Arizona Is America's Covid-19 Hot Spot and on the Brink of Crisis

By Alicia A. Caldwell and Ian Lovett

Arizona has the highest Covid-19 infection rate in the U.S. and is on the brink of running out of space in crowded hospitals, according to public-health and hospital officials.

The state hit a record for new infections last week, with 11,324 in a single day. It has the highest per capita rate of new Covid-19 infections in the U.S., according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, and the highest rate of Covid-19 hospitalizations, according to the Covid tracking project.

As of Monday, roughly 16% of Covid-19 tests in the state were coming back positive, according to data compiled by Johns Hopkins University, and health officials estimate that one in 10 residents is currently infected.

"We're the hottest spot in the U.S. and among the hottest spots in the entire world," said Keith Frey, chief medical officer for hospital chain Dignity Health's Arizona division. "If we don't slow this down over the course of the next days and weeks, then we will be fully into that crisis zone."

Mr. Frey spoke at a press conference Wednesday where the heads of Arizona's largest health systems gathered to express how dire the situation has become.

As of Wednesday, 7% of Arizona's ICU beds were available, according to state data. Nearly 60% of all people hospitalized in Arizona have Covid-19 and close to 65% of ICU beds are being used for Covid-19 patients. That means patients with other conditions are being displaced, said Will Humble, executive director of the Arizona Public Health Association.

Mr. Humble estimated that if current trends continue, the Covid-19 situation in Arizona will in a few weeks be as bad as that in nearby Southern California, where ICU availability has been at 0% since December. Arizona has 19% more ICU beds, per capita, than California, according to the Kaiser Family Foundation.

Ross Goldberg, president of the Arizona Medical Association, said hospitals are preparing by converting nonspecialized units into Covid-19-only areas. "We're still seeing that Christmas surge," he said.

Throughout 2020, Arizona was home to some of the nation's most dramatic coronavirus waves and most intense debates over whether government-imposed restrictions on activity were the solution. The state followed the rest of the country in shuttering non-essential businesses after the pandemic took hold in mid-March.

By summer, a stay-at-home order had expired and cases jumped. In June, Republican Gov. Doug Ducey reversed a prior order barring local officials from implementing some Covid-19 restrictions, including mandating masks be worn in public places.

After a decline in the late summer, cases began climbing again in the fall, as they did in much of the country. On Oct. 1, Arizona had a seven-day average of 480 new cases a day. One month later, that rate had nearly tripled, and by the start of 2021, it had grown twelvefold.

In December, Mr. Ducey signed an executive order that allowed restaurants to expand outdoor dining but didn't ban indoor dining, as other hard-hit regions have done.

Representatives for the governor declined to comment and referred to his state-of-the-state address Monday, in which he said, "If we're really all in this together, then we have to appreciate that for many families 'lockdown' doesn't spell inconvenience; it spells catastrophe: zero income, inability to make a payment, eviction, foreclosure and real personal anguish."

Some local governments have issued their own stricter rules, however. Pima County, which includes Tucson and is the second-largest metro area in the state, issued a curfew from 10 p.m. to 5 a.m. in mid-December and has mandated the use of face coverings in public since June.

In December, a group of public-health officials sent a letter to Mr. Ducey, requesting he take more measures to close businesses like bars and nightclubs, and issue a statewide mask mandate.

Mr. Ducey has repeatedly declined to issue a statewide mandate, saying in December that it wasn't necessary, as there was "almost nowhere you can go in the state of Arizona and no part of our economy that you can participate in without wearing a mask."

At their press conference Wednesday, the hospital officials urged members of the public to stay home, wear masks in public and avoid large gatherings. They also said in-person schooling was dangerous. Mr. Ducey on Monday encouraged schools offering virtual learning to reopen.

Stephanie Jackson, chief clinical value officer at HonorHealth, begged Arizona residents to stay away from businesses that are legally open, particularly restaurants.

"Regardless of what the various messages are from a myriad of government officials...if you want to keep your friends and family safe, indoor dining at this time is not a good idea," Dr. Jackson said. "We have extremely widespread levels of Covid-19. So my advice to you would be to order out."

Write to Alicia A. Caldwell at [e-mail] and Ian Lovett at [e-mail]

(END) Dow Jones Newswires

01-15-21 0914ET