Draghi, Powell and Trump. Yesterday, the ECB President said that further stimulus measures would be put in place if inflation continues to move away from the 2% target. Draghi's accommodating speech did not please Trump, who accused him of unfair competition and exchange rate manipulation on Twitter. Today, it is Powell's turn to speak. Markets are expecting the status quo but are waiting for details on future adjustments. They anticipate, at more than 80%, a next rate cut in July.


A rumor circulated yesterday and it is certainly not random. Bloomberg said that the White House had studied earlier this year the possibility of dismissing the Fed President. This information has not been confirmed (or denied) by Larry Kudlow, the president's economic advisor. Could this be a reminder from Trump, who is waiting for the Fed to cut rates?

Beijing and Washington are renewing the dialogue. Yesterday Donald Trump reported on Twitter that he had a very good phone conversation with the Chinese president, adding that they were going to have a long G20 side meeting in Japan next week and that their teams were going to start talks before their meeting. Xi Jinping is quoted as saying in this telephone conversation that "China and the United States will both benefit from cooperation, and will lose by fighting each other".

#Trump202020. Trump travelled to Orlando, Florida, where he officially launched his campaign for re-election in 2020 and performed in front of 20,000 spectators. The president stressed the need to strengthen border security and spent most of his time tackling his opponents - including the Democrats - whom he accused of "moral cowardice" and "wanting to destroy the American dream".


The USMCA is the strongest and most important trade agreement in the history of the United States, said Robert Lighthizer, the U.S. trade representative before the Senate Finance Committee. He pointed out that the recently renegotiated new free trade agreement between the United States, Canada and Mexico reflects the ideas and reflections of Republican and Democratic MPs. It will "regulate the digital economy, financial services, intellectual property, etc. and will help to stop the exodus of jobs in the manufacturing sector and bring many back to the United States". This new NAFTA should be ratified soon.

Economic statistics. In the United States, housing starts fell in May (to 1.27 million from a revised 1.28 million in April). Building permits remained unchanged, (1.29 million). In Japan, the trade deficit widened in May (-609,090 million yen), due to a further decline in exports.

In other news. OPEC and its partners would have agreed to postpone their meeting, initially scheduled for June, to July 1 and 2. The Central Bank of Brazil is expected to maintain its key interest rate at 6.5% today, its historic low. Yesterday, the OAT briefly went into negative territory, reaching a low of -0.004%. In Europe, borrowing rates in Sweden, the Netherlands, Germany and Switzerland are currently negative.