Financials Aluminum Corporation of China Limited Shanghai S.E.

Equities

601600

CNE1000000T0

Aluminum

End-of-day quote Shanghai S.E. Other stock markets 03:30:00 16/07/2024 am IST			5-day change	1st Jan Change
7.91 ^CNY	-1.74%		-1.86%	+40.25%

12/07	Chalco Shares Rise After Positive Profit Alert	DJ
11/07	Chalco's H1 Profit to Rise Up to 114%	MT

Valuation

Fiscal Period: December	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026
Capitalization ¹	55,696	56,549	93,513	70,555	88,626	1,23,570	-	-
Enterprise Value (EV) ¹	1,25,173	1,29,878	1,62,937	1,26,116	1,34,566	1,64,551	1,46,002	1,24,269
P/E ratio	64.5 x	82.4 x	12.3 x	12.3 x	9.09 x	8.33 x	8.56 x	7.23 x
Yield	-	-	0.91%	-	2.26%	2.68%	2.2%	2.71%
Capitalization / Revenue	0.29 x	0.3 x	0.35 x	0.24 x	0.39 x	0.53 x	0.5 x	0.5 x
EV / Revenue	0.66 x	0.7 x	0.6 x	0.43 x	0.6 x	0.7 x	0.59 x	0.51 x
EV / EBITDA	8.35 x	9.51 x	7.44 x	5.35 x	5.32 x	4.58 x	4.15 x	3.09 x
EV / FCF	37 x	13.2 x	6.24 x	5.45 x	6.62 x	6.91 x	4.99 x	3.95 x
FCF Yield	2.7%	7.58%	16%	18.3%	15.1%	14.5%	20%	25.3%
Price to Book	0.65 x	0.72 x	1.04 x	-	1.01 x	1.19 x	1.06 x	0.89 x
Nbr of stocks (in thousands)	1,70,22,673	1,70,22,673	1,70,22,673	1,71,61,592	1,71,61,592	1,71,58,381	-	-
Reference price ²	2.386	2.306	3.512	2.932	3.545	4.829	4.829	4.829
Announcement Date	26/03/20	23/03/21	22/03/22	21/03/23	27/03/24	-	-	-

¹CNY in Million²CNY

Estimates

Income Statement Evolution (Annual data)

Fiscal Period: December	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026
Net sales ¹	1,90,074	1,85,994	2,69,748	2,90,988	2,25,071	2,34,985	2,46,269	2,44,926
EBITDA ¹	14,991	13,659	21,907	23,561	25,301	35,963	35,159	40,204
EBIT ¹	6,455	6,023	13,409	13,682	15,296	24,362	26,198	29,379
Operating Margin	3.4%	3.24%	4.97%	4.7%	6.8%	10.37%	10.64%	12%
Earnings before Tax (EBT) ¹	2,114	2,155	10,179	13,209	15,091	22,663	23,304	26,930
Net income ¹	851	741	5,080	4,192	6,717	9,926	9,673	11,432
Net margin	0.45%	0.4%	1.88%	1.44%	2.98%	4.22%	3.93%	4.67%
EPS ²	0.0370	0.0280	0.2860	0.2390	0.3900	0.5797	0.5641	0.6680
Free Cash Flow ¹	3,382	9,842	26,095	23,142	20,331	23,820	29,230	31,483
FCF margin	1.78%	5.29%	9.67%	7.95%	9.03%	10.14%	11.87%	12.85%
FCF Conversion (EBITDA)	22.56%	72.06%	119.12%	98.22%	80.36%	66.24%	83.14%	78.31%
FCF Conversion (Net income)	397.43%	1,328.26%	513.72%	552.06%	302.69%	239.98%	302.17%	275.4%
Dividend per Share ²	-	-	0.0320	-	0.0800	0.1292	0.1064	0.1307
Announcement Date	26/03/20	23/03/21	22/03/22	21/03/23	27/03/24	-	-	-

¹CNY in Million²CNY

Estimates

Income Statement Evolution (Quarterly data)

Fiscal Period: December	2019 S2	2020 S1	2020 S2	2021 S1	2021 Q4	2021 S2	2022 Q1	2022 Q2	2022 S1	2022 Q3	2022 Q4	2022 S2	2023 Q1	2023 Q2	2023 S1	2023 Q3	2023 Q4	2023 S2	2024 Q1	2024 Q2	2024 S1	2024 Q3	2024 Q4	2024 S2	2025 S1	2025 S2
Net sales ¹	95,134	84,109	1,01,886	1,20,736	74,819	1,49,012	75,621	69,782	1,45,403	60,669	84,916	1,45,585	66,279	67,783	1,34,063	54,342	36,666	91,008	48,956	61,943	1,13,908	61,943	60,729	1,28,454	1,09,495	1,21,790
EBITDA	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
EBIT ¹	-	-	-	6,718	318.1	5,891	2,953	5,386	8,339	1,514	5,095	6,609	3,379	-	8,085	5,120	2,091	9,558	4,745	5,547	11,788	5,423	7,280	10,457	7,167	6,689
Operating Margin	-	-	-	5.56%	0.43%	3.95%	3.9%	7.72%	5.74%	2.49%	6%	4.54%	5.1%	-	6.03%	9.42%	5.7%	10.5%	9.69%	8.95%	10.35%	8.75%	11.99%	8.14%	6.55%	5.49%
Earnings before Tax (EBT) ¹	-	-	-	-	70.02	-	2,880	4,077	-	1,411	4,841	-	3,448	3,272	-	4,339	4,032	-	4,792	4,851	-	4,727	6,584	-	-	-
Net income ¹	-	-	-	-	-227.9	-	-	2,414	-	577.5	-375	-	-	-	-	1,936	1,364	-	2,230	2,041	-	1,942	3,825	-	-	-
Net margin	-	-	-	-	-0.3%	-	-	3.46%	-	0.95%	-0.44%	-	-	-	-	3.56%	3.72%	-	4.56%	3.3%	-	3.14%	6.3%	-	-	-
EPS ²	0.002000	-0.006000	-	0.1740	-0.0170	0.1120	0.0910	0.1400	0.2310	0.0310	-0.0230	0.008000	0.1050	0.0930	0.1980	0.1110	0.0810	0.1920	0.1300	0.1600	0.2900	0.1700	0.1500	0.2600	0.1800	0.1600
Dividend per Share	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
Announcement Date	26/03/20	27/08/20	23/03/21	24/08/21	22/03/22	22/03/22	26/04/22	23/08/22	23/08/22	25/10/22	21/03/23	21/03/23	25/04/23	22/08/23	22/08/23	25/10/23	27/03/24	27/03/24	25/04/24	-	-	-	-	-	-	-

¹CNY in Million²CNY

Estimates

Balance Sheet Analysis

Fiscal Period: December	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026
Net Debt ¹	93,771	73,329	69,424	55,561	37,382	39,815	22,431	699
Net Cash position ¹	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
Leverage (Debt/EBITDA)	6.255 x	5.369 x	3.169 x	2.358 x	1.319 x	1.107 x	0.638 x	0.0174 x
Free Cash Flow ¹	3,582	9,842	26,095	23,142	20,331	23,820	29,230	29,309
ROE (net income / shareholders' equity)	1.59%	1.36%	9.09%	6.9%	11.7%	15.4%	14.4%	14.3%
ROA (Net income/ Total Assets)	0.42%	0.37%	2.62%	-	3.17%	4.99%	4.53%	6.11%
Assets ¹	2,02,018	2,00,271	1,93,876	-	2,12,058	1,98,878	2,13,504	1,86,994
Book Value Per Share ²	3.670	3.190	3.360	-	3.520	4.060	4.570	5.400
Cash Flow per Share ²	0.7300	0.8700	1.660	-	1.560	1.550	1.690	1.820
Capex ¹	8,892	5,039	2,136	4,664	6,709	11,772	10,051	8,007
Capex / Sales	4.68%	2.71%	0.79%	1.6%	2.98%	4.99%	4.08%	3.27%
Announcement Date	26/03/20	23/03/21	22/03/22	21/03/23	27/03/24	-	-	-

¹CNY in Million²CNY

Estimates

EPS & Dividend

Year-on-year evolution of the PER

Year-on-year evolution of the Yield

Change in Enterprise Value/EBITDA

Ratings for Aluminum Corporation of China Limited

Trading Rating

Investor Rating

ESG Refinitiv

More Ratings

Analysts' Consensus

Sell

Buy

Mean consensus

BUY

Number of Analysts

Last Close Price

4.829 CNY

Average target price

5.821 CNY

Spread / Average Target

+20.55%

Consensus

EPS Revisions

Estimates Revisions

Quarterly earnings - Rate of surprise

Company calendar

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