Projected Income Statement: Petrobras

Forecast Balance Sheet: Petrobras

Fiscal Period: December 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028
Net Debt 1 2,65,778 2,24,510 2,27,799 3,04,800 3,19,931 2,85,087 2,64,543 2,50,727
Change - -15.53% 1.46% 33.8% 4.96% -10.89% -7.21% -5.22%
Announcement Date 24/02/22 02/03/23 08/03/24 26/02/25 06/03/26 - - -
1BRL in Million
Estimates

Cash Flow Forecast: Petrobras

Fiscal Period: December 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028
CAPEX 1 34,134 49,656 62,297 85,442 1,03,071 93,070 95,702 95,109
Change - 45.47% 25.46% 37.15% 20.63% -9.7% 2.83% -0.62%
Free Cash Flow (FCF) 1 1,68,992 2,05,754 1,59,925 1,36,180 87,257 1,19,557 1,06,943 1,01,767
Change - 21.75% -22.27% -14.85% -35.92% 37.02% -10.55% -4.84%
Announcement Date 24/02/22 02/03/23 08/03/24 26/02/25 06/03/26 - - -
1BRL in Million
Estimates

Forecast Financial Ratios: Petrobras

Fiscal Period: December 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028

Profitability

        
EBITDA Margin (%) 51.82% 53.1% 51.18% 50.19% 49.07% 52.31% 52.32% 52.5%
EBIT Margin (%) 37.89% 42.46% 38.21% 36.54% 32.09% 37.59% 35.11% 34.17%
EBT Margin (%) 33.48% 42.88% 34.56% 12.19% 30.04% 34.49% 30.92% 30.52%
Net margin (%) 23.56% 29.37% 24.3% 8.23% 22.01% 23.51% 21.13% 20.38%
FCF margin (%) 37.33% 32.09% 31.36% 25.8% 18.53% 21.25% 19.85% 19.51%
FCF / Net Income (%) 158.43% 109.25% 129.05% 313.25% 84.17% 90.37% 93.94% 95.74%

Profitability

        
ROA 10.88% 19.32% 12.29% 9.72% 8.97% 10.44% 8.91% 8.73%
ROE 30.66% 50.23% 33.54% 28.14% 29.04% 28.01% 20.69% 17.96%

Financial Health

        
Leverage (Debt/EBITDA) 1.13x 0.66x 0.87x 1.15x 1.38x 0.97x 0.94x 0.92x
Debt / Free cash flow 1.57x 1.09x 1.42x 2.24x 3.67x 2.38x 2.47x 2.46x

Capital Intensity

        
CAPEX / Current Assets (%) 7.54% 7.74% 12.22% 16.18% 21.89% 16.54% 17.76% 18.24%
CAPEX / EBITDA (%) 14.55% 14.58% 23.87% 32.24% 44.6% 31.62% 33.95% 34.74%
CAPEX / FCF (%) 20.2% 24.13% 38.95% 62.74% 118.12% 77.85% 89.49% 93.46%

Items per share

        
Cash flow per share 1 15.57 19.58 16.56 15.82 14.77 16.08 15.5 16.25
Change - 25.74% -15.41% -4.5% -6.65% 8.87% -3.59% 4.84%
Dividend per Share 1 8.534 15.09 5.569 5.734 3.199 5.146 5.708 6.051
Change - 76.82% -63.09% 2.96% -44.21% 60.84% 10.93% 5.99%
Book Value Per Share 1 29.69 27.8 29.4 28.4 30.96 38.35 42.68 46.55
Change - -6.39% 5.77% -3.41% 9.01% 23.9% 11.29% 9.06%
EPS 1 8.18 14.44 9.57 2.84 8.026 12.07 8.909 8.632
Change - 76.53% -33.73% -70.32% 182.59% 50.39% -26.19% -3.1%
Nbr of stocks (in thousands) 1,30,44,201 1,30,44,201 1,30,15,466 1,28,88,733 1,28,88,733 1,28,88,733 1,28,88,733 1,28,88,733
Announcement Date 24/02/22 02/03/23 08/03/24 26/02/25 06/03/26 - - -
1BRL
Estimates
2026 *2027 *
P/E 3.41x 4.62x
PBR 1.07x 0.96x
EV / Sales 1.51x 1.54x
Yield 12.5% 13.9%

EPS & Dividend

Y-o-Y evolution of P/E

Year-on-year evolution of the Yield

Trader
Investor
Global
Quality
ESG MSCI
-
Sell
Consensus
Buy
Mean consensus
BUY
Number of Analysts
13
Last Close Price
41.15BRL
Average target price
54.95BRL
Spread / Average Target
+33.55%

Quarterly revenue - Rate of surprise