CAPIS Capital Institutional Services : Global Recap – 1/4/2016

Asian Headlines

Asian indices closed generally higher led by Japan with strong gains seen as that market reopened today. All Nikkei sectors rallied higher with the RE, Consumer Discretionary, Financial, and Material sectors all stronger by over 3%. Moves in other markets were more muted but Material and Energy names saw strength in the small cap market in mainland China.

Along with a weaker ¥, the Nikkei today was fueled today by a PMI Manufacturing reading that again ticked higher. The 52.4 reading was ahead of the prior 51.9 result and is the fourth month of growth. Within the number new orders (1 year high) and production saw gains with input prices up at the quickest pace in a year and a half. Positive comments from officials also helped as the BOJ's Kuroda noted easing will continue as the economy is at a critical point to end deflation. Takata +17.5% again rallied with the Wall Street Journal noting a settlement announcement is just around the corner. Using its own semiconductors Renesasrose 13% after the Nikkei said they developed an autonomous driving car.

In China the Yuan mid point was set at its lowest level since 2008 with continued concern noted about accelerating outflows. Stress tests have reportedly occurred to look at scenarios concerning outflows and the currency. Also, PBoC Songcheng noted with the depreciation of the CNY some firms may buy foreign currencies well ahead of when debt payments are due. China Railway chugged 2.7% higher after Nomura raised the name to buy from Neutral. An upgrade to Buy at UBS also buoyed China Shenhua Energy +3.3% with the bank noting cautiousness on coal prices. They are positive though on railway volumes and upped eps forecasts on higher expected coal prices.

Financials led Down Under with RE names weaker. To the upside The Strait Times said ANZ Bank +.9% will sell their 20% stake in Shanghai Rural Commercial Bank for A$1.84B. The sale should drive their Tier 1 capital ratio up by 40 bps with China Cosco Shipping +.4% and Shanghai Sino-Poland each acquiring 10%.

European Headlines

After a better start indices have curtailed gains with flattish returns seen across the region. Banks and Telecoms show small gains while the Autos and Basic Resources sectors slips by over a percent. Retail names are better offered today as well. Post the generally better PMI Manufacturing data points Monday, Service and Composite readings today for the region are ahead of estimates. CPI continues to work higher with small gains seen as well leading to further speculation on when QE could be curtailed. The € is stronger, moving back above 1.04 vs the Dollar after briefing plunging through 1.035 at yesterday's US equity open. Volumes are running inline with the recent month's turnover.

Weighing on the retail space today Next -12% gave a disappointing outlook noting Christmas sales missed. They see pretax profit over the next year at £680-780M vs prior expectations of £784M. Marks & Spencer -4.2%, Debenhams -5.5%.

Ryanair's +2.7% stock price is ascending today after noting their December load factor moved up to 94% vs the 91% seen a year ago. Davy put the stock on their list of 'conviction stocks' for 2017. Wizz Air +2.3% said passenger growth was 23% higher vs the previous year's level.

Media firm ITV -3.5% is off today with several issues being pointed out. Just a few days ago Sky reported the CEO and Finance chief could be on the way out. That is coupled with concerns over advertising spending (think Brexit and today's Next announcement). Lastly, the stock has had a nice rally as of late post the Fox bid for Sky -.2%.

To note, Sweden will be closed for a half day tomorrow with Austria (G'day Mate!), Finland, and Sweden all closed Friday.

		Event		Survey	Actual	Prior	Revised
SW	1)	Swedbank/Silf PMI Services	Dec	-	59.9	59.8	-
FR	2)	Consumer Confidence	Dec	99	99	98	99
SP	3)	Unemployment MoM Net ('000s)	Dec	-50	-86.8	24.8	-
SP	4)	Markit Spain Services PMI	Dec	54.7	55	55.1	-
SP	5)	Markit Spain Composite PMI	Dec	55	55.5	55.2	-
IT	6)	Markit/ADACI Italy Services PMI	Dec	52.6	52.3	53.3	-
IT	7)	Markit/ADACI Italy Composite PMI	Dec	53	52.9	53.4	-
FR	8)	Markit France Services PMI	Dec F	52.6	52.9	52.6	-
FR	9)	Markit France Composite PMI	Dec F	52.8	53.1	52.8	-
GE	10)	Markit Germany Services PMI	Dec F	53.8	54.3	53.8	-
GE	11)	Markit/BME Germany Composite PMI	Dec F	54.8	55.2	54.8	-
EC	12)	Markit Eurozone Services PMI	Dec F	53.1	53.7	53.1	-
EC	13)	Markit Eurozone Composite PMI	Dec F	53.9	54.4	53.9	-
SP	14)	Spain Reserves
UK	15)	Markit/CIPS UK Construction PMI	Dec	52.5	54.2	52.8	-
UK	16)	Net Consumer Credit	Nov	1.6b	1.9b	1.6b	1.7b
UK	17)	Net Lending Sec. on Dwellings	Nov	3.3b	3.2b	3.3b	3.2b
UK	18)	Mortgage Approvals	Nov	68.5k	67.5k	67.5k	67.4k
UK	19)	Money Supply M4 MoM	Nov	-	0.40%	1.10%	-
UK	20)	M4 Money Supply YoY	Nov	-	6.40%	6.60%	-
UK	21)	M4 Ex IOFCs 3M Annualised	Nov	7.50%	4.20%	6.90%	7.20%
EC	22)	CPI Estimate YoY	Dec	1.00%	1.10%	0.60%	-
EC	23)	CPI Core YoY	Dec A	0.80%	0.90%	0.80%	-
IT	24)	CPI EU Harmonized MoM	Dec P	0.20%	0.40%	-0.20%	-
IT	25)	CPI NIC incl. tobacco MoM	Dec P	0.30%	0.40%	-0.10%	-
IT	26)	CPI NIC incl. tobacco YoY	Dec P	0.30%	0.50%	0.10%	-
IT	27)	CPI EU Harmonized YoY	Dec P	0.30%	0.50%	0.10%	-
IR	28)	Unemployment Rate	Dec	-	7.20%	7.30%	-
NE	29)	CPI MoM	Dec	-	-	-0.30%	-
NE	30)	CPI YoY	Dec	-	-	0.60%	-
NE	31)	CPI EU Harmonized MoM	Dec	-	-	-0.60%	-
NE	32)	CPI EU Harmonized YoY	Dec	-	-	0.40%	-