Could West Africa's 'Brexit' spell trouble for the region?

STORY: Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger have said they are quitting West Africa's economic and political bloc ECOWAS.

The move, by three countries who underwent coups in recent years, could potentially reverse decades of integration - with profound implications for the region.

Firstly there's ECOWAS.

Despite sanctions, negotiations and threats of military intervention - the 15-member bloc had already not managed to push Niger, Burkina Faso and Mali into a timetable for returning to democracy.

"Yeah, this definitely weakens ECOWAS."

Andrew Lebovich is a research fellow at the Clingendael Institute's Conflict Research Unit.

"So already ECOWAS appeared very weak. Some people saw ECOWAS, and see ECOWAS, as very ineffectual. And so certainly this undermines ECOWAS even more."

As they announced their departure, the three junta-led countries accused ECOWAS of abandoning its founding ideals and falling under foreign influence.

But there could also be significant ramifications for Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger.

There's the region's trade and services flows - worth nearly $150 billion a year.

Niger, for example, relies on its richer neighbor and current ECOWAS chair Nigeria for 80% of its trade, according to Seidik Abba, president of the Paris-based CIRES think tank.

Quitting ECOWAS is the "silliest own goal since the United Kingdom voted for Brexit", said the head of macro-strategy at London-based FIM Partners, Charlie Robertson.

He said the three countries were already among the poorest in the world, and that together they accounted for just 8% of the bloc's GDP.

Now increased tariffs and new restrictions on the movement of goods, money and people could be on the way.

And that has a potential impact on millions of Malians, Burkinabes and Nigeriens who settled in neighboring states.

Ivory Coast alone is home to more than 5 million people from the three nations.

For now, those diasporas enjoy visa-free travel and the right to work.

But this dispute is also one with significance beyond West Africa's borders.

Russia has been expanding its regional influence at the expense of Nigeria, the United States and former colonial power France.

That includes through varying degrees of military cooperation with Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger, who had complained that ECOWAS offered little support to tackle jihadist insurgencies in the Sahel.

The process of leaving the bloc could take time, leaving the door open for negotiation.

But for now what has been exposed through the ECOWAS crisis is a growing rift between Western-backed elected governments and military-run nations who are increasingly turning to the likes of Russia.