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Key Global High Yield Themes - 1H:2022
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Global Growth Uncertainty is Rising, But Buffers Remain
- Growth outlook impacted by cross- currents of rising commodities and geopolitical events
- Key buffers include a strong U.S. consumer and potential fiscal spending in Europe
- We do not view a recession nor stagflation as the most likely outcomes although risk has increased
Inflation to Persist
- U.S. core services inflation continues to accelerate and tends to be stickier
- Acceleration of energy independence and defence spending in Europe bring further inflationary pressures
- Commodity inflation has mixed sector effects
Central Bank Tightening Expectations Have Peaked
- Growth uncertainty allows central banks to look through elevated inflation and adjust rate hiking strategy over the next 12 months
- Interest rate volatility should normalize, supporting spread sectors
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Investment Implications
- Default rates in High Yield expected to remain very low
• Recent stress testing (assuming GDP contraction globally and a spike in oil prices) indicates that most credit impacts are cl ose to neutral
- Mindful of sector and geographical allocations while still pursuing yield opportunities
For illustrativ e and discussion purposes only. Nothing herein constitutes investment, legal, accounting or tax advice, or a recommendation to buy , sell or hold a security. This material is not intended as a formal research report and
should not be relied upon as a basis for making an investment decision. Portfolio Manager's views may differ from that of other portfolio managers as well as the views of the firm. Inv esting entails risks, including possible loss of
principal. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
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High Yield Asset Class Return Scenarios - 12 Month Horizon
High Yield total return scenarios have improved with yields back over 7%
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High Yield1 - Spread to Worst (bps)
1000
900
800Spreads Widen
12M Return Views: -0.44%
700
600Spreads Unchanged
12M Return Views: 7.13%
500
400
300
200
Spreads Tighten
12M Return Views: 11.99%
100
Total Return Scenarios - 12 Month Horizon
Scenario 1: Spreads Widen
Spread Level | 625 bps |
Estimated Spread Change | +187 bps |
12 Month Return Views | -0.44% |
Scenario 2: Spreads Remain Unchanged
Spread Level | 438 bps |
Estimated Spread Change | 0 bps |
12 Month Return Views | 7.13% |
Scenario 3: Spreads Tighten
Spread Level | 318 bps |
Estimated Spread Change | -120 bps |
12 Month Return Views | 11.99% |
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0 | Dec-… | Dec-… | |||||||||||||||
Dec…- | Mar-18 | Jun-18 | Sep…- | Mar-19 | Jun-19 | Sep…- | Dec…- | Mar-20 | Jun-20 | Sep…- | Mar-21 | Jun-21 | Sep…- | Dec…- | Mar-22 |
1As represented by the ICE BofA U.S. High Yield Constrained Index. Data as of May 30, 2022. Neuberger Berman investment v iews are formulated by our specialty fix ed income teams. For a variety of fix ed income sectors, we identify a range of outcomes that either may occur or alternatively be anticipated and then priced into the market. If actual spread to treasury and yield data differs from the assumed data above, there is a risk that the modeled asset class return v iews alike will differ materially from actual asset class return data. Expected Return Forecast May Not Materialize. The expected returns contained herein are being shown to illustrate the inv estment decision-making process and are not intended to prov ide any guarantee or assurance about the future returns of any security, asset class or portfolio. Projections or other forward-looking statements regarding future events, targets or expectations
are only current as of the date indicated. There is no assurance that such events or projections will occur, and may be significantly different than that show n here. The information in this presentation, including statements concerning financial market trends, is based on current market conditions, which will fluctuate and may be superseded by subsequent market events or for other reasons.
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Why Global High Yield Now?
Yield and dollar prices have become attractive relative to recent history
Global High Yield1 - YTW (%) | Global High Yield1 - Price (US $) | |
10.0 | 110 | |
9.0 | 105 | |
8.0 | 7.06 | |
100 | ||
7.0 | ||
95 | ||
6.0 | 91.66 | |
5.0 | 90 | |
4.0 | 85 | |
3.0 | 80 | |
Current Yields are More than Compensating
for Default Outlook
- Default rates in U.S., Europe and other Developed Markets are expected to remain well below average and are currently at all -time lows.
- EM defaults are on the rise, but we are finding attractive select opportunities away from the higher risk regions / sectors.
As of April 30, 2022. 1 Index : ICE BofA Global High Yield Constrained Index
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Credit Fundamentals
Fundamentals continue to be healthy
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Debt/EV Ended Last Year at Multi-Year Lows1
(%) | 70% | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
65% | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
60% | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Debt/EV | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
55% | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
HY | 50% | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
45% | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Median | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
35% | 38.8% | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
40% | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
30% | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
2Q16 | 3Q16 | 4Q16 | 1Q17 | 2Q17 | 3Q17 | 4Q17 | 1Q18 | 2Q18 | 3Q18 | 4Q18 | 1Q19 | 2Q19 | 3Q19 | 4Q19 | 1Q20 | 2Q20 | 3Q20 | 4Q20 | 1Q21 | 2Q21 | 3Q21 | 4Q21 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Interest Coverage Is Still Historically Elevated2
Expense | 6.0x | ||||||||||||||||||
5.0x | 4.8x | ||||||||||||||||||
4.0x | |||||||||||||||||||
/ Interest | |||||||||||||||||||
3.0x | |||||||||||||||||||
2.0x | |||||||||||||||||||
EBITDA | |||||||||||||||||||
1.0x | |||||||||||||||||||
0.0x | |||||||||||||||||||
1Q08 | 4Q08 | 3Q09 | 2Q10 | 1Q11 | 4Q11 | 3Q12 | 2Q13 | 1Q14 | 4Q14 | 3Q15 | 2Q16 | 1Q17 | 4Q17 | 3Q18 | 2Q19 | 1Q20 | 4Q20 | 3Q21 |
High Yield Leverage Is Back to Multi-Year Lows2
6.0x | |||||||||||||||||||
/ EBITDA | 5.0x | ||||||||||||||||||
4.0x | 4.4x | ||||||||||||||||||
Debt | 3.0x | ||||||||||||||||||
2.0x | |||||||||||||||||||
LTM | |||||||||||||||||||
1.0x | |||||||||||||||||||
0.0x | |||||||||||||||||||
1Q08 | 4Q08 | 3Q09 | 2Q10 | 1Q11 | 4Q11 | 3Q12 | 2Q13 | 1Q14 | 4Q14 | 3Q15 | 2Q16 | 1Q17 | 4Q17 | 3Q18 | 2Q19 | 1Q20 | 4Q20 | 3Q21 |
Y/Y EBITDA in the High Yield Market Has Been Positive Since 20212
100% | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
EBITDA | 80% | 56.1% | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
60% | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
40% | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
LQA | 20% | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
0% | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
%y/y | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
-20% | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
-40% | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
-60% | 3Q10 | 2Q11 | 3Q13 | 4Q15 | 1Q18 | 2Q20 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
1Q09 | 4Q09 | 1Q12 | 4Q12 | 2Q14 | 1Q15 | 3Q16 | 2Q17 | 4Q18 | 3Q19 | 1Q21 | 4Q21 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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Data as of December 31, 2021. 1Source: Credit Suisse. 2Source: JP Morgan.
For illustrativ e and discussion purposes only. Nothing herein constitutes investment, legal, accounting or tax advice, or a recommendation to buy , sell or hold a security. This material is not intended as a formal research report and should not be relied upon as a basis for making an investment decision. Portfolio Manager's views may differ from that of other portfolio managers as well as the views of the firm. Historical trends do not imply, forecast or guarantee future results. Information is as of the date indicated and subject to change w ithout notice. Nothing herein constitutes a prediction or projection of future ev ents or future
market behav ior.
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NB Global Corporate Income Trust published this content on 03 June 2022 and is solely responsible for the information contained therein. Distributed by Public, unedited and unaltered, on 03 June 2022 06:11:09 UTC.