DEC 13 FOMC: Minutes released on January 3, 2012:

"In the economic forecast prepared for the December FOMC meeting, the staff's projection for the increase in real GDP in the near term was little changed, as the recent data on spending, production, and the labor market were, on balance, in line with the staff's expectations at the time of the previous forecast. However, the medium-term projection for real GDP growth in the December forecast was lower than the one presented in November, primarily reflecting revisions to the staff's view regarding developments in Europe and their implications for the U.S. economy. Nonetheless, the staff continued to project that the pace of economic activity would pick up gradually in 2012 and 2013, supported by accommodative monetary policy, further increases in credit availability, and improvements in consumer and business sentiment. Over the forecast period, the gains in real GDP were anticipated to be sufficient to reduce the slack in product and labor markets only slowly, and the unemployment rate was expected to remain elevated at the end of 2013.

"The staff's projection for inflation was little changed from the forecast prepared for the November FOMC meeting. The upward pressure on consumer prices from the increases in commodity and import prices earlier in the year was expected to continue to subside in the current quarter. With long-run inflation expectations stable and substantial slack in labor and product markets anticipated to persist over the forecast period, the staff continued to project that inflation would be subdued in 2012 and 2013."

NOV 1-2 FOMC: Minutes released on November 22:

"With the recent data on spending, particularly for consumer expenditures and business outlays for capital goods and nonresidential construction, stronger than the staff anticipated at

the time of the September FOMC meeting, the staff's near-term projection for the rate of increase in real GDP was revised up. However, other important near-term indicators of economic activity remained downbeat: Measures of consumer sentiment were still very low, business surveys pointed to continued caution by firms, conditions in the labor market remained weak, and gain s in manufacturing production outside of the motor vehicle-related sectors were sluggish. Moreover, many of the factors that have been restraining the recovery, such as the large overhang of vacant houses, tight credit conditions, and elevated risk premiums, remained in place. Consequently, the staff's outlook for economic activity over the medium term was similar to the projection prepared for the September FOMC meeting. The staff continued to project that real GDP would accelerate gradually in 2012 and 2013, supported by accommodative monetary policy, further improvements in credit conditions, and a pickup in consumer and business sentiment from their current low levels. Over the forecast period, the increase in real GDP was projected to be sufficient t o reduce the slack in product and labor markets only slowly, and the unemployment rate was expected to remain elevated at the end of 2013.

"The staff's forecast for inflation was essentially unchanged from the projection prepared for the September FOMC meeting. The upward pressure on consumer prices from the rise in commodity and import prices early in the year was anticipated to ease further in the current quarter. With longer-run inflation expectations stable and significant slack anticipated to persist in labor and product markets, the staff continued to expect prices to rise at a subdued pace in 2012 and 2013."

SEPT 20-21 FOMC: Minutes released on October 12:

"In the economic forecast prepared for the September FOMC meeting, the staff lowered its projection for the increase in real GDP in the second half of 2011 and in the medium term. The incoming data on household and business spending were about as expected, on balance, but labor market conditions and indicators of near-term economic activity, such as consumer and business sentiment, were weaker than anticipated. In addition, financial conditions deteriorated since the time of the previous forecast as investors pulled back from riskier assets. Nevertheless, the staff continued to forecast that economic activity would increase more rapidly in the second half of this year than over the first half, as supply chain disruptions in the motor vehicle sector eased. In the medium term, the staff still projected real GDP to accelerate gradually, supported by accommodative monetary policy, further increases in credit availability, and improvements in consumer and business confidence from their current low levels. The increase in real GDP was expected to be sufficient to reduce the unemployment rate only slowly over the projection period, and the jobless rate was anticipated to remain elevated at the end of 2013.

"The staff's projection for inflation was little changed from its forecast at the time of the August FOMC meeting. The upward pressure on consumer price s from increases in import and commodity prices earlier in the year, along with the temporary boost to motor vehicle prices from low inventories, were expected to recede further in the coming quarters. With stable long-run inflation expectations and considerable slack in labor and product markets anticipated to persist over the forecast period, the staff continued to project that inflation would be subdued in 2012 and 2013."

AUG 9 FOMC: Minutes released on August 30:

"The information on economic activity received since the June FOMC meeting was weaker than the staff had anticipated, and the projection for real GDP growth in the second half of 2011 and in 2012 was marked down notably. Moreover, the lower estimates of real GDP in recent years that were contained in the annual revisions to the NIPA led the staff to lower its estimate of potential GDP growth, both during recent years and over the forecast period, and to mark down further the staff forecast. The staff continued to expect some rebound in economic activity in the near term as the Japan-related supply chain disruptions in the motor vehicle sector eased. More generally, the staff still projected real GDP to accelerate gradually over the next year and a half, supported by accommodative monetary policy, improved credit availability, and a pickup in consumer and business sentiment. However, the increase in real GDP was projected to be sufficient to reduce slack in the labor market only slowly, and the unemployment rate was expected to remain elevated at the end of 2012.

"The staff raised slightly its projection for inflation during the second half of this year, as the upward pressure on consumer prices from earlier increases in import and commodity prices was expected to persist a little longer than previously anticipated. But these influences were still expected to dissipate in coming quarter s, as was the temporary upward pressure on motor vehicle prices from low inventories. Moreover, the large increases in consumer energy and food prices seen earlier this year were no t expected to be repeated. With long-run inflation expectations stable and substantial slack expected to persist in labor and product markets, the staff continued to expect prices to rise at a subdued pace in 2012."