The last week of July confirmed there are two kinds of stocks right now: those tracing fairly linear paths, and those driven by emotion. Or rather, driven by AI exposure. That's what sent Amazon up 15% and Apple down 7.3% on Friday. Given the size of both companies, those moves shift enormous amounts of money. Thursday it was Microsoft's turn, up more than 15%. And that's without even mentioning South Korea's KOSPI, which dropped 11% last Tuesday before rebounding 18% on Friday.

Beyond the wild swings and the memorable wipeouts, investors will likely take away three things at the midpoint of summer.

First, July ended well for tech, which rebounded after a sharp initial drop. The Nasdaq 100 did lose 6.6% between July 1 and July 31, but the slide in semiconductors stopped last Thursday, helped by hopes of bargain-hunting in a space where entry points aren't obvious right now.

Second, assets less tied to AI are holding up reasonably well, and in any case with far less drama. The S&P 500 and Dow Jones are roughly flat for the month. In Europe, the Stoxx Europe 600 gained 1.2% in July, its fourth straight month of gains. It's up 9.6% for 2026, or 11.7% including dividends.

Third, the Middle East conflict keeps moving oil prices, but the indices less so. Crude is falling sharply this morning after news of fresh talks between Iran and the US starting this afternoon. Over the weekend, Donald Trump backed away from what he called "the biggest attack since World War II." Brent crude dropped 7%, back into the $80–85 range. It's not clear whether this latest twist will lead to a real resolution, but it's landing just as the semiconductor bleeding appears to have stopped, adding to the short-term positives. Falling oil also eases fears of rate hikes, which markets will always take.

What to know to start the week:

  • Japan confirmed a joint intervention with the US to support the yen late last week.
  • OPEC+ will slightly raise oil output in September.
  • FIFA has dropped plans to open the World Cup to private capital.
  • Kevin Warsh is reportedly considering cutting the frequency of Fed policy meetings, according to the New York Times.
  • Lula, 80, has officially entered Brazil's presidential race, seeking a fourth term.
  • The AI model war continues. On Friday, China's DeepSeek launched a public API for its most advanced model, V4 Flash. Fellow Chinese firm Alibaba unveiled Qwen 3.8-Max, its best-performing model to date.
  • On the economic calendar: US July jobs numbers are the headline event of the week, but they won't land until Friday.
  • On the corporate calendar: earnings season stays busy, with more than 200 companies reporting across the Stoxx Europe 600 and S&P 500 — including Palantir, SpaceX, Eli Lilly, and Sandisk in the US, and HSBC, Siemens Energy, and Allianz in Europe.

In Asia-Pacific, the same split holds. South Korea, and to a lesser extent Taiwan and Japan, have become AI-driven equity markets. Other markets are behaving more traditionally. Korea's KOSPI is down 5% this morning, after Friday's 18% surge. Japan's Nikkei 225 is down 1%, following Friday's 4.2% gain. Australia and Hong Kong are up 0.1%. Something's brewing in India, where the SENSEX is on its fourth straight day of gains.

Today's economic highlights:

Manufacturing data dominates Monday. ISM Manufacturing PMI at 10am is the one to watch — forecast at 54, up from 53.3, with three flames signaling high impact. Prices Paid (70 vs. 73) and New Orders (55.4 vs. 56) round out the release, while Employment stays pinned below 50 at 49.8. S&P Global's final PMI prints earlier at 9:45am (53.8 vs. 53.9). Afternoon is lighter: bill auctions at 11:30am, the Fed's Loan Officer Survey at 2pm, and Treasury's refunding estimates at 3pm.

  • Dollar index: 100.155
  • Gold: $4,056
  • Crude Oil (BRENT): 83.07 (WTI) 79.1
  • United States 10 years: 4,70% (-0,1%)
  • BITCOIN: 62,475

In corporate news:

  • Alibaba unveiled a new AI model on Monday, Qwen3.8-Max, which the Chinese group calls its largest and most capable yet, with 2.4 trillion parameters. Shares jumped 7.7% in Hong Kong trading to their highest level since June 3, and the Wall Street-listed stock could open up 4.3%.
  • Allegiant Travel - a union said Monday that nearly 1,300 pilots at the budget carrier ratified a new two-year labor agreement, securing higher hourly pay along with improved retirement benefits and working conditions.
  • Amgen said Friday that hackers stole company data and patient medical information in a cybersecurity incident involving cloud storage systems managed by third-party vendors, making it the latest healthcare company to disclose a breach. Recent cyberattacks have also hit companies including Abbott Laboratories, Clover Health, Stryker, Medtronic, and West Pharmaceutical Services.
  • Apollo Global Management - EasyJet pushed back Monday the deadline given to Castlelake to August 7 to decide whether to make a firm takeover offer, aligning it with the deadline set for Apollo as the fight for control of the British budget airline enters a decisive week.
  • Bristol Myers Squibb and AstraZeneca held early talks about a possible merger that would create one of the world's largest pharmaceutical companies, with a combined value near $400 billion, according to a source close to the matter.
  • Integer Holdings - private equity giant KKR will acquire the medical device outsourcing company in an all-cash deal valued at $5.7 billion, the company announced Monday. Integer Holdings shares rose 2.1% to $123.75 premarket.
  • Marriott raised its full-year forecast for revenue per available room on Monday, betting that strong travel demand will keep driving bookings at its properties.
  • Tesla's registrations across several European markets showed a mixed picture in July, with sharp gains in France (+86%) and Denmark (+52%) contrasting with steep declines in Norway (-97%) and Sweden (-60%), according to data from various industry bodies. Overall EV registrations in Europe rose 51% in June, according to the European Automobile Manufacturers' Association.
Analyst Recommendations:
  • American Electric Power: Barclays maintains its equalweight recommendation with a price target reduced from 138 to USD 129.
  • Bok Financial: Barclays maintains its equalweight recommendation with a price target raised from 150 to USD 155.
  • Chevron: HSBC maintains its buy recommendation with a price target reduced from 221 to USD 218.
  • Church & Dwight: Raymond James maintains its outperform recommendation with a price target raised from 110 to USD 112.
  • Colgate-Palmolive: Raymond James maintains its outperform recommendation with a price target raised from 100 to USD 102.
  • East West Bancorp: Barclays maintains its overweight recommendation with a price target raised from 150 to USD 155.
  • Eastman Chemical: UBS maintains its buy recommendation with a price target raised from 89 to USD 92.
  • Ebay: Bernstein maintains its market perform recommendation with a price target raised from 100 to USD 115.
  • Etsy: Bernstein maintains its market perform recommendation with a price target raised from USD 65 to USD 90.
  • Gaming And Leisure Properties: RBC Capital Markets maintains its outperform recommendation with a price target reduced from 54 to USD 52.
  • Idacorp: Barclays maintains its overweight recommendation with a price target reduced from 167 to USD 162.
  • Linde: Deutsche Bank maintains its buy recommendation with a price target reduced from USD 580 to USD 575.
  • Mohawk Industries: Barclays maintains its equalweight recommendation with a price target raised from 109 to USD 115.
  • Omnicom Group: Goldman Sachs maintains its buy recommendation with a price target raised from 138 to USD 139.
  • Rbc Bearings: Morgan Stanley maintains its overweight recommendation with a price target raised from 640 to USD 655.
  • Rtx: Bernstein maintains its market perform recommendation with a price target raised from 213 to USD 232.
  • Stryker: Citizens maintains its market outperform recommendation with a price target reduced from 440 to USD 400.
  • Umb Financial: Barclays maintains its overweight recommendation with a price target raised from 170 to USD 175.
  • Wesco International: Barclays maintains its overweight recommendation with a price target raised from 376 to USD 390.