Several Western stock market indices set new records this week, boosted by corporate earnings and the promise of artificial intelligence. However, news on the US price front is not very good: inflation and producer prices in January were too strong to sustain hopes of a rapid rate cut. Investor optimism is being put to the test, as earnings season draws to a close with Nvidia's quarterly results on February 21.
Weekly variations*
DOW JONES INDUST...
38627.99  -0.11%
Chart DOW JONES INDUST...
NASDAQ 100
17685.98  -1.54%
Chart NASDAQ 100
FTSE 100
7711.71  +1.84%
Chart FTSE 100
GOLD
2013.26$  -0.60%
Chart GOLD
WTI
78.33$  +2.53%
Chart WTI
EURO / US DOLLAR
1.08$  -0.19%
Chart EURO / US DOLLAR
This week's gainers and losers
Gainers:
  • Lyft (+46%) & Uber (+15%) are back in the black. Uber reported its first-ever annual profit in 2023, at $1.9 billion. It also unveiled a bright outlook and announced a $7 billion share buyback. Lyft, after rising on a publication error this week, nevertheless confirmed its rise by reporting a sharply reduced loss in Q4 2023, positive EBITDA, sales up 4% and booking volume up 17% over the period. However, drivers from both companies went on strike yesterday to demand better pay conditions. 
  • Super Micro Computer (+36%): The rally in US technology companies linked to artificial intelligence shows no signs of abating. The assembler, which is largely benefiting from the trend, has set new all-time highs every day this week. It has gained 253% since the start of the year (yes, you read that right) and 1134% since January 2023 (yes, here too).
  • Diamondback Energy (+18%): The oil producer has signed a merger agreement with privately-owned Endeavor Energy Resources, for $26 billion. This combination will create a new energy behemoth, expected to be valued at at least $50 billion, and armed to compete with other industry giants such as ConocoPhillips. The market applauds.  
  • Coinbase (+17%) & Robinhood Markets (+16%): Cryptocurrency brokerage platforms are benefiting greatly from the strength of Bitcoin, which this week surpassed the $50,000 threshold. Coinbase also delighted investors by returning to profit in Q4 of fiscal 2023 and posting quarterly sales up by over 50%. A similar situation for Robinhood, which posted solid, better-than-expected quarterly results, a surprise profit for the period and assets under custody up 65% for the year. 
  • Arm (+16%): Like Super Micro Computer, UK-based ARM is benefiting from investors' frenzy for artificial intelligence. This week, the chipmaker's share price soared again following an announcement by industry leader Nvidia, which revealed that it had taken a position of nearly $150 million in the British group. ARM also raised its annual sales estimate. The stock has gained over 90% since the start of the year.
Losers:
  • Avis Budget (-28%): The car rental company fell after publishing disappointing results for Q4 2023. Earnings per share came in at $7.1, down sharply on the previous year's figure of $10.1, while sales were down slightly, and below market expectations. It should be noted that the punishment is severe, as annual sales hit a record high, and rental volumes were up. 
  • Twilio (-15%): The cloud communications software maker did better than expected last quarter, with sales of $1.1 billion, but it cooled the markets by announcing a slowdown in future growth and a decline in revenues It also expects higher expenses in the current quarter.
  • West Pharma (-14%): The pharmaceutical equipment manufacturer did not fall short of expectations. Its sales grew by 10% in 2023, and its gross margin and profit increased in the last quarter. However, the US group unveiled timid forecasts for 2024: its adjusted earnings and net sales outlook missed market expectations.
Chart Commodities
Commodities
  • Energy: Small weekly gains in oil this week, despite headwinds such as the rise in the US dollar and the sharp increase in weekly US inventories (up 12 million barrels). OPEC and the International Energy Agency (IEA) published their monthly report on oil markets. Not much has changed since January, as OPEC and the IEA have not modified their forecasts for global oil demand growth. The cartel is still very optimistic about the state of demand, while the IEA is much less so, expecting it to run out of steam. European Brent rose to USD 83, while US WTI advanced to USD 78 a barrel. In Europe, mild winter weather and comfortable storage levels are driving gas prices to a new annual low of 24 EUR/MWh.
  • Metals: Gold suffered a blow, falling back to close to USD 2,000 an ounce, penalized by the latest US economic statistics, which do little to encourage the Federal Reserve to hurry up and lower its key rates. As a result, bond yields have soared, to the detriment of the barbarian relic, which is back to square one. In industrial metals, copper stalled on the LME at USD 8150, as did aluminum (USD 2200) and zinc (USD 2300).
  • Agricultural products: No improvement in sight in Chicago, where grain prices are continuing their downward trend. Corn is trading at around 430 cents, compared with 570 cents per bushel for wheat.
Chart Commodities
Macroeconomics
  • Atmosphere: "Don't fight the Fed". Really? We wonder who's still paying attention to interest rates. Since the start of the year, the 10-year yield in the United States has risen from 3.78% to 4.33% last week. With no impact on the main US indices, which once again set new all-time highs. Thanks to whom? AI, of course! And yet, one of the pillars of the rise was the control of inflation, which allowed key interest rates to be lowered. Unfortunately, things are starting to crumble. The US consumer price index (CPI) came in above expectations at +3.9% annualized, versus +3.7% expected. Friday's publication of a PPI excluding food and energy that was not only above expectations (2% vs. 1.6% annualized) but also up on the previous month (1.7% revised figure) added a further layer. The next deadline is February 29, with the publication of the PCE Core, the Fed's preferred indicator of price trends. Stay tuned.
  • Crypto. Bitcoin (BTC) is continuing on the same upward trend as last week, gaining 8% since Monday to reach $52,200 at the time of writing. Once again, this surge is largely due to the flow of capital into Bitcoin Spot ETFs in the US, with record one-day net inflows of $631.3 million into ETFs on Tuesday. At this price level, almost 90% of Bitcoin holders are now in a position of unrealized capital gains. Ether followed the same trend this week, even outperforming the market leader by climbing 12% to above the $2,800 mark.
Historical Chart
The countdown to Nvidia has started...
On Monday, equity markets in mainland China return after being off for a week for the Lunar New Year. However, Wall Street will be closed for George Washington's birthday. Other events of note are the minutes of the latest US central bank meeting (Wednesday) and flash PMI indicators from the major economies (Thursday). The last big corporate results are on the horizon: Walmart, Home Depot and Air Liquide (Tuesday), HSBC and the star of the moment Nvidia (Wednesday) or Nestlé and Mercedes (Thursday).
Things to read this week
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*The weekly movements of indexes and stocks displayed on the dashboard are related to the period ranging from the open on Monday to the sending time of this newsletter on Friday.
The weekly movements of commodities, precious metals and currencies displayed on the dashboard are related to a 7-day rolling period from Friday to Friday, until the sending time of this newsletter. These assets continue to quote on weekends.