BLS U S Bureau of Labor Statistics : Metropolitan Area Employment and Unemployment (Monthly)

For release 10:00 a.m. (EST) Wednesday, January 30, 2019

USDL-19-0138

Technical information:

Employment:	[phone] •[e-mail]• www.bls.gov/sae
Unemployment:	[phone] •[e-mail]• www.bls.gov/lau
Media contact:	[phone] •[e-mail]

METROPOLITAN AREA EMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT - DECEMBER 2018

Unemployment rates were lower in December than a year earlier in 250 of the 388 metropolitan areas, higher in 116 areas, and unchanged in 22 areas, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. A total of 89 areas had jobless rates of less than 3.0 percent and 3 areas had rates of at least 10.0 percent. Nonfarm payroll employment increased over the year in 61 metropolitan areas and was essentially unchanged in 327 areas. The national unemployment rate in December was 3.7 percent, not seasonally adjusted, down from 3.9 percent a year earlier.

Metropolitan Area Unemployment (Not Seasonally Adjusted)

In December, Ames, IA, had the lowest unemployment rate, 1.4 percent. El Centro, CA, and Yuma, AZ, had the highest unemployment rates, 17.3 percent and 15.4 percent, respectively. A total of 193 areas had December unemployment rates below the U.S. rate of 3.7 percent, 179 areas had rates above it, and 16 areas had rates equal to that of the nation. (See table 1 and map 1.)

The largest over-the-year unemployment rate decrease occurred in Ocean City, NJ (-2.2 percentage points). Twenty-five additional areas had rate decreases of at least 1.0 percentage point. Panama City, FL, had the largest over-the-year rate increase in December (+2.2 percentage points).

Of the 51 metropolitan areas with a 2010 Census population of 1 million or more, Nashville-Davidson- Murfreesboro-Franklin, TN, had the lowest unemployment rate in December, 2.3 percent. Cleveland-Elyria, OH, had the highest jobless rate among the large areas, 4.9 percent. Thirty-three large areas had over-the-year unemployment rate decreases, 15 had increases, and 3 had no change. The largest rate decreases occurred in Buffalo-Cheektowaga-Niagara Falls, NY (-1.4 percentage points), and Rochester, NY (-1.2 points). The largest over-the-year rate increase was in Denver-Aurora-Lakewood, CO (+0.8 percentage point).

Metropolitan Division Unemployment (Not Seasonally Adjusted)

Eleven of the most populous metropolitan areas are made up of 38 metropolitan divisions, which are essentially separately identifiable employment centers. In December, San Francisco-Redwood City-South San Francisco, CA, had the lowest rate among the divisions, 2.1 percent. Elgin, IL, had the highest division rate, 5.7 percent. (See table 2.)

In December, 30 metropolitan divisions had over-the-year unemployment rate decreases and 8 had increases. The largest rate decline occurred in Chicago-Naperville-Arlington Heights, IL (-1.3 percentage points). The largest over-the-year rate increase was in Elgin, IL (+1.3 percentage points).

Metropolitan Area Nonfarm Employment (Not Seasonally Adjusted)

In December, 61 metropolitan areas had over-the-year increases in nonfarm payroll employment and 327 were essentially unchanged. The largest over-the-year employment increases occurred in Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX (+116,400), New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA (+115,500), and Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX (+108,300). The largest over-the-year percentage gains in employment occurred in Midland, TX (+6.7 percent), Colorado Springs, CO (+5.5 percent), and Reno, NV (+5.3 percent). (See table 3 and map 2.)

Over the year, nonfarm employment rose in 39 of the 51 metropolitan areas with a 2010 Census population of 1 million or more, while employment was essentially unchanged in 12 areas. The largest over-the-year percentage increases in employment in these large metropolitan areas occurred in Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL (+4.0 percent), Phoenix-Mesa-Scottsdale, AZ (+3.7 percent), and Austin-Round Rock, TX, and Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX (+3.5 percent each).

Metropolitan Division Nonfarm Employment (Not Seasonally Adjusted)

In December, nonfarm payroll employment increased in 18 of the 38 metropolitan divisions over the year and was essentially unchanged in 20 divisions. The largest over-the-year increase in employment among the metropolitan divisions occurred in Dallas-Plano-Irving, TX (+88,600), followed by New York-Jersey City-White Plains, NY-NJ (+81,000), and Los Angeles-Long Beach-Glendale, CA (+60,000). (See table 4.)

The largest over-the-year percentage increases in employment occurred in San Rafael, CA (+3.7 percent), and Dallas-Plano-Irving, TX, and Seattle-Bellevue-Everett, WA (+3.4 percent each).

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The Regional and State Unemployment 2018 Annual Averages news release is scheduled to be released on Thursday, February 28, 2019, at 10:00 a.m. (EST). The State Employment and Unemployment news release for January 2019 is scheduled to be released on Monday, March 11, 2019, at 10:00 a.m. (EDT). The Metropolitan Area Employment and Unemployment news release for January 2019 is scheduled to be released on Friday, March 15, 2019, at 10:00 a.m. (EDT).

Upcoming Changes to Local Area Unemployment Statistics Data

Effective with the release of Regional and State Unemployment 2018 Annual Averages on Thursday, February 28, 2019, the civilian labor force and unemployment data for census regions and divisions and all states, the District of Columbia, and the modeled substate areas presented in tables 1 and 2 of this news release will be revised from 2014 to 2018 to incorporate updated inputs, new population controls, and reestimation of models. Subsequently, civilian labor force and unemployment estimates for all other metropolitan areas and metropolitan divisions will be revised to reflect updated inputs and adjustment to the new statewide estimates. These revised estimates will be published in conjunction with the March 2019 State Employment and Unemployment news release on Friday, April 19, 2019.

Upcoming Changes to Current Employment Statistics Data

Effective with the release of January 2019 estimates on Monday, March 11, 2019, all nonfarm payroll employment estimates for states and areas presented in tables 3 and 4 of this news release will be adjusted to 2018 benchmark levels.

Not seasonally adjusted data beginning with April 2017 and seasonally adjusted data beginning with January 2014 are subject to revision. Some seasonally adjusted series may be revised back to 1990.

Upcoming Change to Metropolitan Area Geography

Effective with the January 2019 issuance of this news release on Friday, March 15, 2019, estimates will be included for Twin Falls, ID, which the U.S. Office of Management and Budget designated as a new metropolitan area in 2017.

Technical Note

This release presents civilian labor force and unemployment data from the Local Area Unemployment Statistics (LAUS) program (tables 1 and 2) for 388 metropolitan statistical areas and metropolitan New England City and Town Areas (NECTAs), plus 7 areas in Puerto Rico. Estimates for 38 metropolitan and NECTA divisions also are presented. Nonfarm payroll employment estimates from the Current Employment Statistics (CES) program (tables 3 and 4) are provided for the same areas. State estimates were previously published in the news release State Employment and Unemployment, and are republished in this release for ease of reference. The LAUS and CES programs are both federal-state cooperative endeavors.

Civilian labor force and unemployment-from the LAUS program

Definitions. The civilian labor force and unemployment data are based on the same concepts and definitions as those used for the official national estimates obtained from the Current Population Survey (CPS), a sample survey of households that is conducted for the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) by the U.S. Census Bureau. The LAUS program measures employed persons and unemployed persons on a place-of-residence basis. The universe for each is the civilian noninstitutional population 16 years of age and older. Employed persons are those who did any work at all for pay or profit in the reference week (typically the week including the 12th of the month) or worked 15 hours or more without pay in a family business or farm, plus those not working who had a job from which they were temporarily absent, whether or not paid, for such reasons as labor-management dispute, illness, or vacation. Unemployed persons are those who were not employed during the reference week (based on the definition above), had actively looked for a job sometime in the 4-week period ending with the reference week, and were currently available for work; persons on layoff expecting recall need not be looking for work to be counted as unemployed. The civilian labor force is the sum of employed and unemployed persons. The unemployment rate is the number of unemployed as a percent of the civilian labor force.

Method of estimation. Estimates for states, the District of Columbia, the Los Angeles-Long Beach-Glendale metropolitan division, and New York City are produced using time-series models with real-time benchmarking to national CPS totals. Model-based estimates are also produced for the following areas and their respective balances: the Chicago-Naperville-Arlington Heights, IL Metropolitan Division; Cleveland-Elyria, OH Metropolitan Statistical Area; Detroit-Warren-Dearborn, MI Metropolitan Statistical Area; Miami-Miami Beach-Kendall, FL Metropolitan Division; and Seattle-Bellevue-Everett, WA Metropolitan Division. Modeling improves the statistical basis of the estimation for these areas and provides important tools for analysis, such as measures of errors and seasonally adjusted series. For all other substateareas in this release, estimates are prepared through indirect estimation procedures using a building-block approach. Estimates of employed persons, which are based largely on "place of work" estimates from the CES program, are adjusted to refer to place of residence as used in the CPS. Unemployment estimates are aggregates of persons previously employed in industries covered by state unemployment insurance (UI) laws and entrants to the labor force from the CPS. The substate estimates of employment and unemployment, which geographically exhaust the entire state, are adjusted proportionally to ensure that they add to the independently estimated model-based area totals. A detailed description of the estimation procedures is available from BLS upon request.

Annual revisions. Civilian labor force and unemployment data shown for the prior year reflect adjustments made at the beginning of each year, usually implemented with the issuance of January estimates. The adjusted model-based estimates typically reflect updated population data from the U.S. Census Bureau, any revisions in other input data sources, and model re-estimation. All substate estimates then are re-estimated using updated inputs and adjusted to add to the revised model-based totals. In early 2015, a new generation of time-series models was implemented, resulting in the replacement of data back to the series beginnings. At the same time, enhancements were made to the substate estimation methodology, and more timely inputs from the American Community Survey were incorporated.

Employment-from the CES program

Definitions. Employment data refer to persons on establishment payrolls who receive pay for any part of the pay period that includes the 12th of the month. Persons are counted at their place of work rather than at their place of residence; those appearing on more than one payroll are counted on each payroll. Industries are classified on the basis of their principal activity in accordance with the 2017 version of the North American Industry Classification System.

Method of estimation. CES State and Area employment data are produced using several estimation procedures. Where possible these data are produced using a "weighted link relative" estimation technique in which a ratio of current-month weighted employment to that of the previous-month weighted employment is computed from a sample of establishments reporting for both months. The estimates of employment for the current month are then obtained by multiplying these ratios by the previous month's employment estimates. The weighted link relative technique is utilized for data series where the sample size meets certain statistical criteria.

For some employment series, the sample of establishments is very small or highly variable. In these cases,

a model-based approach is used in estimation. These models use the direct sample estimates (described above), combined with forecasts of historical (benchmarked) data to decrease volatility in estimation. Two different models (Fay-Herriot Model and Small Domain Model) are used depending on the industry level being estimated. For more detailed information about each model, refer to the BLS Handbook of Methods.

Annual revisions. Employment estimates are adjusted annually to a complete count of jobs, called benchmarks, derived principally from tax reports that are submitted by employers who are covered under state unemployment insurance (UI) laws. The benchmark information is used to adjust the monthly estimates between the new benchmark and the preceding one and also to establish the level of employment for the new benchmark month. Thus, the benchmarking process establishes the level of employment, and the sample is used to measure the month-to-month changes in the level for the subsequent months.

Seasonal adjustment. Payroll employment data are seasonally adjusted for states, metropolitan areas, and metropolitan divisions at the total nonfarm level. For states, data are seasonally adjusted at the supersector level as well. Revisions to historical data for the most recent 5 years are made once a year, coincident with annual benchmark adjustments.

Beginning with the release of January 2018 preliminary estimates, payroll employment data are seasonally adjusted concurrently, using all available estimates including those for the current month, to develop sample-based seasonal factors. Concurrent sample-based factors are created every month for the current month's preliminary estimate as well as the previous month's final estimate in order to incorporate real-time estimates. Previously, the sample-based seasonal factors were forecasted once annually at the beginning of the year and applied to the sample-based estimates for the 12 months of the year.

Reliability of the estimates

The estimates presented in this release are based on sample surveys, administrative data, and modeling and, thus, are subject to sampling and other types of errors. Sampling error is a measure of sampling variability-that is, variation that occurs by chance because a sample rather than the entire population is surveyed. Survey data also are subject to nonsampling errors, such as those which can be introduced into the data collection and processing operations. Estimates not directly derived from sample surveys are subject to additional errors resulting from the specific estimation processes used. The sums of individual items may not always equal the totals shown in the same tables because of rounding.

Use of error measures

Civilian labor force and unemployment estimates.

Measures of sampling error are not available for metropolitan areas or metropolitan divisions. Model-based error measures for states are available on the BLS website atwww.bls.gov/lau/lastderr.htm. Measures of nonsampling error are not available for the areas contained in this release. Information on recent data revisions for states and local areas is available online atwww.bls.gov/lau/launews1.htm.

Employment estimates. Changes in metropolitan area nonfarm payroll employment are cited in the analysis of this release only if they have been determined to be statistically significant at the 90-percent confidence level. Measures of sampling error for the total nonfarm employment series are available for metropolitan areas and metropolitan divisions atwww.bls.gov/web/laus/790stderr.htm. Measures of sampling error for more detailed series at the area and division level are available upon request. Measures of sampling error for states at the supersector level and for the private service-providing, goods-producing, total private and total nonfarm levels are available on the BLS website atwww.bls.gov/web/laus/790stderr.htm. Information on recent benchmark revisions is available online atwww.bls.gov/web/laus/benchmark.pdf.

Area definitions

The substate area data published in this release reflect the delineations issued by the U.S. Office of Management and Budget on July 15, 2015. Data reflect New England City and Town Area (NECTA) definitions, rather than county-based definitions, in the six New England States. A detailed list of the geographic definitions is available online atwww.bls.gov/lau/lausmsa.htm.

Additional information

Estimates of unadjusted and seasonally adjusted civilian labor force and unemployment data for states and seven substate areas are available in the news release State Employment and Unemployment. Estimates of civilian labor force and unemployment for all states, metropolitan areas, counties, cities with a population of 25,000 or more, and other areas used in the administration of various federal economic assistance programs are available online atwww.bls.gov/lau/. Employment data from the CES program are available on the BLS website atwww.bls.gov/sae/.

Information in this release will be made available to sensory impaired individuals upon request. Voice phone: [phone]; Federal Relay Service: [phone].