Banque nationale de Belgique : Press release - Business confidence indicator (2021-01)PDF

2021-01-25

Links:

NBB.Stat

General information

Monthly business survey - January 2021

Business confidence shows very modest improvement in January

• The business climate has firmed up in the building industry and for the second consecutive month, in business-related services, too. However, entrepreneurs appeared a bit more pessimistic in the trade sector and in the manufacturing industry,
• The production capacity utilisation rate continues to recover.

The economic situation has picked up in the building industry in January. All components of the indicator have been revised upwards, in particular those relating to recent developments, whether order books or equipment used.

Confidence has also gained strength in business-related services, albeit at a slower pace than observed in December. The regained confidence was mainly supported by the assessments and forecasts for surveyed firms' own business activity.

In the trade sector, the modest decline is a result of more subdued prospects for employment and demand.

For the first time since June 2020, the indicator has fallen back very marginally in the manufacturing industry. Appraisals of order books have deteriorated. Also, business leaders have a more negative vision of anticipated trends in demand over the next three months. By contrast, the proportion of company managers who consider their stock levels to be higher than normal has shrunk to a historical low.

The overall smoothed synthetic curve, which reflects the underlying cyclical trend, remains on an upward path.

Finally, according to the results of the quarterly survey of production capacity in the manufacturing industry, the production capacity utilisation rate continues to rise, wiping out the very heavy decline observed last April. The seasonally adjusted rate came to 78.9 % in January, compared to 76.7 % in October 2020.

Business survey indicators

		Gross synthetic curve			Smoothed synthetic
				curve1
	December		January	Variation in		Variation in
	2020	2021		points		Points
Manufacturing industry	-5.1	-5.4		-0.3	3.9
Business-related services	-13.1	-10.2		2.9	-0.4
Building industry	-13.0	-8.0		5.0	-0.1
Trade	-24.6	-25.0		-0.4	-0.3
Overall synthetic curve	-8.4	-7.5		0.9	1.2

1 The smoothed curve has a two-month delay for the overall synthetic curve and a four-month delay for the branches of activity. This implies that the overall smoothed indicator reflects recent developments more closely than the smoothed indicators per branch.

Source: NBB.

Communication	boulevard de Berlaimont 14	phone + 32 2 221 46 28	Company's number:
National Bank of Belgium Ltd.	BE-1000 BRUSSELS	www.nbb.be	0203.201.340 - RLP Brussels

2

JANUARY 2021

OVERALL SYNTHETIC CURVE

20

10 NCS

0 -10-20-30-40-50-60-70

	2016		2017		2018		2019		2020		2021
	MANUFACTURING INDUSTRY			BUSINESS-RELATED SERVICES
20						20
10						10
0						0
-10						-10
-20						-20
-30						-30
-40						-40
-50						-50
-60 NS975						-60	NS296
-70
					-70
2016	2017	2018	2019	2020	2021
	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020	2021

BUILDING INDUSTRY

20
10
0
-10
-20
-30
-40
-50
-60	NS707
-70
	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020	2021

Seasonally adjusted and smoothed series Source: NBB

TRADE

20
10
0
-10
-20
-30
-40
-50
-60	NS914
-70
	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020	2021

Seasonally adjusted series

Communication	boulevard de Berlaimont 14	phone + 32 2 221 46 28	Company's number:
National Bank of Belgium Ltd.	BE-1000 BRUSSELS	www.nbb.be	0203.201.340 - RLP Brussels

3

SYNTHETIC CURVES AND THEIR COMPONENTS

TABLE 1

Seasonally adjusted balances of ''positive'' answers or					Adjusted series		Smoothed series
''higher than normal''(+) and ''negative'' answers or	1980-2021	1		2020		2021		2020
''lower than normal''(-).
Min. Max. Avg. Oct. Nov. Dec. Jan. Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov.
Overall synthetic curve	- 36.1	+ 9.2	- 7.2	- 8.5	- 12.1	- 8.4	- 7.5	- 12.2	- 11.1	- 10.3	- 9.1
Manufacturing industry curve	- 36.0	+ 6.0	- 10.2	- 9.0	- 8.0	- 5.1	- 5.4	- 15.8	- 11.9	.	.
Assessment of total order books	- 57.7	+ 10.0	- 21.5	- 26.7	- 24.7	- 20.7	- 24.4	- 37.8	- 33.0	.	.
Assessment of level of stocks ²	- 12.9	+ 25.0	+ 5.8	- 9.2	- 8.6	- 7.9	- 11.2	- 2.3	- 5.3	.	.
Employment expectations	- 41.4	+ 8.0	- 8.5	- 10.7	- 8.7	- 4.6	- 4.3	- 13.6	- 10.8	.	.
Demand expectations	- 37.9	+ 15.0	- 4.9	- 7.9	- 7.3	- 3.0	- 4.1	- 11.8	- 9.1	.	.

Business-related services curve	- 62.1	+ 34.0	+ 9.3	- 8.7	- 24.0	- 13.1	- 10.2	- 8.4	- 8.8	.	.
Assessment of activity	- 71.6	+ 20.0	- 5.8	- 39.5	- 43.6	- 40.9	- 35.0	- 45.9	- 43.7	.	.
Activity expectations	- 70.7	+ 51.7	+ 21.7	+ 6.3	- 7.3	+ 6.8	+ 9.1	+ 12.7	+ 11.0	.	.
Market demand expectations	- 59.9	+ 45.0	+ 13.1	+ 7.1	- 21.0	- 5.1	- 4.7	+ 5.5	+ 4.3	.	.

Building industry curve	- 39.0	+ 24.3	- 7.0	- 4.3	- 12.1	- 13.0	- 8.0	- 5.1	- 5.2	.	.
Trend in orders	- 52.0	+ 40.0	- 4.3	+ 0.8	- 8.6	- 15.4	- 5.2	- 2.5	- 2.3	.	.
Trend in equipment	- 38.4	+ 24.0	+ 1.6	- 0.8	- 5.7	- 6.1	- 0.3	- 3.4	- 3.0	.	.
Assessment of order books	- 74.0	+ 30.0	- 22.1	- 7.4	- 18.4	- 16.7	- 16.0	- 5.9	- 7.6	.	.
Demand expectations	- 39.0	+ 21.0	- 3.0	- 9.9	- 15.6	- 13.9	- 10.5	- 9.7	- 9.3	.	.

Trade curve	- 41.8	+ 16.0	- 2.7	- 14.5	- 30.4	- 24.6	- 25.0	- 23.4	- 23.7	.	.
Employment expectations	- 33.0	+ 18.0	+ 1.1	- 17.4	- 19.5	- 19.4	- 22.3	- 19.6	- 19.1	.	.
Demand expectations	- 56.0	+ 29.0	- 0.9	- 8.8	- 41.6	- 30.1	- 32.8	- 25.0	- 26.4	.	.
Intentions of placing orders	- 40.1	+ 15.0	- 7.7	- 17.3	- 30.1	- 24.3	- 19.7	- 23.8	- 23.3	.	.

1. Minimum, maximum and average values of each indicator (adjusted series) since January 1980.
2. A positive, respectively negative balance, means that stocks, according to the assessment of entrepreneurs, are higher, respectively lower than normal for the season. When synthetic curves are calculated, the sign of this indicator is therefore reversed.

Communication	boulevard de Berlaimont 14	phone [phone]	Company's number:
National Bank of Belgium Ltd.	BE-1000 BRUSSELS	www.nbb.be	0203.201.340 - RLP Brussels

4

OTHER BUSINESS SURVEY INDICATORS

TABLE 2

Seasonally adjusted balances of ''positive'' answers or					Adjusted series		Smoothed series
''higher than normal''(+) and ''negative'' answers or	1980-20211		2020		2021		2020
''lower than normal''(-).	Min.	Max.	Avg.	Oct.	Nov.	Dec.	Jan.	Aug.	Sept.	Oct.	Nov.
Manufacturing industry
Trend in production rate	- 53.0	+ 20.0	- 1.0	+ 15.2	- 5.2	- 0.9	+ 7.5	+ 2.5	+ 3.5	.	.
Trend in domestic orders	- 48.7	+ 16.0	- 7.8	- 1.5	- 12.0	- 11.2	- 1.6	- 11.9	- 9.8	.	.
Trend in export orders	- 56.3	+ 30.0	- 2.6	+ 15.7	+ 2.7	+ 5.0	+ 3.1	+ 6.1	+ 8.5	.	.
Assessment of export order books	- 61.0	+ 10.0	- 22.9	- 21.6	- 26.7	- 18.5	- 19.5	- 37.5	- 32.5	.	.
Trend in prices	- 21.0	+ 24.0	+ 1.0	+ 4.0	+ 2.9	+ 6.1	+ 9.3	- 0.8	+ 1.9	.	.
Price expectations	- 24.0	+ 43.0	+ 6.5	+ 6.2	+ 4.4	+ 10.3	+ 11.9	+ 1.1	+ 3.1	.	.
Production capacity
(in percentage of the total production capacity)	70.1	84.6	78.9	76.7	-	-	78.9
Source: quarterly production capacity survey
Business-related services
Trend in activity	- 73.0	+ 37.0	+ 9.4	+ 11.6	- 12.9	- 2.7	+ 5.1	- 2.0	+ 0.6	.	.
Trend in employment	- 49.4	+ 34.0	+ 6.6	- 1.7	+ 2.6	+ 4.4	+ 9.1	- 8.8	- 3.1	.	.
Employment expectations	- 35.0	+ 48.0	+ 17.0	+ 6.9	+ 1.6	+ 12.0	+ 8.7	+ 2.6	+ 5.0	.	.
Trend in prices	- 15.8	+ 12.0	+ 1.7	- 3.7	- 2.7	- 2.5	- 4.6	- 4.0	- 3.6	.	.
Price expectations	- 13.0	+ 30.0	+ 6.6	+ 2.8	+ 4.4	+ 4.7	- 2.6	+ 3.8	+ 4.1	.	.
Building industry
Trend in activity	- 66.6	+ 34.7	- 4.4	- 0.9	- 14.0	- 6.3	- 6.8	- 3.5	- 3.8	.	.
Trend in employment	- 38.0	+ 22.0	- 5.1	- 3.1	- 3.1	- 1.4	- 5.2	- 2.0	- 2.1	.	.
Employment expectations	- 50.0	+ 30.0	- 4.5	+ 4.3	- 1.0	- 3.5	- 2.1	+ 2.2	+ 2.6	.	.
Trend in prices	- 27.1	+ 32.0	- 2.0	- 5.6	- 6.4	- 7.5	- 5.6	- 5.5	- 5.5	.	.
Price expectations	- 20.6	+ 46.0	+ 5.0	- 2.3	- 3.6	- 5.6	- 8.0	- 1.3	- 1.7	.	.
Trade
Trend in sales	- 50.1	+ 43.0	- 0.8	- 6.4	- 17.6	- 44.7	- 18.7	- 8.1	- 10.0	.	.
Assessment of sales	- 50.0	+ 28.0	- 9.4	- 3.0	- 8.0	- 41.9	- 21.9	- 17.7	- 15.1	.	.
Assessment of level of stocks ²	- 12.9	+ 38.1	+ 12.2	+ 5.4	+ 7.2	+ 16.2	+ 4.4	+ 9.4	+ 7.6	.	.
Trend in prices	- 23.5	+ 50.0	+ 1.6	+ 10.8	- 10.7	- 14.5	- 16.9	- 11.7	- 12.1	.	.
Price expectations	- 14.2	+ 66.2	+ 11.0	+ 11.2	- 14.2	- 13.9	+ 3.5	+ 1.4	+ 2.3	.	.

1. Minimum, maximum and average values of each indicator (adjusted series) since January 1980.
2. A positive, respectively negative balance, means that stocks, according to the assessment of entrepreneurs, are higher, respectively lower than normal for the season.

Communication	boulevard de Berlaimont 14	phone [phone]	Company's number:
National Bank of Belgium Ltd.	BE-1000 BRUSSELS	www.nbb.be	0203.201.340 - RLP Brussels