Financials Orica Limited

Equities

ORI

AU000000ORI1

Commodity Chemicals

Market Closed - Australian S.E. Other stock markets 11:40:52 31/05/2024 am IST			5-day change	1st Jan Change
18.32 ^AUD	+0.71%		-1.87%	+14.93%

23/05	Orica Names New CFO, Rolls Out Executive Committee Changes	MT
13/05	Australia's Orica looking to increase exports from Colombia operation	RE

Valuation

Fiscal Period: September	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026
Capitalization ¹	8,578	6,263	5,620	6,022	7,101	8,905	-	-
Enterprise Value (EV) ¹	10,199	8,382	7,359	7,173	8,321	10,910	10,690	10,445
P/E ratio	35.1 x	36.4 x	-32.3 x	91.2 x	24.2 x	17.7 x	17.2 x	15.3 x
Yield	2.44%	2.14%	1.74%	2.65%	2.76%	2.45%	2.97%	3.38%
Capitalization / Revenue	1.46 x	1.12 x	0.99 x	0.82 x	0.89 x	1.14 x	1.05 x	1.03 x
EV / Revenue	1.74 x	1.49 x	1.3 x	0.98 x	1.05 x	1.39 x	1.27 x	1.21 x
EV / EBITDA	10.8 x	8.77 x	9.24 x	7.44 x	7.63 x	8.84 x	7.45 x	6.88 x
EV / FCF	31.6 x	-34 x	23.5 x	166 x	18.1 x	31.1 x	17.2 x	13.9 x
FCF Yield	3.16%	-2.94%	4.26%	0.6%	5.52%	3.21%	5.81%	7.21%
Price to Book	2.89 x	1.95 x	2.06 x	1.62 x	1.78 x	1.83 x	1.75 x	1.65 x
Nbr of stocks (in thousands)	3,80,577	4,05,879	4,07,513	4,55,494	4,55,492	4,86,106	-	-
Reference price ²	22.54	15.43	13.79	13.22	15.59	18.32	18.32	18.32
Announcement Date	31/10/19	19/11/20	10/11/21	08/11/22	08/11/23	-	-	-

¹AUD in Million²AUD

Estimates

Income Statement Evolution (Annual data)

Fiscal Period: September	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026
Net sales ¹	5,878	5,611	5,682	7,328	7,945	7,841	8,445	8,640
EBITDA ¹	941.1	955.8	796.4	964.3	1,091	1,234	1,435	1,518
EBIT ¹	664.7	604.5	426.6	578.5	698.1	799	965.8	1,041
Operating Margin	11.31%	10.77%	7.51%	7.89%	8.79%	10.19%	11.44%	12.05%
Earnings before Tax (EBT) ¹	359.1	284.5	-132.9	204.2	383.2	658.4	780.2	885.1
Net income ¹	245.1	168.3	-173.8	60.1	295.7	533.1	523.4	588.8
Net margin	4.17%	3%	-3.06%	0.82%	3.72%	6.8%	6.2%	6.81%
EPS ²	0.6420	0.4240	-0.4270	0.1450	0.6450	1.033	1.065	1.194
Free Cash Flow ¹	322.4	-246.7	313.5	43.2	459.6	350.5	621.5	753
FCF margin	5.48%	-4.4%	5.52%	0.59%	5.78%	4.47%	7.36%	8.72%
FCF Conversion (EBITDA)	34.26%	-	39.36%	4.48%	42.14%	28.4%	43.3%	49.62%
FCF Conversion (Net income)	131.54%	-	-	71.88%	155.43%	65.74%	118.74%	127.89%
Dividend per Share ²	0.5500	0.3300	0.2400	0.3500	0.4300	0.4483	0.5445	0.6195
Announcement Date	31/10/19	19/11/20	10/11/21	08/11/22	08/11/23	-	-	-

¹AUD in Million²AUD

Estimates

Income Statement Evolution (Quarterly data)

Fiscal Period: September	2020 S1	2020 S2	2021 S1	2021 S2	2022 S1	2022 Q3	2022 Q4	2022 S2	2023 S1	2023 S2	2024 S1	2024 S2	2025 S1	2025 S2	2026 S1
Net sales	2,880	2,731	2,623	3,059	3,277	-	-	4,050	3,998	3,947	3,657	4,090	4,033	4,352	4,101
EBITDA	479.7	476.1	361.5	434.9	423.7	-	-	540.6	505.3	585.3	556.5	672.6	651	742	-
EBIT	308.6	295.9	151.8	274.8	244.9	-	-	333.6	322.6	375.5	353.7	435.5	471.1	497	504.1
Operating Margin	10.71%	10.83%	5.79%	8.98%	7.47%	-	-	8.24%	8.07%	9.51%	9.67%	10.65%	11.68%	11.42%	12.29%
Earnings before Tax (EBT)	245.6	-	89.5	-	50.3	-	-	153.9	153.7	229.5	-	365	-	-	-
Net income	165.2	-	76.7	-250.5	-84.6	-	-	144.7	122.6	173.1	337.5	241	-	-	-
Net margin	5.74%	-	2.92%	-8.19%	-2.58%	-	-	3.57%	3.07%	4.39%	9.23%	5.89%	-	-	-
EPS	0.4270	-	0.1880	-	-0.2070	-	-	0.3520	0.2680	0.3770	0.7230	0.5220	-	-	-
Dividend per Share ¹	0.2200	-	0.0750	0.1650	0.1300	0.1100	0.1100	0.2200	0.1800	0.2500	-	0.2700	-	-	-
Announcement Date	07/05/20	19/11/20	12/05/21	10/11/21	11/05/22	08/08/22	08/11/22	08/11/22	10/05/23	08/11/23	08/05/24	-	-	-	-

¹AUD

Estimates

Balance Sheet Analysis

Fiscal Period: September	2019	2020	2021	2022	2023	2024	2025	2026
Net Debt ¹	1,621	2,119	1,739	1,152	1,220	2,004	1,784	1,540
Net Cash position ¹	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	-
Leverage (Debt/EBITDA)	1.722 x	2.217 x	2.184 x	1.194 x	1.119 x	1.624 x	1.243 x	1.015 x
Free Cash Flow ¹	322	-247	314	43.2	460	350	621	753
ROE (net income / shareholders' equity)	12.7%	9.8%	7.42%	9.89%	9.62%	9.37%	10.5%	11.2%
ROA (Net income/ Total Assets)	5.14%	3.8%	2.68%	4.03%	4.31%	5.76%	6.54%	7.25%
Assets ¹	4,765	4,430	-6,492	1,491	6,866	9,261	8,002	8,120
Book Value Per Share ²	7.810	7.900	6.690	8.140	8.760	10.00	10.50	11.10
Cash Flow per Share ²	1.960	0.7000	1.520	0.8700	1.980	1.440	1.910	2.130
Capex ¹	424	524	305	319	439	416	444	442
Capex / Sales	7.21%	9.34%	5.37%	4.35%	5.53%	5.31%	5.26%	5.11%
Announcement Date	31/10/19	19/11/20	10/11/21	08/11/22	08/11/23	-	-	-

¹AUD in Million²AUD

Estimates

EPS & Dividend

Year-on-year evolution of the PER

Year-on-year evolution of the Yield

Change in Enterprise Value/EBITDA

Ratings for Orica Limited

Trading Rating

Investor Rating

ESG Refinitiv

B-

More Ratings

Analysts' Consensus

Sell

Buy

Mean consensus

OUTPERFORM

Number of Analysts

Last Close Price

18.32 AUD

Average target price

20.14 AUD

Spread / Average Target

+9.94%

Consensus

EPS Revisions

Estimates Revisions

Quarterly earnings - Rate of surprise

Company calendar

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Explosives