AGF Management : A Memorable Week Ahead, With the Senate Up For Grabs

Insights and Market Perspectives

Author: 8

January 4, 2021

A Memorable Week Ahead, With the Senate Up for Grabs
January 4, 2021
THERE ARE SO MANY STORIES we'd rather cover as this new year begins - tensions with Iran, the emergence of a tough new antitrust policy, the likelihood of a dramatic shift in U.S. energy use - but those and many other themes will have to wait.

THE BOMBSHELL IS THAT DONALD TRUMP GOT CAUGHT YESTERDAY, making threats which many legal experts say is a potential felony - the solicitation of election fraud. Someone got Trump on tape, and it's not fake news.

THIS WILL FURTHER SCRAMBLE the outlook for tomorrow's two Georgia senate races, where a slight Republican lead a month ago seemingly has narrowed. The Trump tape didn't help the GOP and now both elections are too close to call, perhaps headed for recounts and still more disputes.

TWO KEY POINTS: First, even if the Democrats win both seats - and, therefore,
the Senate, there are at least a couple of moderate Democrats who will not consistently vote with their party.

Second, the Electoral College challenge on Wednesday is largely theater; it won't
change Joe Biden's victory - there was no significant fraud, as William Barr and
dozens of judges have asserted.

BUT THIS IS WASHINGTON, where there's already an intense focus on the NEXT presidential election. The lean and hungry Sen. Josh Hawley (R-Mo.) has poorly concealed his ferocious ambition to inherit the Trump base; he and Ted Cruz will launch a last-ditch effort to block Biden on Wednesday. To their credit, neither Lindsey Graham nor Marco Rubio nor Tom Cotton have joined the rebels.

SO THERE WILL BE HOURS AND HOURS of debate on Wednesday, starting at 1 p.m. and probably lasting well into the night. And there probably will be clashes in the streets as Proud Boys battle leftists. But by the end of this week, the temperature will begin returning to normal, with Biden and Mitch McConnell discussing legislative plans.

BIDEN WILL HAVE TO CONTEND with a deeply divided electorate; well over half of all Republicans believe the election was stolen. Trump, who's also eyeing 2024, will
continue to brand Biden's presidency as 'illegitimate.'

TRUMP WILL REMAIN A FOCUS of endless controversy, of course; what can you say about a president who claimed yesterday that 350,000 U.S. Covid-19 fatalities are exaggerated and 'fake news?' The post-Christmas surge in Covid cases will continue for weeks; the economy will stay in a soft patch until spring.

ALL THE HAND-WRINGING about damage to American institutions seems over-done; the country will move on and the markets are looking forward to a robust second half.

THE REAL FOCUS should be on the virus and vaccines; the initial rollout has been
extremely disappointing. Millions of people need to be inoculated, fast - that's
the biggest issue, not a brazen effort by Josh Hawley and Ted Cruz to jump-start
their presidential campaigns.

The views expressed in this blog are those of the author and do not necessarily represent the opinions of AGF, its subsidiaries or any of its affiliated companies, funds or investment strategies.

The views expressed in this blog are provided as a general source of information based on information available as of the date of publication and should not be considered as personal investment advice or an offer or solicitation to buy and/or sell securities. Speculation or stated believes about future events, such as market or economic conditions, company or security performance, or other projections represent the beliefs of the author and do not necessarily represent the view of AGF, its subsidiaries or any of its affiliated companies, funds or investment strategies. Every effort has been made to ensure accuracy in these commentaries at the time of publication; however, accuracy cannot be guaranteed. Market conditions may change and AGF accepts no responsibility for individual investment decisions arising from the use of or reliance on the information contained herein. Any financial projections are based on the opinions of the author and should not be considered as a forecast. The forward looking statements and opinions may be affected by changing economic circumstances and are subject to a number of uncertainties that may cause actual results to differ materially from those contemplated in the forward looking statements. The information contained in this commentary is designed to provide you with general information related to the political and economic environment in the United States. It is not intended to be comprehensive investment advice applicable to the circumstances of the individual.

AGF Investments is a group of wholly owned subsidiaries of AGF Management Limited, a Canadian reporting issuer. The subsidiaries included in AGF Investments are AGF Investments Inc. (AGFI), AGF Investments America Inc. (AGFA), AGF Investments LLC (AGFUS) and AGF International Advisors Company Limited (AGFIA). AGFA and AGFUS are registered advisors in the U.S. AGFI is a registered as a portfolio manager across Canadian securities commissions. AGFIA is regulated by the Central Bank of Ireland and registered with the Australian Securities & Investments Commission. The subsidiaries that form AGF Investments manage a variety of mandates comprised of equity, fixed income and balanced assets.

Founded in 1957, AGF Management Limited (AGF) is an independent and globally diverse asset management firm. AGF brings a disciplined approach to delivering excellence in investment management through its fundamental, quantitative, alternative and high-net-worth businesses focused on providing an exceptional client experience. AGF's suite of investment solutions extends globally to a wide range of clients, from financial advisors and individual investors to institutional investors including pension plans, corporate plans, sovereign wealth funds and endowments and foundations.

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