CLIMATE CHANGE SUPPLEMENT
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CLIMATE CHANGE
SUPPLEMENT
Disclaimer
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This document may contain forecasts about future events, which reflect only the expectations of the Company's management regarding future conditions of the economy, in addition to the industry in which it operates, the performance and financial results of the Company, among others.
The terms "anticipates", "believes",
"expects", "forecasts", "intends", "plans", "projects", "aims at", "should", as well as other similar terms, are intended to identify those predictions, which, evidently, involve risks and uncertainties foreseen or not by the Company (such as risks related to changes in general economic and
commercial conditions, prices of crude oil and other commodities, refining margins and current exchange rates, uncertainties inherent to estimates of our oil and gas resources and reserves, risks related to our Strategic Plan and our ability to implement it, events in the Brazilian and international political, economic, legal and social
scenarios, obtaining government approvals and licenses and our ability to obtain financing) and, consequently, are not guarantees of the Company's future results. Therefore, the results may differ from current expectations, and the reader should not rely exclusively on the information herein.
The Company to update presentations and forecasts in light of new information or future developments. The values reported for 2024 onwards are estimates. The goals, commitments, ambitions, and perspectives presented throughout this Climate Change Supplement may be affected by external and/or internal factors. The commitments presented herein do not constitute guarantees of future performance by the company and are
subject to assumptions that may not materialize, and to risks and uncertainties that are difficult predict. Among the factors that could cause future results to differ materially from our expectations, we refer to the factors described in the "Risk Factors" section on Form 20-F and on the Petrobras Reference Form referring to base date December 31, 2023.
Additionally, this document contains some financial indicators that are not recognized by BR GAAP or IFRS. These indicators do not have standardized meanings and may not be comparable to similarly described indicators used by other companies.
We provide these indicators because we use them as measures of the company's performance and, therefore, they should not be considered in isolation or as a substitute for other financial metrics that have been disclosed in accordance with BR GAAP or IFRS.
The performance results in emissions in 2023 presented in this Climate Change Supplement will still be verified by a third party, therefore, variations may occur, and no significant changes are expected.
This Climate Change Supplement follows the recommendations of the Task Force on Climate Related Financial Disclosures (TCFD), being structured according to the four thematic areas of the initiative: Governance; Strategy; Risk Management; Metrics and Targets.
Climate Change
Supplement WORLDWIDE SCENARIO AND BRAZILIAN CONTEXT
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Global Stocktake requires transforming the energy system Brazil has a distinct profile of emissions
Energy emissions predominate globally, in Brazil account for 23%
World GHG (%), 2022: 57,4 Bilion tCO2e
4,1
11,2 | Energy | |
10,8 | Process | |
7,5 | Agro | |
66,4 | ||
LULUCF | ||
Waste |
Brazil, GHG (%), 2020: 1,7 Bilion tCO2e
4,2
23,2 | Energy |
Process | |
38,0 | Agro |
6,1 | |
LULUCF | |
28,5 | Waste |
SIRENE/MCTI, 2024 (base 2020); BEN 2023 (EPE/MME, 2023), Emissions Report Gap 2023, UNEP
Climate Change
Supplement
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POSITIONING, STRATEGIES AND COMMITMENTS
Transparency,
Carbon Management and
Just Transition
O&G Competitiveness | Low Carbon business and |
Resilience and value of | Scope 3 |
fossil portfolio in Energy | Reduction of portfolio |
Transition | exposure to carbon risk |
The Pillars of Carbon Management and Climate Change
INTERNA
Climate Change
Supplement | POSITIONING, STRATEGIES AND COMMITMENTS | ||||||
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Transparency, | O&G Competitiveness | Low Carbon business and |
Resilience and value of | Scope 3 | |
Carbon Management and | ||
fossil portfolio in Energy | Reduction of portfolio | |
Just Transition | Transition | exposure to carbon risk |
The Pillars of Carbon Management and Climate Change
INTERNA
Climate Change Supplement
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POSITIONING, STRATEGIES AND COMMITMENTS
Our scenarios consider deceleration and retraction of O&G markets. All investment must be positive under our 3 scenarios.
We continue to invest in oil and gas, and project the peak of our production for the early 2030s.
Aligned with IEA's projections with greater participation of Latin America oil.
MMbpd
120
110
100
90
80
70 | New Discoveries | |||||
60 | ||||||
50 | Probable Development | |||||
40 | Under Production and Development | |||||
2010 | 2020 | 2030 | 2040 | 2050 |
Global Production forecast
Significant differences in production emissions from existing fields persist in 2023
INTERNA
Climate Change | PORTFOLIO FINANCIAL RESILIENCE ANALYSIS |
Supplement | |
- |
Negotiation scenario
STEPS | APS |
+18% | -6.6% |
7%
Brent Carbon Brent
-13%
Carbon
Commitment scenario
NZE -30%
-10%Brent
-20%Carbon
IEA Scenarios
STEPS - Stated Policies Scenario: Prevailing direction of
energy system progression : does not meet 2oC
APS - Announced Pledges Scenario (50% chance of 1.7oC)
NZE - Net Zero: Normative scenario to achieve net-zero CO2 emissions by 2050 (50% chance of 1.5oC)
All our E&P projects have positive NPV under price assumptions of APS
70% of our E&P projects have positive NPV under price assumptions of NZE
INTERNA
Climate Change
Supplement
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DIFFERENTIATED REGION
INTERNA
Climate Change
Supplement
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POSITIONING IN GROWING MARKETS
Ambitions
Operational Emissions (Scope 1 and 2)
Scope 3: Reducing exposure to carbon
Expected peak of fossil production in the early 2030s
- Net Zero by 2050
- 2022 level not to be exceeded in the five- year period (40% reduction since 2015)
- Near Zero Methane 2030
- Expanding renewable fuels supply
- Renewable electricity integrated with efficient and safe thermoelectricity
Potential to expand biofuel production capacity (by volume) by up to 4x between 2022 and 2030
Potential of 50% of total electricity generation capacity through renewable sources by 2030
Potential for up to 3% reduction in the portfolio's emissions intensity by 2030, measured in GHG emissions / energy contained in energy products (base year 2022)
Expand share of non-energy products which are transition-resilient
(e.g., lubricants, petrochemicals)
Emissions as a variable compensation metric for 100% of executives and employees
INTERNA
Climate Change | LOW CARBON INVESTMENTS | |
Supplement | ||
- | SCOPES 1 AND 2 | PORTFOLIO - SCOPE 3 |
Operational Emissions | Providing better products |
R&D in low-carbon
- Net Zero Ambition by 2050
- 2022 level not to be exceeded in the five-year period
- Near Zero Methane 2030
Potential of 50% of total electricity
generation capacity through renewable sources by 2030
Potential to expand biofuel production capacity (by volume) by up to 4x between 2022 and 2030
Expand share of non- energy products which are transition- resilient
US$ 3.9 billionUS$ 5.5 billion US$ 1.5 billion
DECARBONIZATION | LOW CARBON | BIOREFINING |
OF OPERATIONS | ENERGIES | |
Investments in emissions mitigation | Wind and Solar | Renewable diesel |
(scopes 1 and 2) - E&P, RTM and G&P | Photovoltaic Energies | Bio Jet Fuel |
US$ 2.9 billion | US$ 5.2 billion | |
Decarbonization Fund | Hydrogen, CCUS and CVC | |
US$ 1.0 billion | US$ 0.3 billion |
US$ 11.5 billion (11% of total CAPEX)
INTERNA
US$ 0.7 billion
INCREASING OVER
THE FIVE-YEAR
PERIOD
15% of the total R&D
budget in 2024,
reaching 30% by the
end of the period
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PETROBRAS - Petróleo Brasileiro SA published this content on 09 May 2024 and is solely responsible for the information contained therein. Distributed by Public, unedited and unaltered, on 09 May 2024 14:03:08 UTC.