Instituto Nacional de Estatística : The CPI annual average rate of change was 2.8% in 2012 and the rate of change on a year earlier was 1.9% in December

CONSUMER PRICE INDEX December 2012

11 January, 2013

The CPI annual average rate of change was 2.8% in 2012 and the rate of change on a year earlier was 1.9% in December

The average rate of change of the Portuguese Consumer Price Index (CPI) was 2.8% in 2012 (3.7% in 2011).
The CPI recorded an annual rate of change of 1.9% in December 2012. Excluding energy and unprocessed food, the annual rate was 1.3%. The CPI monthly rate of change was 0.0% (-0.3% in November and 0.0% in December 2011).
In 2012, the Portuguese Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) increased 2.8% comparing with 2011. In December, the HICP annual inflation rate increased to 2.1%, 0.1 percentage points (p.p.) below the rate estimated by Eurostat for the Euro area (0.3 p.p. below in November).

The Portuguese Consumer Price Index (CPI) annual average rate of change decreased to 2.8% in 2012 (3.7% in 2011), with energy prices recording a less intense increase in 2012, whereas restaurant prices accelerated due to the increase in the VAT rate.
In December 2012, the annual inflation rate measured by the CPI remained stable at 1.9%, comparing with
the previous month (see fig. 1).
The largest upward pressure on the overall annual change rate came from increases in the prices of the COICOP divisions 4 (Housing, water, electricity, gas and other fuels), 1 (Food and non-alcoholic beverages), 11 (Restaurants and hotels) and 7 (Transports).
The annual core inflation rate, measured by the CPI

excluding energy and unprocessed food products,

5,0%

4,0%

3,0%

2,0%

1,0%

0,0%

-1,0%

-2,0%

Fig. 1 - Consumer price and core inflation indices

(annual rate and 12-m onth moving average)

CPI (12 -month mo ving ave ra ge ) CPI (a nnua l rate) Core Inf lation (annual rate )

moved from 1.2% in November 2012 to 1.3%.
In December, the CPI monthly rate was 0.0% (-0.3%
in November 2012 and 0.0% in December 2011). The upward contribution resulting from changes in the prices of the COICOP division 9 (Recreation and culture) was offset by a reduction in division 3 (Clothing and footwear).
In December 2012, the Portuguese HICP annual rate increased to 2.1% (1.9% in November 2012). The HICP monthly rate of change was 0.2% (-0.4% and
0.1% respectively in the previous month and in December 2011). The HICP 12-month average rate decreased to 2.8% (2.9% in November 2012).

5,0%

4,0%

3,0%

2,0%

1,0%

0,0%

-1,0%

-2,0%

Fig. 2 - Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices

(Portugal and the Euro area)

5,0

4,0

3,0

2,0

1,0

0,0

-1,0

-2,0

In November 2012 the gap between the Portuguese
and the Euro area annual rate of change was -0.3 p.p. and it is estimated to have increased to -0.1 p.p. in December 2012 (see fig. 2).

Dif f e re nce Est ima te d diff erence Euro area (annual rate o f cha nge) Po rt uga l (annua l rate o f change

The January 2013 CPI/HICP will be released on February 13th2013

Consumer Price Index - December 2012

1/4

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Consumer Price Index
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is an indicator showing how the prices of a certain basket of goods and services bought by a "typical" consumer change over time. The CPI has been designed to capture price changes and not to measure price levels. Both the consumption pattern and the goods and services included in the CPI basket were derived from the year 2005/2006 Household Budget Survey and are updated annually with the most recent information on prices and quantities, if available. The CPI is compiled through the aggregation of seven regional price indexes and the goods and services included in the index are grouped according to the COICOP1classification.

Table 1: CPI/COICOP Index Divisions

01 Food and non-alcoholic beverages 07 Transports

02 Alcoholic beverages and tobacco 08 Communications

03 Clothing and footwear 09 Recreation and culture

04 Housing, water, electricity, gas and other fuels 10 Education

05 Furnishings, household equipment and routine maintenance of the house

11 Restaurants and hotels

06 Health 12 Miscellaneous goods and services

Monthly rate
The monthly rate is the change in the index of a certain month compared with the index of the previous month expressed as a percentage. Although up-to-date, this measure can be affected by seasonal and other effects.
Annual rate
The annual rate is the change in the index of a certain month compared with the index of the same month in the previous year expressed as a percentage. In the presence of a stable seasonal pattern, seasonal effects do not influence this measure.
12-month average rate
The 12-month average rate is the change in the average index of one year compared with the average index of the previous year expressed as a percentage. This moving average is less sensitive to transient changes in prices.
Core inflation index (all items CPI excluding unprocessed food and energy products)
The core inflation index is compiled by excluding the prices of unprocessed food and energy products from the all- items CPI. The primary objective of this index is to capture the underlying inflation pressures in the economy.
Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices
The Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) is compiled in each member state of the European Union for the purposes of inflation comparisons across EU countries, as required by the Treaty on European Union2. This index plays an important role as a guideline for the achievement of the European System of Central Banks primary objective: price stability. In 1998, the European Central Bank adopted the HICP as "the most appropriate price measure" for its definition of price stability in the Euro area3.
More information is available at http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/portal/page/portal/hicp/introduction.
Rounding rules
Starting from January 2011, the published values for the Portuguese CPI have more decimal places. The indices are rounded to three decimal places, and the rates of change are rounded to two decimal places. In practice, this change only affects the visible values, since all other calculations are performed using more precision and the values are rounded as a final step before publication. In this press release the descriptive analysis is based on rounded values to one decimal.

1COICOP - Classification of Individual Consumption by Purpose

2Article 109j and protocol on the convergence criteria referred to in that article.

3"AstabilityorientedmonetarypolicystrategyfortheESCB". ECB press notice released on 13 October 1998.

Consumer Price Index - December 2012 2/4

NACIONAL DE ESTATiSTICA STATISTICS PORTUGAL

Annexes:

CPI n:d:e of ehange (i ndex division and aIl it:en1s CPI)

2010

2011

2012

- 0 .24

2.10

3.20

4.4 0

7.94

4 .74

-1.66

- 3.93

- 5.24

4.4 3

6.66

8.72

1.6 0

1.17

- 0 .4 7

-1.35 4 .55 -1.9 5

4 .46 8.9 0 2.99

0 .35 3.27 0 .4 6

-0 .19

0 .96

0 .91

2.77

2.0 5

1.50

1.23

1.41

4.4 7

0 .5 3

1.79

1.11

1.4 0

3.6 5

2.77

2010 D ece mb e r

2.8 5 6 .79 -1.81

5.39

1.50

- 2.13

A nnu a l r a t e

6 .58

-1.98 0 .51 2.01 1.86 0 .66 2.52

2011 J a nu a ry

2.26

6 .15

- 6 .0 9

6.31

0 .55

3.18 9 .86

2.6 0 2.21

2.13

2.14

1.14

3.6 0

Fe bru a ry

M a r ch

A pr ii M a y Jun e Ju l y

A u g u st

Se pte mb e r

Octo b e r

N ove mb e· r

D ece mb e r

2.38

2.70

2.38

2.49

1.64

1.71

1.37

1.82

2.18

2.0 6

2.20

8.30

8.78

9 .55

9 .4 7

9 .71

8.87

8.01

7.34

7.24

6 .5 0

5.5 9

- 8.4 5

-1.4 6

-1.5 0

- 2.0 2

-2.55

- 6 .93

-11.96

-1.71

-1.51

-1.5 2.

- 3.8 0

6.12

5.70

5.55

5.36

5.31

4 .78

4 .80

4 .71

10 .70

10 .55

9.9 0

0 .78

0 .88

1.0 6

1.32

1.39

1.66

1.37

1.4 3

1.39

1.23

0 .97

3 . 33

3.30

3.81

3.52

2.61

4 .64

4.49

5.81

5.94

5.49

7.4 6

9 .58

9 .89

10 .34

9 .51

8.72

8.0 3

8.56

9 .21

8.98

8.19

6 .0 6

3 . 13

4 .70

4 .34

3.97

3.29

2.52

2.51

2.39

2.12

2..14

2.23

1.77

1.67

1.55

1.76

1.31

0 .86

0 .50

- 0 .15

-0 .16

-0 .20

0 .50

2.11

2.10

2.16

2.15

2.18

2.17

2..23

2.13

1.82

1.74

1.74

1.94

2.0 6

1.64

1.30

1.32

1.0 5

1.0 3

1.25

0 .9 5

1.0 3

1.20

1.35

2.01

1.9 5

2.14

2.01

2.14

2.0 9

2.0 2

1.79

1.39

1.5 2

3.5 6

4 .0 2

4 .04

3.84

3.41

3.15

2.91

3.55

4.20

3.93

3.61

2012 J a nu a ry

3.32

4.4 8

- 3.5 9

9.57

- 0 .0 3

5.85

4 .50

0 .34

-0 .41

1.63

3 . 36 1.70

3.51

Fe bru a ry

M a r ch

A pr ii M a y Jun e Ju l y

A u g u st

Se pte mb e r

Octo b e r

N ove mb e· r

D ece·mb e· r

3.44

2.92

2.83

2.64

3.34

4 .04

3.2.7

2.93

3.18

3.29

3.21

2.4 5

4.4 3

4 .81

4 .89

4 .72

5.78

5.22

5.14

5.18

4 .92

4 .79

- 2.73

- 5.97

- 5.89

- 5.47

- 5.31

- 5.00

-4 .30

- 7.35

- 5.79

- 5.5 9

-4 .84

9.61

9.77

9.9 0

10 .04

10 .04

10 .35

10 .4 7

10 .8 5

4 .88

4 .81

5.0 2

- 0 .39

- 0 .34

- 0 .25

- 0 .22

- 0 .6 0

- 0 .8 0

- 0 .55

- 0 .75

- 0 .62

- 0 .6 5

- 0 .4 5

4 .19

3.4 7

2.41

0 .67

- 0 .15

- 2.0 6

- 2.0 3

-1.8 0

- 2.23

-2.00

-1.77

5.14

4 .70

3.69

2.72

2.31

2.10

3.84

3.78

3.27

1.64

1.67

0 .12

0 .31

0 .25

- 0 .0 7

0 .73

0 .4 7

0 .50

0 .67

0 .69

0 .69

0 .78

0 .4 5

- 0 .14

0 .44

- 0 .04

0 .50

0 .89

1.33

2.17

1.87

2.0 5

1.81

1.6 0

1.58

1.56

1.55

1.52

1.52

1.4 2.

1.4 8

1.33

1.4 3

1.42

4 .01

3.79

4 .27

4 .6 5

4 .62

4 .98

5.0 8

4 .87

4 .76

4 .72

4 .5 3

1.75

1.29

1.44

1.41

1.27

0 .8 5

1.04

0 .94

0 .6 0

0 .67

0 .36

3.6 0

3.15

3.01

2.70

2.71

2.77

3.0 8

2.88

2.13

1.89

1.92

Sym bols:: f es timated Po provisional :x not av ailable

.ot:e:

(1) The names of the divisions ar e given in the e:xplanatory notes .

INE - PortLJqal

Consumer Price Index - December 2012

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NACIONAL DE ESTATiSTICA STATISTICS PORTUGAL

HICP •·ate of change (inte•·national ·compm· .son)( 1

2009

2010

2011

2012

LO

2.1

3.1

0 .0

2.3

3.5

2.5

3.0

3.4

0 .6 1.1 0 .2 0 .2 1.3 - 0 .3 0 .1 -1.7 0 .8 0 .2 3.3 4 .2 0 .0 4 .0 1.8

1.2 2.2 1.2 2.7 4 .7 2.0 1.7 -1.6 1.6 2.6 -1.2 1.2 2.8 4 .7 2.0

2.1 2.7 2.5 5.1 3.1 3.1 2.3 1.2 2.9 3.5 4 .2 4 .1 3.7 3.9 2.4

LO

0 .9

2.5

0 .4 4 .0 -0.'9• 5.6 0 .9

1.7 2..7 ll .4 6 .1 2.1

3.6 3.9 3.• 6 5.8 2.1

2.8

0 .9

0 .7

4 .1

1.6 1.9 2..2.

1.7 1.9 3.3

3.3 1.4 4 .5

2010 D ece mb e r

2.2

2.7

3.4 4.4

Annua l rate

2.3 2.8 1.9 5.4 5.2 2.9 2.0 - 0 .2 2.1 1.9 2.4 3.6 3.1 4 .6 4 .0

1.8 2.2 2.9 2.4 7.9 2.2

1.3

2.8 2.1 3.7

2011 J a nua ry Fe bruary Ma rch

Ap rii May June July August

Septe mbe r

Octobe r Nove mb e r Dece mbe r

2.7

2.9

3.1

3.2

3.1

2..9

3.0

3.3

3.4

3.3

3.0

3.7

3.5

3.5

.:>• .:>

3.1

3.4

4 .0

3.4

3.4

3.4

3.7

3.2

4 .3

4 .6

4 .6

3.4

3.5

3.4

3.1

2.9

3.0

2.6

2.0

1.9 2.6 2.0 5.1 4 .9

1.9 2.6 2.2 5.5 4 .2

1.9 2.5 2.3 5.1 4 .3

1.6 2.8 2.7 5.4 3.7

2.0 3.1 2.4 5.5 3.1

1.9 2.9 2.4 4 .9 3.1

1.9 3.0 2.6 5.3 2..1

2.1 2.4 2.5 5.6 1.4

2.1 2.4 2.9 5.4 2.9

2.6 2.7 2.9 4 .7 2.9

2.9 2.5 2.8 4.4 2.8

2.8 2.4 2.3 4 .1 2..2.

3.0

3.4

3.3

3.5

3.4

3.0

3.0

2.7

3.0

3.0

2.9

2.4

2.0

1.8

2.2

2.2

2.2

2..3

2.1

2.4

2.4

2.5

2.7

2..7

0 .2 1.9 3.0 3.5

0 .9 2.1 3.1 3.8

1.2 2.8 3.2 4 .1

1.5 2.9 3.5 4 .3

1.2 3.0 4 .1 4 .8

1.1 3.0 4 .5 4 .7

1.0 2.1 3.5 4 .2

1.0 2.3 2.7 4 .6

1.3 3.6 2.5 4 .5

1.5 3.8 3.2 4 .3

1.7 3.7 4 .0 4 .0

1.4 3.7 4 .2 3.9

2..8 3.4 4 .0

3.0 3.9 4 .2

3.7 4 .0 4 .6

4.4 4 .0 4.4

5.0 3.8 3.9

4 .8 3.8 3.5

4 .6 3.2 3.1

4.4 3.7 3.5

4 .7 3.8 3.7

4 .2 3.8 3.8

4.4 4 .0 4 .3

3.5 3.4 4 .1

3.3

2.7

2.8

2.4

2.5

3.1

2.4

2.5

2.8

2..5

1.7

1.5

1.9

2.0

1.9

2.1

2.3

2.3

3.2

3.2.

3.0

2.8

2.6

2.5

2.5

3.1

3.3

3.7

3.7

3.7

3.8

3.7

3.9

3.8

3.9

3.4

3.5

3.3

4 .0

4 .1

4 .3

3.7

3.6

4 .0

3.5

3.8

4.4

4 .5

7.0

7.6

8.0

8.4

8.5

8.0

4 .9

4 .3

3.5

3.6

3.5

3.2

2..3

2.0

2.4

2.0

2..4

1.6

1.1

1.2

2.3

2.9

2.8

2..1

3.2

3.5

3.8

3.9

4 .2

4 .1

3.8

4 .1

4.4

4 .6

4 .8

4 .6

3.1

3.5

3.5

3.4

3.4

3.4

3.7

3.5

3.5

3.2

3.2

2.6

1.4 4 .0

1.2 4.4

1.4 4 .0

1.8 4 .5

1.7 4 .5

1.5 4 .2

1.6 4.4

1.6 4 .5

1.5 5.2

1.1 5.0

1.1 4 .8

0 .4 4 .2

2012 J a nuary

2.7

2..9

3.3

1.9

3.8 2.8 2.3 4 .7

2..1

2.0

2.6

1.3

3.4 3.1

3.4 3.4 3.2 5.6

1.7

2.9

2.9 4 .1

3.4

2.8

2.3

4 .1

3.0

0 .7 3.6

Fe bruary

Ma rch Ap rii May June July August

Se pte mb e r

Octobe r Nove mbe r Dece mbe r

2.7

2.7

2.•6

2.4

2.4

2.4

2.•6

2.•6

25

2.2Pio

2.2f

2..9

2.9

2..7

2.5

2.5

2.5

2.7

2..7

2..6

2.4 f

x

3.3

3.1

2.9

2.6

2..2

2..0

2.6

2.6

2.6

2.2

x

2..0

1.7

2..0

1.8

1.6

2.4

3.1

3.4

3.0

2.7

x

4 .0 2.7 2.5 4.4

4 .2 2.7 2.3 4 .7

4 .0 2.3 2.2 4 .3

3.5 2.1 2.2. 4 .1

3.8 2.2 2.0 4.4

3.3 2.1 1.9 4 .1

3.4 2.6 2.2 4 .2

3.5 2.5 2.1 4 .1

3.6 2.3 2.1 4 .2

2.8 2.2 1.9 3.8

x x x x

1.7

1.4

1.5

0 .9

LO

0 .9

1.2

0 .3

0 .9

0 .4

x

1.9

1.8

2.0

1.9

1.8

2.2

2.7

3.5

3.5

3.0

x

2.5

2.6

2..4

2.3

2.3

2.2

2.4

2.2

2.1

1.6

x

1.6

2.2

1.9

1.9

1.9

2.0

2.6

2.4

2.1

1.6

x

3.4 3.1

3.8 3.5

3.7 3.6

3.5 3.7

3.6 2.9

3.6 3.8

3.3 4 .5

3.4 3.6

2.8 2.6

2.6 1.4

x x

3.3

3.2.

2.8

2..3

2..1

1.9

1.9

1.9

1.6

1.5

x

3.7 3.3 5.8

3.7 2.9 5.5

3.3 3.0 5.6

2..6 2.7 5.4

2.6 2.6 5.6

2.9 2.7 5.7

3.4 2.8 6.0

3.3 3.2 6.4

3.2 3.2 6.0

2.8 2.7 5.3

x x x

2.6

2.6

3.8

3.7

4.4

4 .2

3.2

2.9

3.2

3.6

x

2.9

2.9

2..8

2.5

2.5

2.6

2.5

2.5

3.3

3.2

x

2.6 4.4

2.6 3.9

2.3 4 .0

2.2 3.6

2.2 4 .2

2.1 4 .0

2.3 3.8

2.8 3.8

2.9 3.4

2.9 Po 2.7

x x

3·.• 6

3.ll

2. '9•

2.7

2.7

2.8

3.2

2. '9

2.ll

ll .'9

2.ll

2.7

2.5

1.9

2.0

2.2

3.1

4 .0

5.4

5.0

4.4

x

2.8

2.4

2..9

2..4

2.4

2.6

3.1

3.7

3.2

2.8

x

4 .0

3.9

3.7

3.4

3.7

3.8

3.8

3.8

3.9

3.5

x

3.0

2.9

3.0

3.1

2.9

3.1

3.. 3

3.4

3.5

3.2

x

1.0 3.4

1.1 3.5

1.0 3.0

0 .9 2.8

0 .9 2..4

0 .7 2.6

0 .9 2.5

1.0 2.2

1.2 2.7

0 .8 x

x x

Syrnbol s: f estimated Po provisional Re r evised x not available

( l) Fr om Januar y 2006 om• ards : base 100 = 2005; index r ates of change calculated based on indexes r ounded up to t:>No decimai places .

(2.) r.,ember States belonging to the Eur o Area : EA - 13 until December 200 7,EA -15 until December 2.008 Oncluding Malta and Cyprus),EA - 16 from Januar y 2.009 ,EA -16 from January 20 11 Oncluding Estonia). (3) Eur opea n ndex of Consumer Prices : EU-15 until Aprii 2.004,EU -2.5 until December 2006 and EU-2.7 on•Nar ds .

Sou r·oe: II'JE..Por tugal and Eurostat.

•Cod e .a bbrev a t ons of t:he r·1ernber St:.at:es:

Consumer Price Index - December 2012

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