) | ||||||||
Number of Transactions | 8 | 1 | 8 | 15 | 9 | 11 | 10 | 28 |
Number of Properties | 27 | 2 | 18 | 99 | 25 | 18 | 31 | 92 |
Gross Investment | $205,863 | $13,016 | $214,313 | $434,959 | $191,508 | $283,676 | $291,788 | $463,871 |
Purchase Price Per Property | $7,380 | $6,500 | $11,851 | $4,377 | $7,622 | $15,670 | $9,373 | $5,017 |
Initial Cash Yield | 6.69% | 7.52% | 7.06% | 6.70% | 7.57% | 7.07% | 7.27% | 6.27% |
Economic Yield | 7.41% | 8.35% | 7.69% | 7.45% | 8.44% | 7.84% | 8.62% | 7.22% |
Weighted Avg. Lease Term (Years) | 14.7 | 15.1 | 14.8 | 15.2 | 17.7 | 13.0 | 18.4 | 15.2 |
Average Annual Escalators | 1.9% | 1.5% | 1.2% | 1.5% | 1.5% | 1.8% | 1.9% | 1.8% |
Revenue Producing CapEx ($ in 000s) | ||||||||
Gross Investment | $7,579 | - | $1,018 | $1,373 | - | - | $2,412 | $24,019 |
Initial Cash Yield | 7.27% | - | 7.25% | 7.66% | - | - | 7.31% | 8.52% |
Total Gross Investment | $213,442 | $13,016 | $215,331 | $436,332 | $191,508 | $283,676 | $294,200 | $487,890 |
Total Investment Cash Yield | 6.71% | 7.52% | 7.06% | 6.70% | 7.57% | 7.07% | 7.27% | 6.38% |
1Real Estate Investment as of December 31, 2021, excluding fourth quarter impairments. | 4 | |||
2021 ACQUISITION INDUSTRY BREAKDOWN
Q1 2021 | Q2 2021 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Dollar Stores: 3.3% | Entertainment: 0.8% | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Department Stores: 4.9% | Professional Office: 15.0% | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Sporting Goods: 5.8% | Manufacturing: 21.3% | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Car Washes: 1.1% | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Office | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Automotive Service: | Home Improvement: 2.4% | 15.0% | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
7.2% | Industrial | Dollar Stores: 2.5% | Retail | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Retail | Manufacturing: 43.5% | Home Décor: 5.8% | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Warehouse Club | 49.7% | 50.3% | 18.3% | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
and Supercenters: | Industrial | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
10.0% | Dealerships: 6.5% | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Health and Fitness: 17.7% | Distribution: 6.8% | 66.7% | Distribution: 45.4% | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Q3 2021 | Q4 2021 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Manufacturing: 6.4% | Sporting Goods: 2.4% | Other: 1.4% | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
Home Furnishings: 2.7% | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Car Washes: 5.1% | Dollar Stores: 2.9% | Manufacturing: 30.0% | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
Industrial | Automotive Service: 3.0% | Early Education: 5.5% | |||||||||||||||||||||||||
Health and Fitness: 3.0% | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
6.4% | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Retail | Early Education: 2.3% | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Dollar Stores: 1.0% | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
14.4% | Car Washes: 21.2% | Retail | Industrial | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
59.5% | 40.5% | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Other
79.2%
Country Clubs: 79.2%
Distribution: 9.0%
Flex: 1.5%
Automotive Service: 23.4%
Note: Percentages based on Gross Investment of acquisitions. Retail industries reflect the underlying Tenant operations, and Industrial, Office and Other industries represent the underlying | 5 | |||
property use. | ||||
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Spirit Realty Capital Inc. published this content on 10 January 2022 and is solely responsible for the information contained therein. Distributed by Public, unedited and unaltered, on 10 January 2022 11:37:01 UTC.