Financials Canadian Pacific Kansas City Limited Mexican S.E.

Equities

CPKC N

CA13646K1084

Ground Freight & Logistics

End-of-day quote Mexican S.E. Other stock markets 03:30:00 25/06/2024 am IST			5-day change	1st Jan Change
1,434 ^MXN	+4.80%		+4.80%	+11.13%

27/06	National Bank Says Valuations Looking More Compelling for Canadian Railroads	MT
26/06	RBC Updates Q2 Estimates For Canadian Railways; Reviews Updated Canadian Grain Production Forecast	MT

Valuation

Fiscal Period: December	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026
Capitalization ¹	45,404	59,303	84,573	93,896	97,700	1,00,513	-	-
Enterprise Value (EV) ¹	54,028	68,927	1,04,631	1,13,096	1,19,730	1,20,417	1,19,773	1,20,526
P/E ratio	18.9 x	24.6 x	21.8 x	26.8 x	24.9 x	26.4 x	21.9 x	19.7 x
Yield	0.95%	0.81%	0.84%	0.75%	0.72%	0.71%	0.77%	0.9%
Capitalization / Revenue	5.83 x	7.69 x	10.6 x	10.7 x	7.78 x	6.82 x	6.31 x	5.86 x
EV / Revenue	6.93 x	8.94 x	13.1 x	12.8 x	9.54 x	8.17 x	7.52 x	7.03 x
EV / EBITDA	14.1 x	16.9 x	26 x	26.6 x	18.6 x	16.1 x	14.2 x	12.9 x
EV / FCF	40.2 x	60.9 x	48.5 x	43.8 x	71.7 x	41.5 x	31.2 x	25.9 x
FCF Yield	2.49%	1.64%	2.06%	2.29%	1.39%	2.41%	3.2%	3.86%
Price to Book	6.52 x	8.17 x	1.83 x	2.41 x	2.36 x	2.18 x	2.08 x	1.98 x
Nbr of stocks (in thousands)	6,85,806	6,71,558	9,29,573	9,30,124	9,31,895	9,32,918	-	-
Reference price ²	66.21	88.31	90.98	101.0	104.8	107.7	107.7	107.7
Announcement Date	29/01/20	27/01/21	27/01/22	31/01/23	30/01/24	-	-	-

¹CAD in Million²CAD

Estimates

Income Statement Evolution (Annual data)

Fiscal Period: December	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026
Net sales ¹	7,792	7,710	7,995	8,814	12,555	14,743	15,925	17,148
EBITDA ¹	3,830	4,090	4,017	4,256	6,425	7,476	8,442	9,344
EBIT ¹	3,124	3,311	3,206	3,403	4,882	5,745	6,636	7,471
Operating Margin	40.09%	42.94%	40.1%	38.61%	38.88%	38.97%	41.67%	43.57%
Earnings before Tax (EBT) ¹	3,146	3,202	3,620	4,145	-3,053	5,168	6,196	6,800
Net income ¹	2,440	2,444	2,852	3,517	3,927	3,832	4,624	5,050
Net margin	31.31%	31.7%	35.67%	39.9%	31.28%	25.99%	29.04%	29.45%
EPS ²	3.504	3.594	4.180	3.770	4.210	4.076	4.926	5.473
Free Cash Flow ¹	1,343	1,131	2,156	2,585	1,669	2,904	3,835	4,651
FCF margin	17.24%	14.67%	26.97%	29.33%	13.29%	19.7%	24.08%	27.12%
FCF Conversion (EBITDA)	35.07%	27.65%	53.67%	60.74%	25.98%	38.85%	45.42%	49.77%
FCF Conversion (Net income)	55.04%	46.28%	75.6%	73.5%	42.5%	75.8%	82.92%	92.09%
Dividend per Share ²	0.6280	0.7120	0.7600	0.7600	0.7600	0.7616	0.8303	0.9647
Announcement Date	29/01/20	27/01/21	27/01/22	31/01/23	30/01/24	-	-	-

¹CAD in Million²CAD

Estimates

Income Statement Evolution (Quarterly data)

Fiscal Period: December	2021 Q4	2022 Q1	2022 Q2	2022 Q3	2022 Q4	2023 Q1	2023 Q2	2023 Q3	2023 Q4	2024 Q1	2024 Q2	2024 Q3	2024 Q4	2025 Q1	2025 Q2
Net sales ¹	2,040	1,838	2,202	2,312	2,462	2,266	3,174	3,339	3,776	3,520	3,546	3,635	3,998	3,820	3,802
EBITDA ¹	1,038	745	1,098	1,168	1,225	1,054	1,475	1,624	2,018	1,726	1,736	1,861	2,109	1,957	1,993
EBIT ¹	832	535	887	955	1,006	829	1,065	1,278	1,561	1,259	1,333	1,459	1,695	1,492	1,543
Operating Margin	40.78%	29.11%	40.28%	41.31%	40.86%	36.58%	33.57%	38.27%	41.34%	35.77%	37.59%	40.13%	42.41%	39.06%	40.58%
Earnings before Tax (EBT) ¹	683	675	1,010	1,087	1,373	963	-6,347	1,038	1,293	1,033	1,221	1,348	1,564	1,349	1,398
Net income ¹	532	590	765	891	1,271	800	1,324	780	1,023	775	915.1	1,011	1,173	1,020	1,056
Net margin	26.08%	32.1%	34.74%	38.54%	51.62%	35.3%	41.71%	23.36%	27.09%	22.02%	25.81%	27.81%	29.34%	26.71%	27.78%
EPS ²	0.7400	0.6300	0.8200	0.9600	1.360	0.8600	1.420	0.8400	1.100	0.8300	0.9702	1.072	1.256	1.132	1.170
Dividend per Share ²	0.1900	0.1900	0.1900	0.1900	0.1900	0.1900	0.1900	0.1900	0.1900	0.1900	0.1905	0.1905	0.1905	0.2025	0.2025
Announcement Date	27/01/22	27/04/22	28/07/22	26/10/22	31/01/23	26/04/23	27/07/23	25/10/23	30/01/24	24/04/24	-	-	-	-	-

¹CAD in Million²CAD

Estimates

Balance Sheet Analysis

Fiscal Period: December	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026
Net Debt ¹	8,624	9,624	20,058	19,200	22,030	19,904	19,260	20,014
Net Cash position ¹	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
Leverage (Debt/EBITDA)	2.252 x	2.353 x	4.993 x	4.511 x	3.429 x	2.662 x	2.281 x	2.142 x
Free Cash Flow ¹	1,343	1,131	2,156	2,585	1,669	2,904	3,835	4,651
ROE (net income / shareholders' equity)	33.4%	33.4%	12.5%	9.68%	9.77%	9.15%	10.2%	11.4%
ROA (Net income/ Total Assets)	10.5%	10.6%	6.21%	4.96%	4.67%	4.93%	5.72%	6.3%
Assets ¹	23,239	23,005	45,908	70,836	84,005	77,743	80,856	80,159
Book Value Per Share ²	10.10	10.80	49.80	41.80	44.50	49.30	51.80	54.30
Cash Flow per Share ²	4.290	4.120	5.400	4.440	4.430	6.130	7.290	8.140
Capex ¹	1,647	1,671	1,532	1,557	2,468	2,679	2,712	2,767
Capex / Sales	21.14%	21.67%	19.16%	17.67%	19.66%	18.17%	17.03%	16.14%
Announcement Date	29/01/20	27/01/21	27/01/22	31/01/23	30/01/24	-	-	-

¹CAD in Million²CAD

Estimates

EPS & Dividend

Year-on-year evolution of the PER

Year-on-year evolution of the Yield

Change in Enterprise Value/EBITDA

Ratings for Canadian Pacific Kansas City Limited

Trading Rating

Investor Rating

ESG Refinitiv

More Ratings

Analysts' Consensus

Sell

Buy

Mean consensus

OUTPERFORM

Number of Analysts

Last Close Price

107.7 CAD

Average target price

123.2 CAD

Spread / Average Target

+14.38%

Consensus

EPS Revisions

Estimates Revisions

Quarterly earnings - Rate of surprise

Company calendar

Sector Other Ground Freight & Logistics

	1st Jan change	Capi.
CANADIAN NATIONAL RAILWAY COMPANY	-2.94%	74.95B
KANSAS CITY SOUTHERN	-.--%	26.71B
XPO, INC.	+20.30%	12.35B
U-HAUL HOLDING COMPANY	-13.64%	11.8B
C.H. ROBINSON WORLDWIDE, INC.	+0.49%	10.32B
KNIGHT-SWIFT TRANSPORTATION HOLDINGS INC.	-12.99%	8.07B
RUMO S.A.	-10.24%	6.9B
RYDER SYSTEM, INC.	+6.63%	5.43B
AYVENS	-14.43%	4.73B

Other Ground Freight & Logistics