OPENING CALL
Stock futures rose early on Monday as investors considered the potential implications of the assassination attempt on Donald Trump.
Bets on a Trump victory in the November presidential election have increased sharply, data from betting marketplace PredictIt show. That has put the "Trump trade" back in focus for investors again.
Signs of that trade started to take shape, with shares of Trump Media & Technology rising nearly 70% premarket.
The price of bitcoin rose beyond $62,000. Trump has cast himself as a pro-crypto candidate, and is expected to speak at the Bitcoin 2024 conference later this month.
OCBC said the growing chances of Trump winning the election due to sympathy votes could contribute to short-term market volatility.
There is market uncertainty, but a Trump victory may not be a "gloom and doom" scenario for markets, OCBC said.
Much depends on which party secures a clear victory in Congress, which will provide more certainty. The markets will be watching Trump's comments this week regarding his policy ideas, it added.
Earnings season also revs up this week, with results due from Goldman Sachs and BlackRock before market open. Overall, analysts expect S&P 500 companies to report a fourth straight quarter of earnings growth, according to FactSet.
Overseas Markets
Hong Kong's Hang Seng fell sharply, while the Shanghai Composite ticked higher. Data showed China's economic growth slowed sharply last quarter.
Europe's Stoxx 600 fell, dragged down by European luxury companies including Burberry and Swatch Group.
More Premarket Movers
Alphabet is in advanced talks to acquire cybersecurity startup Wiz for roughly $23 billion, WSJ reported. Alphabet shares edged higher premarket.
Apple gained 1.6%. Shipments of iPhones rose 1.5% in the second quarter from a year earlier to 45.2 million units, according to preliminary data from research firm International Data Corp., behind Samsung's 53.9 million units, which gained 0.7%.
Coinbase Global gained more than 6% amid a rebound in crypto prices. Other Bitcoin-linked stocks including Marathon Digital and MicroStrategy also rallied.
Super Micro Computer will replace Walgreens Boots Alliance in the Nasdaq 100 index before the start of trading on July 22. Super Micro rose 2.4%.
Tesla rose more than 4% premarket, putting the stock on track to extend its climb. Tesla's stock has risen 25% in July, cutting nearly all its losses for the year.
Watch For:
Earnings from BlackRock, Goldman Sachs Group, Fedspeak from Jerome Powell
Today's Top Headlines/Must Reads:
- Stock Dudes Risk a Market Wipeout
- The Yield Curve Hasn't Been Alone in Predicting a Recession
- High Stakes for Investors as Fed Tries Curing Inflation Without Causing Recession
MARKET WRAPS
Forex:
The dollar edged higher, helped by falls in equities after data showed second-quarter Chinese economic growth slowed significantly, while the assassination attempt on Donald Trump had limited impact on markets, ING said.
"We are not observing any material turmoil in markets following Saturday's shooting in Pennsylvania, where Donald Trump was injured. It is too early to tell whether this can have implications for the [presidential] race."
Risks to the dollar are "quite balanced" this week, ING said, with investors awaiting upcoming economic data after last week's drop in U.S. inflation lifted chances of a September interest-rate cut.
Rabobank said that although the softening in economic data has continued, the assassination attempt on Trump has helped the dollar in the spot market.
Betting odds point to Trump winning the presidency in November and the market is focusing on prospects of inflationary tariffs and tax cuts, it added.
Bonds:
A potentially higher possibility of Donald Trump winning the election could drive up Treasury yields, especially long-dated yields, UniCredit Research said.
The prospects of a Trump win may also lift the dollar, it said. "On the other hand, we see this as neutral for corporate credit spreads."
Energy:
Oil prices edged down as the dollar gained, with investors speculating about the chances of Trump winning the upcoming U.S. election in the wake of the weekend shooting in Pennsylvania.
"The market needs a fresh catalyst to bring in a new round of sizeable speculative buying, particularly with demand concerns hanging over the market," ING said.
Metals:
Gold futures fell but remained above the $2,400 mark after the softer-than-expected U.S. inflation data on Thursday boosted the case for a dovish pivot towards easing monetary policy at the July Federal Reserve meeting, JPMorgan said.
Traders have fully priced in a September rate cut, consistent with JPM's commodity price expectations--which should be bullish for gold and silver going into the year-end.
This expected rate cut should have positive knock-on effects for base metals, too, JPM added.
RHB Retail Research said gold's underlying bullish trend is growing stronger, based on its bullish crossover on the daily chart.
TODAY'S TOP HEADLINES
Google Near $23 Billion Deal for Cybersecurity Startup Wiz
Google parent Alphabet is in advanced talks to acquire cybersecurity startup Wiz for roughly $23 billion, according to people familiar with the matter, in what would be its largest acquisition ever.
A deal could come together soon, assuming the talks don't fall apart, the people said.
How Startup Wiz Went From Zero to a Possible $23 Billion Sale to Google in Four Years
Wiz was founded four years ago by a quartet of former Israeli military officers with one goal: grow as fast as possible to become the dominant company in cloud cybersecurity, and then reap the reward.
Now Chief Executive Assaf Rappaport and his partners are on the verge of doing just that, as Google parent Alphabet is in advanced talks to purchase Wiz for $23 billion, The Wall Street Journal reported Sunday. It would be the largest exit for any tech startup since Rivian's $77 billion IPO in November 2021, according to Crunchbase. The sale price would be almost double what Wiz was valued at by its venture capital investors just two months ago.
The New Holy Grail for Weight-Loss Drugs Is Sleep Apnea
Whether millions of people will be able to afford one of the hot new weight-loss drugs could hinge on whether they cure the sleep apnea of people like Damon Sedgwick.
Sedgwick, a technology business analyst in Sydney, enrolled in a clinical trial in 2022 to test whether taking weekly injections of Eli Lilly's anti-obesity drug Zepbound would alleviate the sleep apnea that had plagued his nights for years.
Big Companies Get Boost in Tax Disputes
WASHINGTON-The Supreme Court's new limits on federal agencies' regulatory powers are rippling through the tax system, and they are poised to tilt some disputes against the government and toward large companies.
Judges or lawyers in at least five pending tax lawsuits-including cases involving FedEx and 3M-have already raised the June ruling in Loper Bright Enterprises v. Raimondo, which overturned a 40-year-old framework known as the Chevron precedent for how courts evaluate regulations.
U.S.-China Trade Strains Are Hitting the Mattress Market
Trade conflicts between the U.S. and China are heading to the bedroom.
Retailers and manufacturers say Chinese companies are flooding American homes with cheap mattresses despite repeated U.S. government efforts to stop them.
China's Lopsided Economy Loses Steam
SINGAPORE-China's economy slowed sharply in the second quarter, piling pressure on the country's leaders to act more aggressively to rev up growth as they gather in Beijing to chart the course of the economy over the next half-decade.
Gross domestic product expanded 4.7% in the second quarter compared with the same quarter a year earlier, China's National Bureau of Statistics said Monday. The result was weaker than the 5.3% growth rate recorded in the first quarter and lower than the 5.0% figure expected by economists polled by The Wall Street Journal.
Trump Shooting Spurs GOP Unity, Scrambles Biden Campaign Strategy
MILWAUKEE-The nation's political contrast could hardly be more stark: images of a defiant and bloodied Donald Trump surviving an assassination attempt cast against persistent questions about President Biden's mental sharpness and ability to stay in the race.
In an already turbulent contest, the jarring chaos witnessed in western Pennsylvania Saturday night-and the fear, anger and images it generated-are certain to alter the contours of a campaign where even small shifts of voters could prove decisive.
Write to ina.kreutz@wsj.com
TODAY IN CANADA
Earnings:
Corus Ent 3Q
PrairieSky Royalty 2Q
Economic Events (ET):
0830 May Monthly Survey of Manufacturing
0830 May New motor vehicle sales
0830 May Wholesale trade
1030 Bank of Canada Business Outlook Survey
Expected Major Events for Monday
12:30/CAN: May Monthly Survey of Manufacturing
12:30/US: Jul Empire State Manufacturing Survey
12:30/CAN: May New motor vehicle sales
12:30/CAN: May Wholesale trade
14:30/CAN: Bank of Canada Business Outlook Survey
All times in GMT. Powered by Kantar Media and Dow Jones.
Expected Earnings for Monday
3D Systems Corp (DDD) is expected to report $-0.11 for 1Q.
AMCON Distributing Co (DIT) is expected to report for 3Q.
Avalon Advanced Materials is expected to report for 3Q.
Ayala Pharmaceuticals Inc (ADXS) is expected to report $-1.95 for 1Q.
BlackRock Inc (BLK) is expected to report $9.65 for 2Q.
Buckle Inc (BKE) is expected to report.
Caldwell Partners International Inc (CWL.T) is expected to report for 3Q.
California First Leasing Corp (CFNB) is expected to report for 3Q.
Clearday Inc (CLRD) is expected to report for 1Q.
Corus Entertainment Inc - Class B (CJR.B.T,CJREF) is expected to report for 3Q.
CrossFirst Bankshares Inc (CFB) is expected to report $0.34 for 2Q.
(MORE TO FOLLOW) Dow Jones Newswires
07-15-24 0630ET
