Tech vs. Turmoil

Can AI keep dazzling investors, and can that optimism survive a far harsher reality of war, oil shocks, and nervous central banks? As crude prices climb and disruption in the Strait of Hormuz ripples through inflationary expectations, policymakers are being forced to navigate a world where slowing growth and rising costs are colliding at once. For now, U.S. markets are holding together on the back of tech resilience and relative energy strength, but the balance looks increasingly precarious.

Investors still want to believe in AI. That is the first story of the week. They still want to believe that, whatever else is happening in the world, the technology trade can keep carrying the market forward. Nvidia's conference this week matters for that reason. So do Micron and Foxconn's results. The market wants proof that AI is not just expensive, but durable and useful in everyday business. That question will hang over the week like a bright, humming server rack. 

But the second story is the one that matters more. Oil is hovering around $100 to $105 a barrel. The Strait of Hormuz remains badly disrupted. The United States struck Kharg Island over the weekend, targeting a site central to Iran's oil exports. Washington is now trying to build an international coalition to secure shipping through the strait, with limited public enthusiasm from other countries. Everyone agrees that safe passage would be nice. Fewer seem eager to volunteer for the job.

The coming week will revolve around that awkwardness. Central banks from Washington to Tokyo to London to Frankfurt are gathering just as the global economy is being asked two conflicting questions. Is growth weakening? And is inflation about to heat up again?

Usually, policymakers can respond to one problem at a time. If the labor market softens, they can cut rates. If inflation rises, they can hold firm or tighten. But an energy shock scrambles the script, since higher oil prices act like a tax on the world. They squeeze households, raise business costs, and complicate any hope of easy monetary relief. That's why the Federal Reserve is so unlikely to move this week.

Markets have adjusted accordingly. Expectations for Fed rate cuts have been pushed further out. Not long ago, investors were thinking a cut might come by July. Now the betting points to later in the year, after October. In Europe, expectations have shifted even more sharply, with traders moving from rate-cut hopes to the possibility of hikes. Nobody sounds especially confident about this.

And yet U.S. equities have held up better than many global peers, since it still has two cushions others do not. First, the U.S. is a net oil exporter, which softens some of the blow from higher crude. Second, the same technology stocks that got battered earlier have bounced back enough to keep the broader indexes from looking worse.

Yesterday's session captured that fragile logic. Energy stocks rose. Crypto-linked stocks rose with bitcoin. Travel names were steady rather than collapsing. Treasury yields eased as investors shifted attention toward the Fed. The dollar stayed strong. Gold slipped. Aluminum remained elevated because the Middle East conflict is now disrupting not only oil but also supply chains for metals and raw materials. Bahrain has already frozen part of its aluminum output to preserve inventory.

The war in the Middle East would already be a serious macroeconomic threat on its own. But it has arrived in a year that already felt absurdly overcrowded. Investors have spent just the first ten weeks of 2026 ricocheting from one source of anxiety to another: geopolitical shocks, tariff uncertainty, private-credit worries, AI disruption, labor-market concerns. The first quarter has had the emotional pacing of a decade. At this rate, by April, everyone on Wall Street may qualify for honorary retirement.

Private credit is a good example of how these risks interact. The sector has grown rapidly and, until recently, comfortably. Small cracks are now appearing. As long as the economy keeps moving, those cracks can be managed. But if growth slows sharply, defaults rise, liquidity tightens, and a contained worry starts looking systemic.

We have seen versions of this before. In 2022, markets had to digest inflation, war, and aggressive rate hikes. Last year, recession fears and tariff worries flared, only for some of the bleakest scenarios to soften as politics shifted and AI spending remained strong. Equities often recover not because the world becomes simple again, but because reality turns out to be slightly less terrible than feared.

That may happen again. If shipping through Hormuz starts to normalize, oil prices could ease. If central banks stay steady without sounding panicked, investors may take comfort. If AI spending continues to produce real growth rather than just enormous invoices, tech could keep acting as a stabilizer. 

Today's Economic Highlights:

Today's agenda includes: in China, the House Price Index, Retail Sales, Fixed Asset Investment, and Industrial Production will be released; FDI data will also be available. In Canada, Housing Starts and Inflation Rates will be in focus. In the United States, Retail Sales, Retail Inventories, the NY Empire State Manufacturing Index, Industrial Production, Business Inventories, and the NAHB Housing Market Index are expected. See the full calendar here.

• Dollar index: 100.047
• Gold: $4,983
• Crude Oil (BRENT): $103.3 (WTI) $97.60
• United States 10 years: 4.25%
• BITCOIN: $73,730

In corporate news:

• Nvidia: CEO Jensen Huang is expected to use GTC to unveil the company's next chips and software, with a likely focus on inference, AI agents, robotics, and Groq technology.
• Meta Platforms, Amazon, Autodesk, Atlassian, and other U.S. companies are continuing job cuts in 2026 to fund AI investment and improve efficiency.
• Nebius and Meta Platforms signed a five-year AI infrastructure deal worth up to $27 billion, including $12 billion in dedicated capacity.
• S&P Global: UK consumer sentiment worsened again in March as households grew more pessimistic about finances and job security.
• Dollar Tree: the retailer reported annual results and forecast soft 2026 sales, pointing to weaker spending from budget-conscious consumers.
• PulteGroup: the homebuilder nominated Ben Schall for election to its board of directors.
• JPMorgan Chase: the bank said its credit card delinquency rate was 0.92% at the end of February, with a charge-off rate of 1.66%.
• Alphabet/Google: European publishers, startups, and tech groups are urging Brussels to conclude its DMA probe quickly and fine Google over alleged search self-preferencing.
• Janus Living: the senior housing REIT being spun out of Healthpeak Properties is targeting up to $740 million in a U.S. IPO.
• PhonePe and Walmart: the Indian fintech paused its IPO plans because geopolitical tensions have increased market volatility.
• CRH: the building materials group will delist from London, keep only its New York listing, and plans to cancel its preference shares.
• Foxconn: the Taiwanese manufacturer reported quarterly profit below expectations but kept a strong 2026 growth outlook driven by AI server demand.
• Citibank: the bank is keeping most of its UAE branches closed because of worsening security conditions tied to the Iran conflict.
• Citigroup: the bank appointed Indran Thana as ASEAN head of real estate investment banking, effective June 2026.
• inDrive: the ride-hailing app said 2025 revenue rose 31% to $601.6 million and that it plans to expand further into delivery through acquisitions.
• The chief executives of Exxon, Chevron and ConocoPhillips have warned the Trump administration that a conflict with Iran in the Strait of Hormuz would worsen the energy crisis, according to the Wall Street Journal.
• GSK Plc and Amgen will add drugs to TrumpRx, according to Fox.
• Nvidia opens its annual developers conference today.
• Elon Musk says Tesla will launch its chip factory project within a week.
• JD.com is reportedly preparing to launch its e-commerce services in Europe.
• The success of the new Pokémon game has sent Nintendo shares sharply higher.
• BYD will launch a high-end fast-charging electric vehicle in Europe next month.
• PayPay's chief executive is considering a potential listing in Tokyo after the company's debut on the US market.

Analyst Recommendations:

• Circle Internet Group, Inc.: Clear Street LLC upgrades to buy from hold and raises the target price from USD 92 to USD 136.
• Eaton Corporation Plc: Jefferies upgrades to buy from restricted with a target price of USD 430.
• Ecolab Inc.: Berenberg upgrades to buy from hold and raises the target price from USD 300 to USD 326.
• Flutter Entertainment Plc: Kepler Cheuvreux downgrades to hold from buy and reduces the target price from GBX 18162 to GBX 8600.
• Intuit Inc.: BNP Paribas upgrades to neutral from underperform with a price target raised from USD 340 to USD 463.
• Qualcomm, Inc.: Seaport Global downgrades to sell from neutral with a target price of USD 100.
• Rocket Companies, Inc.: Keefe Bruyette & Woods upgrades to outperform from market perform and raises the target price from USD 20 to USD 22.
• Servicenow, Inc.: BNP Paribas upgrades to outperform from neutral with a price target raised from USD 120 to USD 140.
• Upstart Holdings, Inc.: BTIG upgrades to buy from neutral with a target price of USD 43.
• Accenture Plc: Morgan Stanley maintains its overweight recommendation and reduces the target price from USD 320 to USD 240.
• Adobe Inc.: CITIC Securities Co Ltd maintains its buy recommendation and reduces the target price from USD 496 to USD 358.
• Alaska Air Group, Inc.: UBS maintains its buy recommendation and reduces the target price from USD 77 to USD 60.
• American Airlines Group Inc.: UBS maintains its buy recommendation and reduces the target price from USD 21 to USD 15.
• Bellring Brands, Inc.: Jefferies maintains its buy recommendation and reduces the target price from USD 38 to USD 28.
• Chevron Corporation: Jefferies maintains its buy recommendation and raises the target price from USD 189 to USD 227.
• Chord Energy Corporation: Wells Fargo maintains its overweight recommendation and raises the target price from USD 109 to USD 136.
• Eog Resources, Inc.: Wells Fargo maintains its overweight recommendation and raises the target price from USD 127 to USD 155.
• Marathon Petroleum Corporation: Jefferies maintains its buy recommendation and raises the target price from USD 205 to USD 263.
• Micron Technology, Inc.: RBC Capital maintains its outperform rating and raises the target price from USD 425 to USD 525.
• Mongodb, Inc.: Morgan Stanley maintains its overweight recommendation and reduces the target price from USD 440 to USD 335.
• Permian Resources Corporation: Wells Fargo maintains its overweight recommendation and raises the target price from USD 17 to USD 21.
• Valero Energy Corporation: Jefferies maintains its buy recommendation and raises the target price from USD 216 to USD 272.