Weekly market update : The market is moving forward again

Pending the start of the fourth-quarter earnings season, investors tried to pick up a few clues as to the timing of rate cuts. Wall Street advanced, led by technology stocks, while European stock markets generally stagnated in this latest weekly sequence. Slightly higher-than-expected US inflation did not alter expectations of a first reduction in the cost of borrowing in March.

Weekly variations* US 500 4783  +1.84% JUNIPER NETWORKS, IN... +25.41% ORGANON & CO. +16.24% PALO ALTO NETWORKS, ... +14.95% EVERSOURCE ENERGY -8.36% PARAMOUNT GLOBAL -9.01% BOEING -12.57% DOW JONES INDUST... 37592.98  +0.34% NASDAQ 100 16832.92  +3.23% FTSE 100 7624.93  -0.84% GOLD 2048.29$  +0.20% WTI 72.78$  -1.36% EURO / US DOLLAR 1.09$  +0.07%

This week's gainers and losers

Gainers: Juniper Networks (+26%): The specialist in ultra-high-speed Internet networking equipment has received a takeover offer from Hewlett Packard Enterprise for $14 billion. Through this acquisition, HPE aims to develop its capabilities in artificial intelligence. The deal is expected to be finalized in late 2024 or early 2025, following approval from regulatory authorities and Juniper shareholders.  Crocs (+21%): Buoyed by better-than-expected sales during the holiday season, the American manufacturer of plastic shoes has raised its forecasts for the fourth quarter and full year 2023. Annual revenues are expected to reach a record $3.95 billion. The group also raised its annual operating margin outlook and issued an encouraging forecast for 2024. Crowdstrike (+15%): According to Morgan Stanley, the increase in cyber-attacks and generative artificial intelligence should bolster the business of the American group specializing in cybersecurity services. The analyst, who praises the company's latest quarterly results and new products, expects improved earnings and cash flow. Citigroup also upgraded its recommendation on the stock. DocuSign (+13%): The electronic signature specialist has received several expressions of interest in a takeover. Among the bidders, investors Bain Capital and Hellman & Friedman are said to be ready to pay $12 billion to jointly take over the group. As a reminder, DocuSign went public in 2018 with a valuation of $6 billion. Darktrace (+12%): The British cybersecurity company has raised its revenue growth and adjusted profit margin forecasts for 2024, betting on strong demand for its artificial intelligence-powered products. It forecasts sales growth of 27% for the last half of the year, and 23% and 24.5% for the full year. Fallers: Boeing (-11%): The aircraft manufacturer is plummeting after one of its aircraft, operated by Alaska Airlines, lost an emergency door mid-flight this week. The incident follows a long series of setbacks for the group, including production delays, technical problems and cost overruns. Burberry (-8%): The slowdown in demand in the luxury goods sector affected Burberry's sales in December. As a result, the British fashion brand lowered its profit forecasts for the year, dragging its luxury peers down with it. Coinbase (-8%): Will the approval of Bitcoin Spot ETFs be good or bad news for the cryptocurrency exchange platform? While it will lose its status as the preferred access provider for bitcoin holders, to the detriment of asset management companies, it should also ultimately benefit from the general craze promised by this expansion of the sector. To be continued.  AT&T (-7%): Lead in telecom cables is the latest problem facing telecom giants AT&T and Verizon (-6%). The US Environmental Protection Agency plans to meet with the operators this month to study the impact of these cables on public health.

Commodities

Energy: Oil prices continue to be buffeted between tensions in the Red Sea and pessimistic data on the global supply/demand balance, with Saudi Arabia in particular shaking up the market at the start of the week by lowering its selling price to Asia. The other factor weighing on oil is the strength of US production, as the US Energy Agency (EIA) has revised its forecasts upwards. It estimates that the United States should produce 13.21 million barrels per day this year, rising to 13.44 by 2025. Finally, the surprise rise in US weekly inventories (+1.3 million versus a consensus of -0.2 million) also helped to neutralize buying initiatives. In terms of prices, Brent is still trading below the USD 80 mark, at precisely USD 78, while WTI is trading at around USD 72.50. Metals: Copper remains under pressure on the London Metal Exchange. The barometer of the global economy is trading around USD 8300, weighed down by uncertainties over the economic outlook following the World Bank's warning that global growth is set to stall in 2024 at 2.4%, compared with 2.6% last year. Gold is also losing ground, albeit modestly, with the golden metal trading at around USD 2030. Agricultural products: Grain prices did not fluctuate much this week in Chicago, with the trend maintaining its bearish bias. Corn prices stabilized at around 460 cents a bushel, compared with 620 cents for wheat.

Macroeconomics

Atmosphere: The slowdown in inflation is one of the pillars of the current narrative, which should enable the Fed to lower its key rates, ideally as early as next March. The publication of a slightly higher-than-expected consumer price index was cause for concern. In December, the CPI came in at +3.4% year-on-year against a forecast of +3.2%, while the "Core" version (excluding energy and food) stood at +3.9% against a forecast of +3.8%. After an initial negative reaction, stock market indices managed to recover, particularly during the US session, while the yield on the US 10-year bond held below the technical threshold of 4.07%. Investors therefore continue to bet on monetary policy easing in the short term, while having mourned the prospect of a rapid economic recovery in China. Crypto: The news that has been stirring the cryptosphere this week is, of course, the decision by the SEC, the US financial markets regulator, to approve Bitcoin Spot ETFs, i.e. the marketing of exchange-traded funds backed directly by Bitcoin. After years of refusal, and at the request of several asset management companies, including behemoths BlackRock, Invesco and Fidelity, the regulator finally gave the go-ahead for the launch of 11 products. An agreement that left a bitter taste in the mouth of Gary Gensler, head of the institution, as he declared in the aftermath: "We neither approve nor support Bitcoin". Nevertheless, this "institutionalization" of Bitcoin trading opens the door to widespread popular investment in the crypto-king.

The market is moving forward again The US market will be closed on Monday for Martin Luther King Day. The main statistics expected are consumer health in the US, December retail sales (Wednesday) and the University of Michigan's confidence index for January (Friday). Corporate results will come in bigger numbers next week: after a new series of US banks (Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs...), the first non-financials, such as Rio Tinto, Repsol and Compagnie Financière Richemont, will follow.

Things to read this week

AI in recovery mode: China dismantles Nvidia GeForce gamers This cobbled-together solution provides chips with high computing power, even if they are far less powerful than those specifically dedicated to AI, especially... Read more Is the range of Tesla's electric vehicles exaggerated? Criticized in the past for overestimating the range of its cars, Tesla has received new directives from the government and had to comply. Unsurprisingly, the... Read more A Pivotal Day for Crypto - The SEC's Verdict on Bitcoin ETFs This made cryptocurrency history. The entire crypto space has been in a state of heightened speculation for months, eagerly awaiting the U.S. Securities and... Read more

*The weekly movements of indexes and stocks displayed on the dashboard are related to the period ranging from the open on Monday to the sending time of this newsletter on Friday. The weekly movements of commodities, precious metals and currencies displayed on the dashboard are related to a 7-day rolling period from Friday to Friday, until the sending time of this newsletter. These assets continue to quote on weekends.