Válogatás a nemzetközi intézmények és külföldi jegybankok publikációiból (2021.10.28-11.03.)

NEMZETKÖZI SZEMELVÉNYEK

Válogatás a nemzetközi intézmények és külföldi jegybankok publikációiból

2021. október 28. - november 03.

	TARTALOMJEGYZÉK
1.	MONETÁRIS POLITIKA, INFLÁCIÓ ...................................................................................................	3
2.	PÉNZÜGYI STABILITÁS, PÉNZÜGYI PIACOK ....................................................................................	4
3.	MIKROPRUDENCIÁLIS FELÜGYELET ÉS SZABÁLYOZÁS...................................................................	6
4.	FINTECH, KRIPTOVALUTÁK, MESTERSÉGES INTELLIGENCIA..........................................................	8
5.	ZÖLD PÉNZÜGYEK, FENNTARTHATÓ FEJLŐDÉS .............................................................................	8
6.	PÉNZFORGALOM, FIZETÉSI RENDSZEREK.....................................................................................	12
7.	MAKROGAZDASÁG .......................................................................................................................	12
8.	ÁLTALÁNOS GAZDASÁGPOLITIKA ................................................................................................	13
9.	KÖLTSÉGVETÉSI POLITIKA, ADÓZÁS .............................................................................................	16
10.	SZANÁLÁS......................................................................................................................................	16
11.	STATISZTIKA ..................................................................................................................................	16
12.	PÉNZÜGYI ISMERETTERJESZTÉS, PÉNZÜGYI KULTÚRA ................................................................	18

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1. MONETÁRIS POLITIKA, INFLÁCIÓ

Press Conference	ECB
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pressconf/2021/html/ecb.is211028~939f22970b.en.html	Speech
Christine Lagarde, President of the ECB, Luis de Guindos, Vice-President of the ECB, Frankfurt am Main,
28 October 2021.
Monetary strategy and inflation in Europe - what's new?	BIS
https://www.bis.org/review/r211102c.htm	Central Bankers'
Speech by Mr François Villeroy de Galhau, Governor of the Bank of France, at the SUERF Conference,	Speech
New York City, 12 October 2021.
Decisions taken by the Governing Council of the ECB (in addition to decisions setting interest rates),	ECB
29/10/2021	Press Release
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/govcdec/otherdec/2021/html/ecb.gc211029~2a1065fb22.en.html
ECB monetary policy decisions, 28/10/2021	ECB
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/pr/date/2021/html/ecb.mp211028~85474438a4.en.html	Press Release
The natural rate of interest through a hall of mirrors, 02/11/2021	BIS
https://www.bis.org/publ/work974.htm	Working Paper
Prevailing justifications of low-for-long interest rates appeal to a secular decline in the natural interest
rate, or r-star, due to factors outside monetary policy's control. The authors propose informational
feedback via learning as an alternative explanation for persistently low rates, where monetary policy
plays a crucial role. The authors extend the canonical New Keynesian model to an incomplete
information setting where the central bank and the private sector must learn about r-star and infer each
other's information from observed macroeconomic outcomes. An informational feedback loop emerges
when each side underestimates the effect of its own action on the other's inference, leading to large
and persistent changes in perceived r-star disconnected from fundamentals. Monetary policy, through
its influence on the private sector's beliefs, endogenously determines r-star as a result. The authors
simulate a calibrated model and show that this 'hall of mirrors' effect can explain much of the decline
in real interest rates since 2008.
Keywords: natural rate of interest, learning, misperception, overreaction, dispersed information, long-
term rates, demand shocks, monetary policy shocks
Optimal monetary policy mix at the zero lower bound, 28/10/2021	BIS
https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/-/media/boe/files/working-paper/2021/optimal-monetary-policy-	Research Hub
mix-at-the-zero-lower-bound.pdf	Working Paper
Long-term asset purchases carried out by central banks increase the consumption volatility of
households holding long-term debt. For this reason, monetary authorities should not just aim at
stabilising inflation and the output gap but also mitigate the volatility of their balance sheet. In response
to negative demand shocks at the zero lower bound (ZLB), the optimal monetary policy consists of a mix
of forward guidance and mild adjustments in the balance sheet. The presence of balance-sheet policies
reduces the optimal ZLB duration and significantly improves social welfare. Mitigating the effectiveness
of forward guidance calls for a more substantial balance-sheet expansion and a shorter ZLB duration. If
a central bank only aims to stabilise inflation and the output gap, welfare losses are significantly larger
than under the optimal policy and balance-sheet policies only improve welfare if the weight on output-
gap stabilisation is relatively large. Last, simple implementable policy rules can achieve welfare
outcomes close to those under the optimal policy.
Keywords: optimal monetary policy, unconventional monetary policy, quantitative easing, forward
guidance

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ECB should follow Fed's transparency example, 03/11/2021	OMFIF
https://www.omfif.org/2021/11/ecb-should-follow-feds-transparency-	Commentary
example/?utm_source=update&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=update+email
Twenty months into Covid-19, the European Central Bank is deliberating the end of the pandemic
emergency purchase programme. David Marsh, chairman, OMFIF, spoke to Der Spiegel about how
President Christine Lagarde has steered the central bank through this crisis, how she has calmed
dissonance among factions of the governing council and possible choices for the next Bundesbank
president.

2. PÉNZÜGYI STABILITÁS, PÉNZÜGYI PIACOK

Banking sector resilience - the post-pandemic outlook	ECB/SSM
https://www.bankingsupervision.europa.eu/press/speeches/date/2021/html/ssm.sp211102~65ff399	Speech
586.en.pdf?623e62557caf2cb516146b7b3f532c38
Presentation by Andrea Enria, Chair of the Supervisory Board of the ECB, at the 9th FIN-FSA conference
"EU financial markets today and in the future" organised by the Finnish Supervisory Authority, 2
November 2021.
Taking a system-wide perspective: the key to financial resilience	FSB
https://www.fsb.org/wp-content/uploads/S021121.pdf	Article
Article by FSB Chair Randal K. Quarles in the magazine Italy: The Rome Summit published by the G20
Research Centre at the University of Toronto, 3 November 2021.
Annual Update on SDR Trading Operations, 28/10/2021	IMF
https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/Policy-Papers/Issues/2021/10/26/Annual-Update-on-SDR-	Publication
Trading-Operations-498096
This paper provides an update on the status of the SDR trading market and operations. In over three
decades, SDRs have been exchanged for freely usable currencies in transactions by agreement primarily
through the Voluntary Trading Arrangements (VTAs). The VTAs are bilateral arrangements between the
Fund and SDR participants or prescribed holders, in which the VTA members agree to buy and sell SDRs
within certain limits. A fraction of transactions by agreement-sales or acquisitions of SDRs-were
arranged directly between parties.
ETFs, Illiquid Assets, and Fire Sales, 03/11/2021	BIS
https://www.bis.org/publ/work975.htm	Working Paper
The authors document several novel facts about exchange-traded funds (ETFs) holding corporate bonds.
First, the portfolio of bonds that are exchanged for new or existing ETF shares (called creation or
redemption baskets) often represents a small fraction of ETF holdings - a fact that the authors call
"fractional baskets." Second, creation and redemption baskets exhibit high turnover. Third, creation
(redemption) baskets tend to have longer (shorter) durations and smaller (larger) bid-ask spreads
relative to holdings. Lastly, ETFs with fractional baskets exhibit persistent premiums and discounts,
which is related to the slow adjustment of NAV returns to ETF returns. The authors develop a simple
model to show that an ETF's authorized participants (APs) can act as a buffer between the ETF market
and the underlying illiquid assets, and help mitigate fire sales. The authors' findings suggest that ETFs
may be more effective in managing illiquid assets than mutual funds.
Keywords: bonds, ETFs, fire sales, liquidity

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Non-bank financial intermediaries and financial stability, 29/10/2021	BIS
https://www.bis.org/publ/work972.htm	Working Paper
The heft of non-bank financial intermediaries (NBFIs) in the financial system has grown significantly after
the Great Financial Crisis of 2008. This paper reviews structural shifts in intermediation and how NBFIs
have shaped the demand and supply of liquidity in financial markets. The authors then lay out a
framework for the key channels of systemic-risk propagation in the presence of NBFIs, emphasising the
central role of leverage fluctuations through changes in margins. The debt capacity of an investor is
increasing in the debt capacity of other investors in the system, so that leverage enables greater
leverage, and spikes in margins can lead to system-wide deleveraging. In this framework, deleveraging
and `dash for cash' scenarios (as during the Covid-19 crisis) emerge as two sides of the same coin, rather
than being two distinct channels of stress propagation. These findings have implications for the design
of NBFI regulations and of central bank backstops.
Keywords: financial intermediation, non-banks,market-based finance, market liquidity, systemic risk
Enhancing the Resilience of Non-Bank Financial Intermediation: Progress report, 01/11/2021	FSB
https://www.fsb.org/2021/11/enhancing-the-resilience-of-non-bank-financial-intermediation-	Publication
progress-report/	+
	Press Release
This report describes progress to date and planned work by the FSB, as well as by standard-setting
bodies (SSBs) and other international organisations, to enhance the resilience of non-bank financial
intermediation (NBFI).
Related press release:
https://www.fsb.org/2021/11/fsb-updates-the-g20-on-its-work-to-enhance-resilience-in-non-bank-
financial-intermediation/
Lessons learnt from the COVID-19 pandemic from a financial stability perspective: Final report,	FSB
28/10/2021	Publication
https://www.fsb.org/2021/10/lessons-learnt-from-the-covid-19-pandemic-from-a-financial-stability-	+
perspective-final-report/	Letters
This final report updates the July interim report on the preliminary lessons learnt for financial stability
from the COVID-19 pandemic, and outlines actions by the FSB and other standard-setting bodies (SSBs)
in response to those lessons. The update reflects feedback from external stakeholders and the FSB's
Regional Consultative Groups, recent studies in this area, and progress made in relevant international
initiatives.
Related letters:
https://www.fsb.org/2021/10/fsb-chairs-letter-to-g20-leaders-october-2021/
https://www.fsb.org/2021/10/fsb-chair-reports-to-g20-leaders-ahead-of-the-rome-summit/
Macro Notes: EM Local Rates - Exposed to Global Risk Factors, 03/11/2021	IIF
https://www.iif.com/Publications/ID/4644/Macro-Notes-EM-Local-Rates--Exposed-to-Global-Risk-	Publication*
Factors
EM local market returns react more to global factors than during past stress episodes. However, they
remained stable in 2021, and a "Taper Tantrum 2.0" did not materialize. Nonetheless, EM local markets
continue to lag EM credit which has largely recovered. We expect investors to remain cautious toward
these assets due to inflation concerns. The so-called "transitory" factors behind global and EM inflation
are likely to linger.
IIF Capital Flows Tracker - November 2021, 02/11/2021	IIF
https://www.iif.com/Publications/ID/4648/IIF-Capital-Flows-Tracker--November-2021	Publication*
Portfolio flows to EM stood at $29.8 bn in September. Equity and debt flows were $3.6 bn and $26.2
bn. China equity posted $1.4 bn in inflows.

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