Talking Points
- USDCHF stalls after achieving primary targets- 9153 resistance
- Weekly opening range in focus- Break to validate near-term scalp bias
- Broader outlook remains weighted to the topside above 8980
USDCHF Daily Chart
Chart Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0
Broader Technical Outlook
- USDCHF achieves all three resistance objectives- 9153 resistance in focus (weekly high)
- Primary objective 9188/98- Subsequent resistance targets at 9232 & 9313/16
- Break sub weekly range low / Fib support at 9077/84 invalidates bullishscalp bias
- Broader outlook remains weighted to the topside above- 8980
- Momentum testing 60- Breach to validate bias
- PendingRSI support trigger takes us out of long exposure
- Event Risk: US Existing Home Sales on Tomorrow
USDCHF Scalp Chart
Notes: Half of our long exposure was booked at 9150 in DailyFX on Demand on Tuesday morning with the remainder of the trade getting stopped out on the move sub-9120. A brief break below trendline support dating back to the December lows was quickly recovered in pre-market trade today and our scalp bias continues to favor the topside while above the 9077/83 support region.
Note that the momentum signature has broadly held above the 40-theshold (supportive) and a breach above the weekly range high with RSI conviction puts us back on track with our initial objective eyed at 9188/98.
We will respect a break below the weekly range low with such a scenario invalidating our near-term bias and puts support targets into view at 9045 & 9024. Bottom line: the broader outlook remains constructive above 8980/88 and we will look to buy dips/breaks of resistance while above this threshold.
* It’s extremely important to give added consideration regarding the timing of intra-day scalps with the opening ranges on a session & hourly basis offering further clarity on intra-day biases.
Key Threshold Grid
Entry/Exit Targets | Timeframe | Level | Significance |
Resistance Target 1 | 30min | 9120 | Soft Resistance / Pivot |
Bearish Invalidation | 30min | 9153 | 78.6% Retracement / Weekly ORH |
Break Target 1 | Daily / 30min | 9188/98 | 61.8% Ext / 38.2% & 88.6% Retraces |
Break Target 2 | Daily | 9233 | 200DMA / (Nov High at 9249) |
Break Target 3 | Daily / 30min | 9313/18 | 100% Ext / 50% Retracement |
Bullish Invalidation | Daily / 30min | 9077/84 | 61.8% Retrace / Weekly ORL / TL Support |
Break Target 1 | 30min | 9045 | Soft Support / Pivot / Last Week’s ORH |
Break Target 2 | 30min | 9020/24 | 50% Retrace / Jan 2nd Swing High / 50DMA |
Break Target 3 | Daily / 30min | 8980/88 | Jan 2nd Close / Last Week’s ORL / Pivot |
Break Target 4 | 30min | 8935 | 61.8% Retracement |
Average True Range | Daily (20) | 69 | Profit Targets 17-19pips |
*ORH: Opening Range High
*ORL: Opening Range Low
Other Setups in Play:
- EURUSD Bias At Risk Above 1.3522- Weekly Opening Range in Focus
- AUDCAD Scalps Target Key Support- Bias Bearish below 9746
- Scalping EURNZD Correction- Bias Bullish Above 1.6154
- EURAUD Scalps Eye Channel Breakout- Bias Bullish above 1.5020
---Written by Michael Boutros, Currency Strategist with DailyFX
For updates on this scalp and more setups follow him on Twitter @MBForex
To contact Michael email mboutros@dailyfx.com or Click Here to be added to his email distribution list
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